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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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^^^ A club would NEVER pick a FS or NGA player with their own pick high in the draft (possibly very late in the draft as their list spots dwindle) ... they would miss out on the discount. Far better to wait for the player to be bid on and match taking the discount.
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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| LaurieHolden wrote: | Just an outlier for those following the prospects in the coming draft.
There's a young Lions Academy player named Connor McFadyen I'd have before any of our Acadamey prospects. This kid will be a gun and has Captaincy potential. Looms as the T-600 model of Taylor Adams.
While I could envisage Lions not taking him at 3, this kid will go top 10 so the Lions will have to roll forward their likely next pick 21 (878 points) and compile sufficient points via trading up remaining + future picks to match any offers.
I can't see the Lions letting him go, but if there was any chance we could secure him, we need to have a crack. With a slew of father sons and Academy players available in a very strong draft, this might be the spanner in the works that could see clubs forced into a corner. |
Thanks for the insight Laurie. Cal Twomey has him ranked at 20 so may not be an outlier.
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Albert Parker
Joined: 13 Dec 2012
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| Pies2016 wrote: | | MightyMagpie wrote: | ^^^
I have mixed feelings about Lynch and May.
Lynch should not affect the above as I expect him to go as an FA and only cost $ if we get him.
May is contracted for 2019 and will cost in trade chips.
There are other less celebrated possibilities (let’s call them the Mihocek types) for those roles at least at a depth level - eg Sam Collins.
It’s hard, but getting the “value” picks/trades right makes a huge difference. Compare to getting Treloar who is a gun, but we gave up (potentially) two roughly Jaidyn Stephenson quality players for him. |
And I completely see your angle too. It’s a tough one.
If Dunn and Shaz hadn’t done knees and Reid and Moore hadn’t had injury history’s, I think I would have a different take.
What we do know, is that securing Kelly at a discounted rate, is a must.
The other trend that is starting to gather legs, is that 10 year quality KPPs are becoming harder to identify through the draft. So many first round talls in recent times have found it difficult to make the step up, possibly off the back of the anti density rules in the TAC.
I like the idea of knowing what you get with May and ( less likely ) Lynch. They will continue to be walk up starts for the next five years, barring injury.
As you alluded to earlier, hopefully the club has identified a low profile mature age player out there who can do that job and slot in ready made for 2019.
It can be done, just ask Tom Stewart. |
Good perspective
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John LEWIN
Joined: 19 Aug 2017
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Two thoughts, will Kirby ever play again? Is Jamie part of the future?
The second is the more problematic because I have had so much enjoyment watching him play. But, the way he plays is on the edge of injury all the time. Extraordinary physical commitment of the body to the ball. You have to wonder if it can last much longer?
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LaurieHolden 
Floreat Gymnorhina tyrannica
Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Location: Victoria Park
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| MightyMagpie wrote: | | ^^^ A club would NEVER pick a FS or NGA player with their own pick high in the draft (possibly very late in the draft as their list spots dwindle) ... they would miss out on the discount. Far better to wait for the player to be bid on and match taking the discount. |
That's where I was going, i.e. that the Lions won't / mightn't get the choice, if someone else bids for him, akin to when the Dogs bid on Moore forcing us to match and go earlier than expected. (we still owe them for that one)
Will be a compelling draft, despite the AFL's attempts that'll likely turn it into a low grade TV drama over 2 days.
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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| LaurieHolden wrote: | | MightyMagpie wrote: | | ^^^ A club would NEVER pick a FS or NGA player with their own pick high in the draft (possibly very late in the draft as their list spots dwindle) ... they would miss out on the discount. Far better to wait for the player to be bid on and match taking the discount. |
That's where I was going, i.e. that the Lions won't / mightn't get the choice, if someone else bids for him, akin to when the Dogs bid on Moore forcing us to match and go earlier than expected. (we still owe them for that one)
Will be a compelling draft, despite the AFL's attempts that'll likely turn it into a low grade TV drama over 2 days. |
If you look at M Ms link to Cal Twoneys draft guide, I think you will find that his top 8 are just about set in stone ( order may be different depending on which clubs have those picks on the day) All players through to Rozee are stand outs.
If Brisbane keep their first pick, even with priority picks and compensation added, they are likely to get to pick a first rounder before McFadyens name is called out by another club.
I had a look at his highlights and read up on him. He certainly looks a talent, good size mid and made the all Australian team but I would be shocked if he squeezed into the top 10 of this talent pool.
As you said earlier though, we have never seen so many machinations and permutations unfold at a draft on the back of NGA players and quality father son selections. |
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qldmagpie67
Joined: 18 Dec 2008
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MM very impressive summaries and many thanks for the weekly updates. The bean counter nerd in me loved them
Just another spanner for the works.
We do have some trade value on our list be it minimal value but would assist in protecting our 2019 1st round pick
If Faz goes to Carlton as rumoured we get there 3rd round pick which if my calculations are correct would be around 56/57 (please correct me if I'm wrong)
We also have Elliott who at his best is great but his now serious injury history would seriously didn't his value but we may well get a another 3rd round pick form a team looking for a good small forward (if we believe he isn't in our long term plans)
I'm a huge WHE fan but if we could turn him into a massive 1st round upgrade this season it may be worth considering with the talent available
Giving WHE and our 1st round pick (likley 13/14) we could get ourselves easily into the top 5 or at worst top 10 and a second secound rounder as well.
The remaining players like Blair Oxley Smith Langdon wouldn't bring more than a late 3rd or 4th round picks which would be handy points at best |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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| qldmagpie67 wrote: | MM very impressive summaries and many thanks for the weekly updates. The bean counter nerd in me loved them
Just another spanner for the works.
We do have some trade value on our list be it minimal value but would assist in protecting our 2019 1st round pick
If Faz goes to Carlton as rumoured we get there 3rd round pick which if my calculations are correct would be around 56/57 (please correct me if I'm wrong)
We also have Elliott who at his best is great but his now serious injury history would seriously didn't his value but we may well get a another 3rd round pick form a team looking for a good small forward (if we believe he isn't in our long term plans)
I'm a huge WHE fan but if we could turn him into a massive 1st round upgrade this season it may be worth considering with the talent available
Giving WHE and our 1st round pick (likley 13/14) we could get ourselves easily into the top 5 or at worst top 10 and a second secound rounder as well.
The remaining players like Blair Oxley Smith Langdon wouldn't bring more than a late 3rd or 4th round picks which would be handy points at best |
Thanks QMP. FA comp picks can't be used for points.
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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| MightyMagpie wrote: | | qldmagpie67 wrote: | MM very impressive summaries and many thanks for the weekly updates. The bean counter nerd in me loved them
Just another spanner for the works.
We do have some trade value on our list be it minimal value but would assist in protecting our 2019 1st round pick
If Faz goes to Carlton as rumoured we get there 3rd round pick which if my calculations are correct would be around 56/57 (please correct me if I'm wrong)
We also have Elliott who at his best is great but his now serious injury history would seriously didn't his value but we may well get a another 3rd round pick form a team looking for a good small forward (if we believe he isn't in our long term plans)
I'm a huge WHE fan but if we could turn him into a massive 1st round upgrade this season it may be worth considering with the talent available
Giving WHE and our 1st round pick (likley 13/14) we could get ourselves easily into the top 5 or at worst top 10 and a second secound rounder as well.
The remaining players like Blair Oxley Smith Langdon wouldn't bring more than a late 3rd or 4th round picks which would be handy points at best |
Thanks QMP. FA comp picks can't be used for points. |
M M, just a thought, I’m wondering what would stop us from trading that compo pick for a combination of later picks that equalled the same number of points in value. Unless there’s a rule in place that further restricts compo pick options, that would seem like a pretty easy way to get around that “ hinderance “ |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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^^^ I think that is possible (assuming a willing trade partner).
The only restriction I'm aware of is as posted in the OP:
"(b) For the avoidance of doubt, any entitlement to a compensatory selection:
(i) may be exchanged in accordance with the AFL Rules;
(ii) cannot be utilised pursuant to the Father/Son rule; and
(iii) cannot be utilised pursuant to the Listing of Club Academy Player."
The point to realise is that an FA comp pick is less valuable than other pick types at the same point in the draft.
Strictly speaking they have zero points value, so you would be looking for a trade partner that doesn't have a need for points and would actually select with that pick.
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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^^^
Cheers M M.
Ok, so it looks like we can’t find a condition that says it can’t be done.
That’s a start.
Having three third rounders ( Pies, Swans and Faz if approved ) at least allows for some extra flexibilty in the trade / draft period to explore a number of player options. |
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Albert Parker
Joined: 13 Dec 2012
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| qldmagpie67 wrote: | .......
I'm a huge WHE fan but if we could turn him into a massive 1st round upgrade this season it may be worth considering with the talent available
Giving WHE and our 1st round pick (likley 13/14) we could get ourselves easily into the top 5 or at worst top 10 and a second secound rounder as well.
The remaining players like Blair Oxley Smith Langdon wouldn't bring more than a late 3rd or 4th round picks which would be handy points at best |
"I am a huge WHE fan....." but you then suggest trading him,
- as a No 4 pick of a few seasons ago himself,
- who has developed and is having the best season of his career and
- tops our goal kicking in a team ranked top 3 for scoring
in addition to swapping our pick 13-14 (which as a single pick should get us a pretty good player in a reasonable draft anyhow and for which we can probably reasonably expect to get Isaac Quaynor at a discount)
so that we can secure a top 5 pick in the draft this season???
Respectfully, this is possibly one of the more ill-conceived ideas that I have ever seen raised on this site.
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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Tom Browne reporting Josh Daicos close to a 2 year extension.
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| qldmagpie67 wrote: | MM very impressive summaries and many thanks for the weekly updates. The bean counter nerd in me loved them
Just another spanner for the works.
We do have some trade value on our list be it minimal value but would assist in protecting our 2019 1st round pick
If Faz goes to Carlton as rumoured we get there 3rd round pick which if my calculations are correct would be around 56/57 (please correct me if I'm wrong)
We also have Elliott who at his best is great but his now serious injury history would seriously didn't his value but we may well get a another 3rd round pick form a team looking for a good small forward (if we believe he isn't in our long term plans)
I'm a huge WHE fan but if we could turn him into a massive 1st round upgrade this season it may be worth considering with the talent available
Giving WHE and our 1st round pick (likley 13/14) we could get ourselves easily into the top 5 or at worst top 10 and a second secound rounder as well.
The remaining players like Blair Oxley Smith Langdon wouldn't bring more than a late 3rd or 4th round picks which would be handy points at best |
I admire your passion QM67, but this is not one of your better posts.  |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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Elliott set to sign a new deal per Jon Ralph tweet today.
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