The Suns loss: Who'd a thunk it!?

[35forever]

"There can't be any doubt - and I really don't think many here would disagree - that we are more than capable of beating the teams above us and winning all our games from here on in. Our best is the best there is, has been for 4 years.
We could make the 4 even if we drop a game, especially if we get Daisy back and pile on the % over the next two games, because upsets are traditional this time of year.
However, the best guide to near future form is recent form, and on that front we are also capable of losing to the Suns today (not that I think we will)."
-from http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?t=71605&sid=382b683617763b8dd582d5b42ab90b47
"Can we make the top 4" Sat July 20, 6.02 AM


No, I didn't THINK that we would.
But I had a feeling.
And now I have another feeling, one I've had at various times since the early 70s, it's the sickened, angry, depressed, and jealous feeling I get when I know our season is dead, that a year of effort was for nothing. That some other team, probably one I hate intensely, will add a cup to its cabinet, will celebrate and be feted as the best team in the game.

And we, the mighty Magpies, will be one of the many 'also rans'. One of the sides who didn't live up to its potential, our season is a write off before the H&A is over for the first time since 2008, and I'd be getting teased mercilessly at school on Monday (thank god those days are long gone!).
We were pre-season favourites, we were paying about 3 bucks, we were 15 bucks before this game, now we are gonna be paying damn good money, but no one with a brain will touch it, I wouldn't.
I backed us at 4 bucks, I thought we looked great, I was wrong...
Wouldn’t be the first time.

So the inevitable upshot from this absolute debacle will be questions about Buckley and when we should dump him. The answer is simple, we shouldn't. and what's more, we won't. For the record, I am one of those who believe dumping Mick was the stupidest move in the history of Collingwood, Australian Football, and hell, possibly in the history of sport.

But its done. We can't change it, we can't fix it, we can't undo it. If we dumped Bucks who would we get? There's no one much available. Eade?, Roos? What's the point? Roos won't, Eade can't. and if either did we'd be starting over. Rebuilding. Trying to open a window in 2-3 years. No one wants that, not when we already have the people to beat anyone in the game.

So forget dumping Bucks or half the team or even the board which perpetrated the colossal cluster-fu@k in the first place. What's done is done. Bucks isn't the problem, the way we are playing is. We are playing well every second week. We are kicking points while the best sides are kicking goals. Our confidence is shot to hell, we have fifty piddling issues getting into the players heads, from HarryO v Bucks, to mystery injuries, to Trav's kicking, etc, etc.
Buck's isn't the best coach on earth, nor is he the worst, The idea of beloved club champions as coaches is dated and unsuccessful. It worked for Phonse Kyne, but hasn't worked recently. Still, for better or worse, he's OUR coach, and we CAN win with him at he helm because we are good enough. Our window has NOT slammed shut, even though this season is. StKilda, Footscray, West Coast, their windows are closed, and wont reopen for a while, but ours is still open. If we'd had Beamer, Ball & Daisy all season it could've been different. if we'd kicked straighter all year it could've been different. If we had a fair draw it could've been different. If we had've played a couple of better last quarters it could've been different (and I'm talking about games we won more than games we lost, such as Brisbane and Footscray where we could've built a decent percentage).
Next season any of those things could change, and hopefully will (except the draw! Watch us get screwed over yet again next year!). A couple of the kids, like Marly, Ben Kennedy, Seedy, Kyle Martin or Billy Elliot could have stand out seasons, Daisy might stay and have his best year yet, We might pick up Tom Bellchambers, Grundy might become the legend I believe he can be, and the team as a whole might regain the unity, aggression and confidence they had in 2010-11. That last is by FAR the biggest, and is the main difference between the last 2 years and the two before that, when I could watch a Collingwood game knowing without doubt that we would give 100% and still be there at the very end, that even if we were down (think Adelaide 2011, down by 40+ in the 3rd) we would fight our way back. This year there was no way of guessing what we might do on a given day, we could perform like the champions we are, as we did against Geelong, or we could fold like origami as we did yesterday.

This year is gone, as is our proud record of not losing a close game for over two years! The best thing we could do from here on in is lose games, miss the finals, and finish low enough to get a decent draft pick. This would allow us to look at our kids, give us a chance at a slightly better draw, and allow us to operate under the radar a bit. But that's not what will happen. We'll win a few more, maybe pick up one or two unexpected wins, finish about where we are, probably get Freo at home in the first final, and bow out in either the first or second week. That I'd bet money on.

Then, like true Magpie tragics, we'll talk about next year, pray god we don't lose Daisy, and speculate wildly on the draft and whether 2014 will see the resurgence of Collingwood as a force, or see the window finally and forcefully slam in our faces. One of those two will certainly happen, count on it!

But then we could also become the first side to win the flag from 8th!!

Nah, just kiddin!

Your thoughts on the future?

[The_Staunton]

You never know what the future holds

Baby Bombers, Essendon in 2000, our good selves - all projected dynasties, all 1 Premiership wonders

Geelong - rabble in 06, and now the most respected team in the comp. Also don't think anyone wandering out of Etihad the night we kicked 4.1000 against St Kilda would have thought they'd have seen a Premiership side.

I guess my position is clear - I don't think Nathan Buckley is a coach at all, but I also sometimes feel I'm WAY too simplistic in that. We need to look at everyone involved at Collingwood. Assistant coaches, what are they contributing? We used to be a breeding ground for senior coaches, now we have a horrendous group of assistants. We got this years "recycled" players horribly wrong, do we push the boat out for a huge free agent?

Can Derek work his magic in the draft?

All I know is we'll all be back next year to start the slippery dip/roller coaster again, but this year is dead, not sure we'll get anything out of it at all unless it's to put senior footy into Brodie Grundy.

[Piesnchess]

THE cold hard fact is, its damn hard, damn hard to even MAKE a GF, and its motherfucking hard, hard, to actually WIN it, hell, we PIes fans know THAT better than anyone. !! Only ONE team holds up the cup each year, and as Hird once ruefully said, if you finish third, you may as well have finished tenth. ! OUR window is wide open, and will be for some years, we have a terrific crop of young kids, like Elliott, seeds, Williams, grundy, martin, etc, and don't forget, we have been cruelly hit by critical injuries to KEY players for months on end, like ball, daisy, keefe, fas, beams, tooves, now brown and harry and jolly, and on and on it goes.

Bottom line is, IF Cloke had have booted those three soda goals, wed all be going along with dreams of a top four finish. Football can be a cruel game, at times, but just imagine how saints and doggies and dees fans feel, year in, year out, things could be a lot damn worse mate !!

[Harrysz]

I think that Nathan Buckley is a good coach. Not because he's one of the " beloved club champions". That's true but irrelevant.
He's a good coach because he's realistic, understands AFL footy and its nuances and trends , is smart and is a great communicator.
Now, what makes someone a good coach? I for one thought that Reid should've started the game at full forward, and that Witts should've been subbed off rather than Krakoer. Am I smarter than Buckley? I don't think so.

As for the future, well, I wouldn't write this year off yet. And we have an immense well of talent. We will continue to challenge for a long time and we might snag a flag (or 2) while Buckley is coach.

[jack_spain]

Mate we are fated to wait a minimum of 20 years between flags. Those of us old enough had to wait for 32 years before 1990 as well. With the Suns and GWS set to dominate the next decade or more a 20 year wait for our next flag might just be optimistic.

Nobody blows a premiership window like Collingwood in the modern era. Nobody!

[Piesnchess]

[35forever]

I agree totally, Piesnchess, this year coulda gone VERY differently, let me re-paste what I just wrote in another thread (and yes, Jack, I DO remember those dark, painful years of being SOOO close, 70 and 77 in particular!)

"The Malthouse debacle caused the disastrous events of 2012-13, those who still haven't faced that are like the Egyptian Catfish - Living in de Nile! You will see it eventually, I assure you! It doesn't mean you have to admit that Mick was a legend, the biggest problem was changing something that was working incredibly well, fixing something that was far from broken. Do you really think another major change will make us suddenly competitive? I notice none of those suggesting dumping Bucks have a plan for after that. It's mostly micro-managing and advocating getting rid of this or that youngster, like that'll make any difference!!!

We need a better injury run, some kicking lessons, and a return to the mental toughness of 2010-11. Hopefully the coaching staff can engineer that return. We have the players, the staff, and the ability. Psychology is the key, nothing else!

I know it's been a $hit of a year, but the differences between what we saw this season and what we wanted are really not that big. If we had Sydney's Draw and Hawthorn's goalkicking accuracy the result could've been very different. Two or three games coulda been very different, and that's all it would've taken. We were right in the Hawthorn game, a couple of tiny things late in the 2nd and early in the 3rd could've seen us win that one. If that had've happened we woulda been 3-0 and Hawthorn 1-2. We'd be even top after Richmond and going into Anzac Day a much healthier and more confident side against a side we'd had the wood on for years. That confidence could've seen us 12.4 instead of 4.12 at half time. No way we woulda lost from there. 5-zip and 6 zip after St.Kilda with a waaay better percentage.
Could Freo have jumped us like they did under those circumstances? And even if they did would we have kicked 1-5 to 5-2 in the last after our 6 goal to 1 comeback in the 3rd? No, we could definitely have beaten Freo, even the way things stood. We played like Collingwood in round 8 against Geelong, but a confident Collingwood wouldn’t have suffered the 2 goals to 8 turnaround in the 3rd.
So yeah, just a few small differences, mainly shooting for goal and defensive pressure in just a couple of quarters would've seen us undefeated and alone on top after 8 rounds, a totally different proposition to what we saw. From there the Sydney drubbing simply wouldn't have happened, and so on. The bye rounds would've seen us with a zero or a 1 under the 'L'. By this time we would still only have 2 losses at worst, and a certainty for the 4, just about certain for the 2.

All we needed to do in 2013 was kick a lousy hundred points. Each time we did that we won, each time we didn't we lost. If one or two games had been closer, we would've won them, after all, until yesterday we'd only lost a single close game since 2009! (the 1 pt loss to Geel in '11).

So to repeat, yet again, the difference between the debacle we're currently watching, and a better year than 2012 was very, very little. It's just confidence, and the determination and consistency it breeds, nothing more. It doesn’t take an overhaul, big or small, to achieve that, just some tweaking, some kicking practice, and the recognition of the huge importance of the mental side of the game, it's all that separates first and 8th these days, and we have the resources to invest heavily in the psychology of the game. Lead the other sides in that, as we have in so many other areas recently and there is a flag, maybe multiple flags, in our future.
But we need to do it NOW, not in 3 years after a rebuild, during which time Carlton or Essendon could win another."

[Piesnchess]

^ Tooveys run and carry from defence has been sorely missed, and with brown now out, and harry, and we lost keefe for ages, our backs have not had time to settle down, our defence has really been on the rack for some time. It all adds up, in the end.

[Jezza]

[Kingswood]

Brilliant post.

Except I'm a tragic optimist. I think I'll actually enjoy this season more than last year, knowing that its more unpredictable.

Go pies!

[Piesnchess]

[35forever]

Theres no doubt that injuries have caused a great deal of mayhem, and let's remember we had a horrible run last year too. West Coast have been in the same boat as us with two seasons ravaged by injury.
Clearly a side with really good depth can absorb a certain amount of injury, but perhaps two seasons straight of it is just too much? We can't be certain that the problems of 2012-13 aren't simply the result of two years of terrible luck with injuries.
Mick wanted to build a side where just about anyone could slot into one of the predetermined roles, and the side could roll along nicely, but when we add the internal strife of the period since the "succession", perhaps the injuries are just too big an obstacle? Last year we lost all our tall backs, and we leaked goals as a result, this season is turning out similarly.

The problem is not the individual injuries themselves, it’s the disruption they cause with a different group taking the field and training, every week. It's been good that we've been able to blood some youth, but the fact is that no team that introduces a whole raft of new players in a season can win a flag.
I looked through the stats several years ago and found that the premiers each year had one of the lowest number of debutants, generally no more than 3 can be handled. Our guys are playing with different guys each week and that is a nightmare for the modern game where you need to know what your guy will do before he does it. The current side is about as close as we've got to our best 22 this year, and that still lacks Daisy, Tooves, Fas, Keefy, Harry and Browny, all very important players, none more so than Daisy who can turn a game off his own boot.
In fact the only reason we're still in the 8 is the fact that our midfield trio of Swanny, Pendles & Steelo, haven't missed many games, those 3, along with Beamer, Daisy, Harry, Bally and (believe it or not) Maxy, have been the key to the way we've been able to move the ball around the ground so smoothly over the last 5 years. When did all of those guys last play together? When will they next play together?

[Albert Parker]

^ I think that is right.

Injuries and confidence with a lack of cohesion is our major problem. I think our capability on skill is OK, but confidence can sap you of the ability to hit targets or kick goals. Why does Travis kit targets in field kicking but miss easy goals?

Still, i'd like to think that we review our injury list over the past couple of years and review our medical position and our pre-season intensity.

Lynch was a roll of the dice at his age, but his injury history had been good. Clinton Young also has a suspect history with injury and was a risk. Neither has really paid off as we had hoped.

With a bit of luck I really believe that we have the list to challenge.
Thomas, Tooves and Young can provide some leg speed next year with Kennedy to add to it.

Our rucks are perhaps our most obvious deficiency for a tilt at next year's flag, although Hawthorn hasn't been blessed with dominant rucks and our mids are good enough to work to the opposition. Our mids have successfully sharked to NicNat and Cox at their peak in the 2012 etc.

This is not a bad year to have an overseas holiday booked in September as it turns out.

[Breadcrawl]

I refuse to accept that this season is over.

We lost to GC. It isn't the end of the world. They actually aren't that bad. I wholeheartedly concur with Bucks' sentiments that you can't come back far from your best, or you'll lose. A team simply can't play at its best every single week and assuming that we will play poorly in September because we were well below our best one weekend in July is foolish.

In terms of the season, what we lost on the weekend was a slim chance at the top four. In other words, we didn't lose much. We are going to finish 5-8. We get a Richmond or a Port in week 1, then a team on a one-game losing streak in week 2, and anything is possible.

Beams has just returned. Ball hasn't been back long. Sidebottom was very good until he faded completely out of the game when it was up for grabs, but let's not forget how good he is in big games. On its day, our midfield of Swan, Pendles, Ball, Beams, Sidebottom and Blair can dominate any other. We also have every other piece of the puzzle except for a second tall forward. Even so, Bucks is constantly looking for new useful pieces and there is no way we are playing our best possible 22 in matches.

I am not about to back us for the flag, but to those who are throwing in the towel, I say that I am glad you don't play for us because I bet the players haven't ruled a premiership out just yet.

Have a look at the Tigers supporters. They are cock-a-hoop, and we are are probably on our way to the same elimination final.

[Albert Parker]

True Breadcrawl but

- a lot has to go right in a year to win a premiership. Constant turnover in personnel due to injury is not a factor for success. Look at how many players we have exposed to senior football this year. 2nd to GWS

- teams in premiership contention actually still win more games than they lose when they are well off the boil. Like Hawthorn has done consistently with flat patches in form in conjunction with injuries (Franklin, Rioli, Birchall, Suckling etc)

We're not there this year but I wouldn't join the ranks of those advocating tanking for draft picks. Still keep putting our best foot forward but it isn't going to be our year this year I'll concede already.