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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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Post subject: Queensland state election | |
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This one’s pretty intriguing. Labor currently ahead of the LNP at the halfway mark of the count, but they may be forced into minority government again with the Katter Party or Greens. One Nation is yet to pick up a single seat. _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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According to the ABC, these are the results so far after 67% of the count:
Labor 41 (35.4%) = -2% Swing
LNP 37 (33.4%) = -7.95% Swing
Katter 2 (2.2%) = +0.3% Swing
One Nation 0 (13.5%) = +12.5% Swing
Greens 0 (10.0%) = +1.6% Swing
Other 0 (5.5%) = -4.4% Swing
One Nation a chance to win the seat of Mirani.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/results/
Current ABC projections are:
Labor = 48
LNP = 38
Katter = 3
One Nation = 2
Independent = 2
Need 47 to form government. _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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I figure Labor need 46 to be comfortable, as Margaret Strelow in Rockhampton is a former Labor MP and likely to back them (I don’t know much about the political leanings of the other independent, Sandy Bolton, who’s a former mayor). If Labor only get 44 or 45, though, the chances of an unlikely LNP/Katter/One Nation coalition become more possible. There’s little way of knowing who the Katters will back this time around – it was the ALP last time, but that was mostly due to their experience under the Newman government, which is now a distant memory.
Some electorates to keep an eye on:
Maiwar: Labor are leading the LNP comfortably on two-party preferred, but the high Greens vote means they could potentially leapfrog the ALP from third place and win the seat. This is probably their only prospect of a seat at this stage.
Macalister: This is still listed as a seat in doubt despite Labor killing the LNP in 2PP. I’m guessing that’s because anti-child abuse campaigner Hetty Johnston is running as an independent and has received an extraordinarily high first preference vote. If she pulls off a miracle and wins, I suspect she’d be more likely to back Labor in a hung parliament.
Thuringowa: Some people seem to think this could go One Nation’s way, but I’m not sure how that could be possible given Labor’s significant 2PP lead over them. Perhaps the LNP are still a chance to sneak a win here if One Nation fall to third – if so, it’s one of the few seats in doubt where they seem to have a chance. _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace
Last edited by David on Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:02 am; edited 1 time in total |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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That is a hypothetical question. |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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Latest ABC projections:
Labor = 49
LNP = 38
Katter = 3
One Nation = 1
Independent = 2 _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003 Location: Port Melbourne
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The most wonderful result was Malcolm Roberts getting a clear message to piss off. "Mr denial" continues to deny everything and even denied he lost. I laughed when he started to rant on. Even the One Nation Boss (Ashby) was clearly embarrassed.
Malcolm Turnbull and the LNP are going to have to squash Pauline Hanson again if they want a chance of winning the next Federal Election. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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I have to say, after all the talk of this being 1998 all over again – when One Nation famously got 25% of the vote and won 11 seats – the fact that they’re looking at a maximum of one seat and might not even get that is a pretty woeful result. One can look at the fact that 13% voted for them and blame a conspiracy of major parties for freezing them out, but I don’t know how that works this time around given that the LNP actually directed preferences to them. _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Well, looking at the quality of their candidates, perhaps they’re tanking for draft picks? Maybe in the future, they’ll field a few Australians as candidates - that might make a difference, I suppose. |
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swoop42
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008 Location: The 18
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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One Nation are a joke of a party. Despite an obvious market for a Right Wing party they're bumbling idiots. Preferencing Labor in some seats etc. Idiocy. Bernardi is going to take all their votes that don't go back to the LNP. |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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One what? |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003 Location: Andromeda
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Wokko wrote: | One Nation are a joke of a party. Despite an obvious market for a Right Wing party they're bumbling idiots. Preferencing Labor in some seats etc. Idiocy. Bernardi is going to take all their votes that don't go back to the LNP. |
Bernardi’s certainly a smarter operator, but I think the thing he fails to understand is that, despite appearances to the contrary in the tabloids and talkback radio, there aren’t all that many right-wing ideologue voters out there. What One Nation do is tap into vague, sometimes contradictory ideas that ‘non-political’ people might well hold about patriotism, Christian values, protectionism and fear of outsiders; Bernardi, on the other hand, preaches a very specific message to the converted. I’m yet to be convinced that his party will go anywhere, short of a major Liberal Party schism. _________________ All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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Wokko
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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Still hoping for the shitshow of Abbott joining the Conservatives |
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003 Location: Port Melbourne
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Wokko wrote: | Still hoping for the shitshow of Abbott joining the Conservatives | I reckon his plan A will be to challenge Turnbull in one last ditch effort to become PM again. Plan B to shift. |
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