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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| Mugwump wrote: | | dalyc wrote: | | E wrote: | | eddiesmith wrote: | | Never understand this notion that % doesn't matter, yeah, much better to finish 8th and head interstate than finish 5th and play a home final... |
if you are good enough, then you'll win both of those games.
the fact is that if you cant beat the 5th placed team in their home field, you are likely not good enough to go interstate the next week and beat the 4th placed team and even less likely to beat the second placed team.
on the other hand, if you are good enough to win the flag, you will be able to bet 5th placed or the 8th placed team no matter where you play them.
Since winning the flag is all that matters, then by definition percentage doesn't matter. |
Quite right unless you miss the 8 on % |
.....Or the top four and the double chance. Even great sides can have an off day (see GF1, 2010). |
If you are relying on percentage to make the top 4, you are either not good enough (in which case, finishing fourth wont help you - see most shit 4th placed teams many of whom go out in straight sets) or you are good enough (which means that finishing 5th wont hurt you - see Western bulldogs!).
This is still further proof that under the current final 8 system (with the bye in the week leading up to the finals), percentage doesn't matter.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| melliot wrote: | 1. % is a good indicator of how you are playing. Good % means you are an efficenct team and have the balance of attack and defence right.
2. If % is the difference between a home final or not, it matters a bloody lot. However winning more games is first priority...... of course. |
If you are the best team in the finals, playing an away final will not hurt you and therefore percentage doesn't matter. Has anyone ever lost the first final they played (interstate) and come back and won the flag? The finals as constructed means the difference between what you might get
And percentage only shows whether or not you are a high scoring downhill skiing team. Some teams get in front and play defensively to shut the game down (especially teams that rely on hard running - oh like Collingwood), others like to pile it on and can do that easily once a side is beaten (like the Eagles and the demons). It seriously doesn't prove anything and doesn't matter. The best evidence that the Eagles and the demons are good are their win/loss record. Percentage is completely irrelevant.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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npalm
Joined: 01 May 2005
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^^^^^ Hey E, you're like a dog with a bone when it comes to percentage. I reckon you should change your handle to Tenacious E. 
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Side by side. |
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dalyc 
Joined: 02 Mar 2005
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| E wrote: | | Mugwump wrote: | | dalyc wrote: | | E wrote: | | eddiesmith wrote: | | Never understand this notion that % doesn't matter, yeah, much better to finish 8th and head interstate than finish 5th and play a home final... |
if you are good enough, then you'll win both of those games.
the fact is that if you cant beat the 5th placed team in their home field, you are likely not good enough to go interstate the next week and beat the 4th placed team and even less likely to beat the second placed team.
on the other hand, if you are good enough to win the flag, you will be able to bet 5th placed or the 8th placed team no matter where you play them.
Since winning the flag is all that matters, then by definition percentage doesn't matter. |
Quite right unless you miss the 8 on % |
.....Or the top four and the double chance. Even great sides can have an off day (see GF1, 2010). |
If you are relying on percentage to make the top 4, you are either not good enough (in which case, finishing fourth wont help you - see most shit 4th placed teams many of whom go out in straight sets) or you are good enough (which means that finishing 5th wont hurt you - see Western bulldogs!).
This is still further proof that under the current final 8 system (with the bye in the week leading up to the finals), percentage doesn't matter. |
“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.”
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Four legged animals good, two legged animals better |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| dalyc wrote: | | E wrote: | | Mugwump wrote: | | dalyc wrote: | | E wrote: | | eddiesmith wrote: | | Never understand this notion that % doesn't matter, yeah, much better to finish 8th and head interstate than finish 5th and play a home final... |
if you are good enough, then you'll win both of those games.
the fact is that if you cant beat the 5th placed team in their home field, you are likely not good enough to go interstate the next week and beat the 4th placed team and even less likely to beat the second placed team.
on the other hand, if you are good enough to win the flag, you will be able to bet 5th placed or the 8th placed team no matter where you play them.
Since winning the flag is all that matters, then by definition percentage doesn't matter. |
Quite right unless you miss the 8 on % |
.....Or the top four and the double chance. Even great sides can have an off day (see GF1, 2010). |
If you are relying on percentage to make the top 4, you are either not good enough (in which case, finishing fourth wont help you - see most shit 4th placed teams many of whom go out in straight sets) or you are good enough (which means that finishing 5th wont hurt you - see Western bulldogs!).
This is still further proof that under the current final 8 system (with the bye in the week leading up to the finals), percentage doesn't matter. |
“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.” |
Interestingly, your cliche would also be true if you replaced "stupid people" with the words "smart people who have the benefit of knowledge and experience".....
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| E wrote: | | RudeBoy wrote: | | We need a percentage booster. Do it Pies! |
Rudey, we should just worry about winning the four points. We all know that percentage doesn't matter.
Would you rather we press really hard for 4 quarters and win by 60-80 points at the expense of possible fatigue injuries (to Ben Reid or Daniel Wells, for example - we already lost Varcoe and Reid previously to fatigue injuries) and weariness as the season wears on (especially to young blokes like Stephenson and young in games experience like Scharenberg - Murray and Brown already ran out of steam).
Or would you rather win by 30, run out the clock in the last quarter and be in tip top shape for our clash against the dees.
An interesting fact. Marathons take several weeks to recover from, but the truth is that if you stopped running at mile 22, you would recover relatively quickly. It's the last 10-20% of effort that seems to exponentially add to recovery time. i cant believe this isn't also true of AFL football (especially now that it has evolved into an endurance sport).
Player management is sooooo much more important than percentage (especially since percentage doesn't matter). |
% will decide who finishes top 4 and who finishes in 5th - 8th this year.
% DOES matter, mark it down and check in August. 
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| Skids wrote: | | E wrote: | | RudeBoy wrote: | | We need a percentage booster. Do it Pies! |
Rudey, we should just worry about winning the four points. We all know that percentage doesn't matter.
Would you rather we press really hard for 4 quarters and win by 60-80 points at the expense of possible fatigue injuries (to Ben Reid or Daniel Wells, for example - we already lost Varcoe and Reid previously to fatigue injuries) and weariness as the season wears on (especially to young blokes like Stephenson and young in games experience like Scharenberg - Murray and Brown already ran out of steam).
Or would you rather win by 30, run out the clock in the last quarter and be in tip top shape for our clash against the dees.
An interesting fact. Marathons take several weeks to recover from, but the truth is that if you stopped running at mile 22, you would recover relatively quickly. It's the last 10-20% of effort that seems to exponentially add to recovery time. i cant believe this isn't also true of AFL football (especially now that it has evolved into an endurance sport).
Player management is sooooo much more important than percentage (especially since percentage doesn't matter). |
% will decide who finishes top 4 and who finishes in 5th - 8th this year.
% DOES matter, mark it down and check in August. |
Percentage will likely determine where certain teams end up being ranked on the ladder Skids. This is true. However, it isn't important to the question of who wins the flag (therefore it doesn't matter) and i don't think a team should waste one second chasing percentage. Based on the way Collingwood played the last quarter against Footscray, i'm pretty sure Nathan Buckley agrees with me.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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WhyPhilWhy?
WhyPhilWhy?
Joined: 09 Oct 2001
Location: Location: Location:
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| Melbourne 2017 say hi. |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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For the record, this is not my hobby horse. i just respond to others who crap on (erroneously) about why they think percentage matters. Look at the latest post from WhyPhilWhy. He seems to be suggesting that if Melbourne's percentage was better last year they would have won the flag (notwithstanding the fact that they couldn't beat us in the last week of the season when most of our best side were on the sidelines)..... nonsense.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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You never know, though, right? We barely squeaked into the eight in 2007, yet came within a goal of winning the preliminary final and, given Port's performance the week after, might have snagged a premiership. The Bulldogs went further and actually did win it from 7th. Team form can fluctuate, and some teams rise to the occasion when they reach the finals – anyway, you have to be in it to win it. If percentage can be the difference between making the finals or not, or getting a home final or not, or getting a double chance or not, then of course it matters, because each of those things put a team in a better chance to win a flag.
Your argument on this just seems like some kind of 'no true scotsman' routine.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| David wrote: | You never know, though, right? We barely squeaked into the eight in 2007, yet came within a goal of winning the preliminary final and, given Port's performance the week after, might have snagged a premiership. The Bulldogs went further and actually did win it from 7th. Team form can fluctuate, and some teams rise to the occasion when they reach the finals – anyway, you have to be in it to win it. If percentage can be the difference between making the finals or not, or getting a home final or not, or getting a double chance or not, then of course it matters, because each of those things put a team in a better chance to win a flag.
Your argument on this just seems like some kind of 'no true scotsman' routine. |
David, you will notice that the dogs actually made the 8 by 3 games the year they won the flag. In that case, they might have had the worst percentage of all the teams on the same number of wins (meaning that percentage certainly didn't hurt them in any way).
I don't remember our situation in 2007, but i don't remember us having a very good percentage either. I wonder if percentage helped us at all that year? In fact its likely that a bad percentage didnt hurt us at all!
All this supports my view that percentage doesn't matter under the current system. that may not have been true under the final 5 or 6, where it was possible for percentage to make a big difference.
I randomly looked at another year to see whether percentage mattered. In 2015, there was only one team who finished lower than they could have based on percentage. Guess who it was? Hawthorn (AKA the PREMIERS!!!!!)
In 2012, Collingwood and Sydney finished third and fourth separated by percentage. Guess who got rewarded with an interstate final. Sydney. Even thought they had the better percentage, we got a home final and they got an away final in Adelaide. Didn't matter. They were good enough to win the flag after winning away from home. We were not good enough and lost in the prelim, to Sydney! Now the outcome might have been different if our percentage was better than Sydney's (certainly there would have been different games played in the finals series), but there is no way you could say in that situation that it was better to have the higher percentage (or that if we had a higher percentage and finished third that our chances of winning the flag would have been better).
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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5 from the wing on debut
Joined: 27 May 2016
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| E wrote: | | dalyc wrote: | | E wrote: | | eddiesmith wrote: | | Never understand this notion that % doesn't matter, yeah, much better to finish 8th and head interstate than finish 5th and play a home final... |
if you are good enough, then you'll win both of those games.
the fact is that if you cant beat the 5th placed team in their home field, you are likely not good enough to go interstate the next week and beat the 4th placed team and even less likely to beat the second placed team.
on the other hand, if you are good enough to win the flag, you will be able to bet 5th placed or the 8th placed team no matter where you play them.
Since winning the flag is all that matters, then by definition percentage doesn't matter. |
Quite right unless you miss the 8 on % |
If you are relying on percentage to qualify as the 8th best team in the AFL, then you have absolutely zero chance of winning the flag (whether you finish 8th or 9th). Since winning flags is all that matters, this is further proof that percentage doesn't matter. |
I notice that you didn't respond to Ronrat's comment about the finals in 1992. Probably because he is correct and there is nothing that you can say. A double chance means a lot.
If winning flags is all that matters you are incorrect as percentage is all that matters. Isn't it the team with better than 100% on GF day that wins? |
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BazBoy
Joined: 11 Sep 2014
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Percentage did not do Melbourne any favours and end of 2017
They finished on 12 wins (because we fixed them up last game) with a percentage of 105.5
WCE finished on same wins -12 but with a percentage of 105.7
A mere. .02 %
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I'm not arguing--just explaining why i am right |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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An observation. Having a high percentage doesn't necessarily mean you are a high scoring team of front runners. An ultra defensive team that only allows it's opposition to score 4 goals per game, but then only scores 8 themselves would have a % of 200%.
I think % can be critical in making the 8 and which spot you get. I don't buy the argument that if you have to rely on % to make the finals you have no chance, the premiership is won by the team who plays best in the finals. If you aren't there, then you have no chance.
As a side note, I heard an interesting suggestion recently to do away with % and instead use only the points for. The suggestion was that this would in some part change the mindset to more attack and less defence, encouraging higher scoring shootouts and more attractive free flowing football.
Thoughts?
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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BazBoy
Joined: 11 Sep 2014
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As Dee,s walked off the G after last game they would been dirty to let a win go wanting of course
But this purely speculative had they had a bigger win in another game whilst WCE had a tight win it would be West Coast having early holidays
Yep I know it’s real speculation but it could have happened
I can imagine if it was Pies in same boat missing by .02
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I'm not arguing--just explaining why i am right |
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