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Top 50 players 2017

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:38 pm
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The aim is pretty simple. The execution is somewhat more difficult.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyball

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/blues-set-to-have-new-database-ready-for-national-draft-20150627-ghz84b.html

https://madnessofsport.wordpress.com/2015/06/28/the-problems-with-carltons-approach-to-analytics-and-list-management/

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:51 pm
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^^^
FWIW (probably not much because there are way too many unknowns! --- what exactly are they supposedly using & to what extent?), Carlton's draft choices in recent years...

2015: 1: Jacob Weitering; 10: Harry McKay; 12: Charlie Curnow; 23: David Cuningham; 53: Jack Silvagni
2016: 6: Sam Petrevski-Seton; 27: Zac Fisher; 47: Harrison Macreadie; 59: Cameron Polson; 61: Tom Williamson; 65: Patrick Kerr*
2017: 3:* Paddy Dow; 10:* Lochie O'Brien; 30:* Tom De Koning; 70:* Angus Schumacher; 78:* Jarrod Garlett; 79 Pass

Maybe their trades tell us more:

2015 Tom Bell, Lachie Henderson, Troy Menzel, Chris Yarran and picks 20, 21, 28, 41, 77, 95, Geelong’s 2016 1st-round pick and 2016 4th-round pick out;
Sam Kerridge, Lachie Plowman, Jed Lamb, Andrew Phillips, Liam Sumner and picks 8, 11, 19, 60 and Bulldogs’ 2016 third-round pick in.

2016 Zach Tuohy and picks 45 & 58 and 2017 2nd-round pick out;
Billie Smedts, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett, Rhys Palmer and picks 48, 63, 66, 70 in.

2017 Matthew Kennedy, Darcy Lang, Matthew Lobbe, picks 10, 30, 73 + 2018 picks [2nd- (Adelaide), 2nd- (Bulldogs), 4th-round (Geelong) picks] in;
Bryce Gibbs, picks 40, 58, 77, 95, 2018 2nd-, 3rd- & 4th-round picks out.


Last edited by K on Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:52 pm
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Pretty soon.
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:43 pm
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Mark Robinson’s top 50 was in the Herald-Sun today. Sidebottom is the only Collingwood player he selected. No Pendlebury, no Treloar, no Langdon.
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Albert Parker 



Joined: 13 Dec 2012


PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:45 pm
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^Pendlebury is at 14 on the list
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3rd degree Aries



Joined: 22 Jun 2004
Location: John Wren's tote

PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:33 pm
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Is it really surprising from that piece of old bum fluff? Give me a top 50 from Leigh Matthews that would have some credibility.
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qldmagpie67 



Joined: 18 Dec 2008


PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:55 pm
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Here's Robbo's top 50 for what it's worth
Pendles is at 16 and Sidey at 44
Former Collingwood player Dayne Beams came in at 31
Would have thought Grundy and Treloar would have been there or thereabouts
I think he has gone to the Brownlow votes, and champion data rankings sprinkled a few of his favourite Essendon players in it then juggled a few names around to get a debate going and called it a top 50

If Daniher can make it at 8 then Grundy should have surely been in
Also Gawn who missed a fair slice of 2017 was the highest ranked ruck again if he was working off 2017 then it's a myth or maybe he just likes Gawn and not Grundy

1 Patrick Dangerfield – Geelong
2 Dustin Martin – Richmond
3 Nathan Fyfe – Fremantle
4 Alex Rance – Richmond
5 Lance Franklin – Sydney
6 Gary Ablett – Geelong
7 Josh Kelly – GWS
8 Joe Daniher – Essendon
9 Joel Selwood – Geelong
10 Josh Kennedy – West Coast
11 Rory Sloane – Adelaide
12 Marcus Bontempelli – Western Bulldogs
13 Josh Kennedy – Sydney
14 Tom Mitchell – Hawthorn
15 Patrick Cripps – Carlton
16 Scott Pendlebury – Collingwood
17 Trent Cotchin – Richmond
18 Eddie Betts – Adelaide
19 Paddy Ryder – Port Adelaide
20 Dayne Zorko – Brisbane
21 Michael Hurley – Essendon
22 Robbie Gray – Port Adelaide
23 Jeremy McGovern – West Coast
24 Toby Greene – GWS
25 Ben Brown – North Melbourne
26 Luke Parker – Sydney
27 Luke Shuey – West Coast
28 Zach Merrett – Essendon
29 Rory Laird – Adelaide
30 Max Gawn – Melbourne
31 Dayne Beams – Brisbane
32 Dylan Shiel – GWS
33 Tom Lynch – Gold Coast
34 Michael Hibberd – Melbourne
35 Matt Crouch – Adelaide
36 Lachie Neale – Fremantle
37 Sam Jacobs – Adelaide
38 Isaac Heeney – Sydney
39 Charlie Dixon – Port Adelaide
40 Chad Wingard – Port Adelaide
41 Steven May – Gold Coast
42 Callan Ward – GWS
43 Ollie Wines – Port Adelaide
44 Steele Sidebottom – Collingwood
45 Elliot Yeo – West Coast
46 Clayton Oliver – Melbourne
47 Bryce Gibbs – Adelaide
48 Jack Riewoldt – Richmond
49 Mitch Duncan – Geelong
50 Taylor Walker – Adelaide
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qldmagpie67 



Joined: 18 Dec 2008


PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:59 pm
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Pies4shaw wrote:
Mark Robinson’s top 50 was in the Herald-Sun today. Sidebottom is the only Collingwood player he selected. No Pendlebury, no Treloar, no Langdon.


Look a little closer to the top mate to find Pendles name (it's at 16)
In case your wondering your other favourite Dayne Beams came in at 31 13 spots ahead of your next favourite player 😉😉
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:59 pm
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Albert Parker wrote:
^Pendlebury is at 14 on the list

Thanks for the correction. I looked for Collingwood jumpers twice in the photos and couldn't see him.
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Dave The Man Scorpio



Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:03 pm
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RudeBoy wrote:
So we have got 2 of the top 10 players (ie 20%) and 5 of the top 50 (ie 10%). That seems pretty damn good to me.


But Guess we have no much Behind Them then

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 7:33 pm
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With 18 teams you’d expect 3 ca players for each team assuming random distribution of top players. Given we finished 12th, 2 players is probably about right. Treloar and Howe were probably not too far out of the 50.

Port Adelaide are big underprformers with a tenth of the top 50 Confused

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ronrat 



Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: Thailand

PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:23 pm
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Slobbo would have more credibility if he just did the top 50 Pot and Parma pubs of any given city.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:15 pm
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Chris Judd wrote:
...
Cohesion is the length of time players have worked together, building an understanding of the way each other play. It is vital in a sphere in which everything plays out in milliseconds and in the sub-conscious. That is the time-frame given to execute a skill or structure and to engage the part of the brain that is needed to execute it.

It’s become such an important gauge of performance entire businesses are popping up, such as ex-Wallaby Ben Darwin’s Gain Line Analytics, that measure the cohesion index of sporting teams around the world.

Some of the things Gain Line measure are: list turnover, in-season cohesion affected by injury and selection, and the long-term vision of the board. Carlton doesn’t use the Gain Line analytics service
, but the club understands the link between successful teams and their ability to maintain a stable list, allowing players to grow together, compounding their individual improvements with greater team gains as understanding of each other improves.
...

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/together-is-the-only-way-forward-for-the-blues-20180416-p4z9xx.html
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:17 pm
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Carlton needs to stop sweating over this stuff. I’ve run my ruler over their metrics and I think they’re travelling nicely.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:25 pm
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http://www.afr.com/business/sport/darwins-theory-of-sporting-evolution-20170323-gv4yuj [24.3.17]

Quote:
...
... Darwin has spent three years building Gain Line Analytics, a sports analytics firm.

It has got many calls right – foretelling barnstorming rise of the Western Bulldogs, 500-1 outsiders at the start of the 2015 AFL season, and picking the Super Rugby finalists – the Lions and the Hurricanes.

The predictions are derived from their "teamwork index", or TWI, a measure which reflects and weights the "cohesion" of a set of players based on their shared experiences over various time periods.

It's based on three measures – long-term cohesion, which is the time team members have spent playing together more than two years ago; medium-term cohesion – which is the time spent within two years and finally the in-season cohesion, which has the highest weighting.

"We are measuring the understanding between people – and the inputs to that understanding," he says.

Gain Line has taken Darwin and TWI co-founder Simon Strachan around the world to meet and consult with some of the biggest names in sport.

It's led them to the conclusion that money buys skill, but not success, that talent flourishes best in familiar environments and that greatness is built carefully and methodically.

"Governance is the greatest driver of success, but boards get seduced by skill and what they see in other clubs," he says.
...


"Commercial decisions have hurt the Wallabies," he says, pointing to the addition of more franchises to the Super Rugby competition.

As each expansion team was added, the Wallabies suffered as cohesion between players (the underlying idea of the Team Work Index) weakened. It was the code that suffered.
...

The resurgence of Welsh rugby coincided with coach Graham Henry's push to reduce their domestic league to five teams.

"One of them went broke so it went to four, and then 'whack' – they won the Six Nations with the best defence in the last 10 years – picked virtually entirely out of the Ospreys team."
...


He got in contact with ... Pat Fergusson – who told him about a book called Chasing Stars. It studied the performance of Wall Street's star analysts as they made big-money moves between the banks.

Author Boris Groysberg's striking conclusion: "Star analysts who change firms suffer an immediate and lasting decline in performance."

At that point Darwin admits his obsessive personality took control, and the data skills he learnt as a coach led him to build a series formulas.

The non-sport underpinnings of his analysis convinced him the insights could apply beyond sport and he began looking at companies and boards of listed companies.
...

There are two particular examples that Darwin cites as irrefutable proof of his theory of cohesion.

One is Manchester United's famous Class of 92 – a group of unremarkable pimply teenagers that included David Beckham. As kids they got thumped by Leeds United in the FA Youth Cup.

"They were just a normal bunch of kids with great attitudes –that became was the most dominant side in the history of the English Premier League"

And Celtic's Lions of Lisbon – a team in which 14 out of the team of 15 were born within 10 miles of its home ground in Glasgow but became European football champions in 1967.

Darwin challenges anyone in the field of sports data to explain how a band of locals could beat a continent.
...

"Was there are some form of amazing footballer going around Glasgow rooting women in the 1940s?"
...


"I don't want this to be an story about Moneyball being wrong. It was right for its time and its environment – baseball."

The Team Work Index is different, he argues: "If analytics, and GPS tracking and all that [deliver] a 1 per cent differential, we are saying 'cohesion' is 40 per cent."

Darwin refers to teams that have tried and failed to use the Moneyball approach – including a top-flight English football side.

"They almost went down to the third Division because their churn was enormous. That's the English Premier League at the moment – Churn!"
...


"You can't duplicate cohesion – it takes too long – it can only go up 5 per cent a year."

... The high-cohesion clubs are "those that people love with a passion".

"Brand engagement is really about peoples relationship with the players and the managers and the longer they are there the more you have those relationships.

"That is why the cohesive clubs are profitable, sustainable. The short term thinking clubs are unprofitable, unsustainable and unsuccessful."

...
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