Luck, superstition, curses and such

[masoncox]

might be worth it to write what my mate Jack Spain thought about us and the GF.


Hi my Magpie friends,

Just wondered how you've been holding up after the GF loss. I was so proud of what the boys and Bucks (yes especially Bucks) did to get there and all but win the thing. It has restored my faith in the club and I am glad to be proven wrong. Still hard to swallow our 27th GF loss though. Emoji

Next year the comp better watch out, because Dayne Beams is going to want to prove a lot to a stack of people. He might just allow us the luxury of sticking Pendles (who was showing all his wear and tear this finals series) into the forward line. Imagine if Pendles added 2-3 goals a game for us sitting in the forward pocket? And Cox can only get better. Great days ahead if we don't get ahead of ourselves.

Nice to see the AFL experiments on the Suns and GWS have come crashing down on them. The Suns are certainties to win zero games next year and the GWS fire sale means they have wasted all those high draft pick concessions the AFL gave them. Both these clubs should be wound up immediately.

Just one dampener during the trade period - well three actually:

1. Hawthorn - how does the AFL allow them to keep adding players to their roster like a salary cap doesn't exist. Actually the answer to that one is obvious. In the past 50 years the Hawks have always got a leg up.

2. North Melbourne - for a poverty stricken club they seem to have no trouble offering huge contracts to other teams' players. Thank God De Goey gave them the middle finger. But geez, the AFL must be bankrolling them for sure.

3. St Blunder - ditto North! Where is the money coming from when they are $20 million in the red and will lose more money from 2018?

Honestly, there are too many teams in Melbourne and we should get back to a 12 team National competition where talent is maximised.

Enjoy the offseason because we could be in for a lot of excitment in 2019. Can't wait!

Cheers, Jack.

[Jezza]

[Jezza]

3QT leads squandered:

1977 = Collingwood (27)**
1984 = Hawthorn (23)
1971 = St Kilda (20)
1970 = Collingwood (17)
1948 = Essendon (13)**
1918 = Collingwood (12)
1947 = Essendon (11)
1981 = Collingwood (9)
2010 = Collingwood [8]**
1899 = South Melbourne (7)
2009 = St Kilda (7)
1943 = Essendon (5)
1969 = Carlton (4)
1921 = Carlton (2)

** = Draw

HT leads squandered:

1970 = Collingwood (44)
1984 = Hawthorn (25)
1998 = North Melbourne (24)
2010 = Collingwood (24)**
1930 = Geelong (21)
1918 = Collingwood (16)
2001 = Essendon (14)
1921 = Carlton (13)
1997 = St Kilda (13)
1992 = Geelong (12)
2018 = Collingwood (12)
1947 = Essendon (11)
1982 = Richmond (11)
1961 = Footscray [8]
2009 = St Kilda (6)
1922 = Collingwood (5)
1937 = Collingwood (5)
1951 = Essendon (4)
1978 = North Melbourne (4)
1946 = Melbourne (3)
2011 = Collingwood (3)
1900 = Fitzroy (2)
1948 = Melbourne (2)**
1964 = Collingwood (2)
1971 = St Kilda (2)
1977 = North Melbourne (2)**
2016 = Sydney (2)
1904 = Carlton (1)
1923 = Fitzroy (1)
1966 = Collingwood (1)
2004 = Brisbane (1)

** = Draw

QT leads squandered

1970 = Collingwood (29)
1984 = Hawthorn (21)
2012 = Hawthorn (19)
1937 = Collingwood (18]
1939 = Collingwood (18]
1996 = Sydney (18]
1958 = Melbourne (17)
1977 = North Melbourne (17)**
1992 = Geelong (17)
2018 = Collingwood (17)
1935 = South Melbourne (15)
1899 = South Melbourne (14)
1959 = Essendon (13)
1948 = Melbourne (12)**
2017 = Adelaide (11)
1961 = Footscray (10)
1979 = Collingwood (10)
1991 = West Coast (9)
1998 = North Melbourne [8]
1946 = Melbourne (7)
1921 = Carlton (6)
1944 = Richmond (6)
2002 = Collingwood (6)
2010 = Collingwood (6)**
1956 = Collingwood (5)
1918 = Collingwood (4)
1927 = Richmond (3)
1963 = Hawthorn (3)
1987 = Hawthorn (3)
1914 = South Melbourne (2)
1981 = Collingwood (2)
2009 = St Kilda (2)
1902 = Essendon (1)
1915 = Collingwood (1)
1923 = Fitzroy (1)
1947 = Essendon (1)
1994 = Geelong (1)
2008 = Geelong (1)

** = Draw

[watt price tully]

^ that�s a lot of effort & work Jezza. Thanks (I think)!

[K]

Great work, Jezza.

[Cam]

Awesome Jezz

[K]

Quoting here, so I can see the full horror on a single page...

Close Collingwood Losing GFs:

1911 6 pts
1918 5 pts (scoring 7.15 to 9.8 )
1922 11 pts
1925 10 pts
1964 4 pts
1966 1 pt
1979 5 pts
2002 9 pts
2018 5 pts

Losses by 1-5 pts: 5
Losses by 6-11 pts: 4


Small GF margins: (margin in points, #GFs for all teams [Coll.])

0 (draw) 3 [2 with Collingwood]
1 4 [1 Collingwood loss]
2 2 [1 Collingwood win]
3 3 [0]
4 4 [1 loss]
5 5 [3 losses]
6 3 [1 loss]
7 1 [0]
8 0 [0]
9 4 [1 loss]
10 3 [2 losses]
11 3 [1 win, 1 loss]
12 3 [2 wins]

[K]

[CarringbushCigar]

Nice work K ^^

Yet the majority of Nicksters deny the possibility of a curse.

These statistics are so one-sided, surely this is no random chance.

Please can we have some suggestions as to what the nature of the curse/s may be ?

For starters maybe changing our song is timely?
"Oh, the premiership's a cakewalk" to
"Oh, the premiership's a __________" ????

[K]

[K]

Finals by decade:

1890-1899: 4P, 1W, 3L, 25% (score percentage 73.30%)

1900-1909: 13P, 4W, 9L, 30.77% (76.78%)

1910-1919: 17P, 9W, 8L, 52.94% (111.27%)

1920-1929: 18P, 9W, 1D, 8L, 52.78% (104.23%)

1930-1939: 21P, 12W, 9L, 57.14% (100.87%)

1940-1949: 8P, 1W, 1D, 6L, 18.75%, (80.66%)

1950-1959: 17P, 7W, 10L, 41.18% (82.18%)

1960-1969: 13P, 4W, 9L, 30.77% (76.29%)

1970-1979: 20P, 6W, 1D, 13L, 32.50% (91.08%)

1980-1989: 14P, 7W, 7L, 50% (88.56%)

1990-1999: 6P, 3W, 1D, 2L, 58.33% (137.65%)

2000-2009: 15P, 8W, 7L, 53.33% (96.49%)

2010-2018: 15P, 8W, 1D, 6L, 56.67% (108.31%)


https://afltables.com/afl/teams/allteams/overall_wl_dec.html



Finals head-to-head:

We have a finals H2H winning record (win percentage over 50%) against only one Victorian club (no, it's not St. Kilda), but a losing record against only one interstate club (no prizes for guessing which one).

We have finals H2H winning records against: Sydney, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney. (We have not played a final against Fremantle or Gold Coast.)

[Albert Parker]

[K]

10+1 Possible Causes of the GF Curse: [version 2]

[1] There is no curse; the history of GF results is just due to random chance.

[2] There is no curse --- except for the years 1970-1981 (perhaps due to 1970's GF).

[3] There is no curse; the club has "played above itself" in preliminary and other finals, leaving itself outmatched in the GF.

[4] There is a curse, and it's due to opposition supporters, whose blind hatred affects the team.

[5] There is a curse, and it's due to opposition supporters (and non-supporters), a) from whose ranks umpires mostly come & b) who form the vast majority of the umpire-influencing GF crowd; critical GF umpiring decisions therefore invariably go against the team.

[6] There is a curse, and it's due to the Magpie Army, whose expectations place too much pressure on the team.

[7] There is a curse, and it's due to the Magpie Army, who make it impossible for the team not to be distracted in GF week.

[8] There is a curse, and it's due to the Magpie Army, who are dangerously sentimental --- sometimes to the point of wearing failure as a badge of honour --- and put players, coaches, and administrators on a pedestal, preventing wise decisions from being made.

[9] There is a curse, and it's due to the AFL conspiring against the club, for example by ensuring biased GF umpiring.

[10] There is a curse, and its cause is supernatural.

[11] There is a curse, whose cause is not covered above.

[Cam]

We are a victim of our own overall success, which whilst not perfect, does annoy a hell of a lot of the population as it happens

[K]

So which of those 10+1 possibilities gets your vote, Cam? CbC has made a clear vote for [10].