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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| 5 from the wing on debut wrote: | | E wrote: | | dalyc wrote: | | E wrote: | | eddiesmith wrote: | | Never understand this notion that % doesn't matter, yeah, much better to finish 8th and head interstate than finish 5th and play a home final... |
if you are good enough, then you'll win both of those games.
the fact is that if you cant beat the 5th placed team in their home field, you are likely not good enough to go interstate the next week and beat the 4th placed team and even less likely to beat the second placed team.
on the other hand, if you are good enough to win the flag, you will be able to bet 5th placed or the 8th placed team no matter where you play them.
Since winning the flag is all that matters, then by definition percentage doesn't matter. |
Quite right unless you miss the 8 on % |
If you are relying on percentage to qualify as the 8th best team in the AFL, then you have absolutely zero chance of winning the flag (whether you finish 8th or 9th). Since winning flags is all that matters, this is further proof that percentage doesn't matter. |
I notice that you didn't respond to Ronrat's comment about the finals in 1992. Probably because he is correct and there is nothing that you can say. A double chance means a lot.
If winning flags is all that matters you are incorrect as percentage is all that matters. Isn't it the team with better than 100% on GF day that wins? |
I've responded to that a lot of times. My comment that percentage doesn't matter relates to the current final 8. If you read all of my posts I try to make that clear.
In the final 5, there was a MASSIVE difference between first and second so percentage was super important. the second placed team who wins as many games as the first placed team had legitimate claims to being a premiership contender and the massive advantage for finishing first made percentage critically important.
In the version of the final 6 that existed in 1992, third place could go out in week 1 and second place had a bona fide double chance. Percentage really mattered under that system too (as a third placed team that won as many games as first and second must be considered a legitimate flag chance and there is a massive advantage for finishing top 2).
Nowadays, the four best teams basically have the same chance of winning (I hear some yelping about home final vs road final, but if you are good enough you win anywhere - many examples of this). if you aren't good enough to make the final 4 on wins alone then you probably aren't strong enough a team to warrant a double chance (its unlikely that fifth will win as many games as first, second or third for example) and whether you get the double chance or not, you are highly unlikely to win. If you happen to be that late surging team that can win it all, whether you finish fourth or 5th is unlikely change the outcome for that team (look at Footscray). This is even more the case now that we have a bye before the finals.
In a similar vein, if you aren't good enough to make the 8th on the strength of wins, then its highly, highly unlikely that you will do anything in the finals. I think history so far has proven that categorically.
So I'm sorry if there was a Ronrat post that I missed, but I have answered his question numerous times for others (and as I said before, I am only saying percentage doesn't matter in the final 8 system that we have in place now).
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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5 from the wing on debut
Joined: 27 May 2016
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| E wrote: | | 5 from the wing on debut wrote: | | E wrote: | | dalyc wrote: | | E wrote: | | eddiesmith wrote: | | Never understand this notion that % doesn't matter, yeah, much better to finish 8th and head interstate than finish 5th and play a home final... |
if you are good enough, then you'll win both of those games.
the fact is that if you cant beat the 5th placed team in their home field, you are likely not good enough to go interstate the next week and beat the 4th placed team and even less likely to beat the second placed team.
on the other hand, if you are good enough to win the flag, you will be able to bet 5th placed or the 8th placed team no matter where you play them.
Since winning the flag is all that matters, then by definition percentage doesn't matter. |
Quite right unless you miss the 8 on % |
If you are relying on percentage to qualify as the 8th best team in the AFL, then you have absolutely zero chance of winning the flag (whether you finish 8th or 9th). Since winning flags is all that matters, this is further proof that percentage doesn't matter. |
I notice that you didn't respond to Ronrat's comment about the finals in 1992. Probably because he is correct and there is nothing that you can say. A double chance means a lot.
If winning flags is all that matters you are incorrect as percentage is all that matters. Isn't it the team with better than 100% on GF day that wins? |
I've responded to that a lot of times. My comment that percentage doesn't matter relates to the current final 8. If you read all of my posts I try to make that clear.
In the final 5, there was a MASSIVE difference between first and second so percentage was super important. the second placed team who wins as many games as the first placed team had legitimate claims to being a premiership contender and the massive advantage for finishing first made percentage critically important.
In the version of the final 6 that existed in 1992, third place could go out in week 1 and second place had a bona fide double chance. Percentage really mattered under that system too (as a third placed team that won as many games as first and second must be considered a legitimate flag chance and there is a massive advantage for finishing top 2).
Nowadays, the four best teams basically have the same chance of winning (I hear some yelping about home final vs road final, but if you are good enough you win anywhere - many examples of this). if you aren't good enough to make the final 4 on wins alone then you probably aren't strong enough a team to warrant a double chance (its unlikely that fifth will win as many games as first, second or third for example) and whether you get the double chance or not, you are highly unlikely to win. If you happen to be that late surging team that can win it all, whether you finish fourth or 5th is unlikely change the outcome for that team (look at Footscray). This is even more the case now that we have a bye before the finals.
In a similar vein, if you aren't good enough to make the 8th on the strength of wins, then its highly, highly unlikely that you will do anything in the finals. I think history so far has proven that categorically.
So I'm sorry if there was a Ronrat post that I missed, but I have answered his question numerous times for others (and as I said before, I am only saying percentage doesn't matter in the final 8 system that we have in place now). |
If we ever finished top four I would much prefer a home final at the G because of a higher percentage rather than an away final in Perth because of a lower percentage. I just conducted a quick poll on that and 99% of people agree with me. |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| stui magpie wrote: | | I think % can be critical in making the 8 and which spot you get. I don't buy the argument that if you have to rely on % to make the finals you have no chance, the premiership is won by the team who plays best in the finals. If you aren't there, then you have no chance. |
Precisely this! West Coast may not have won the flag last year, but they clearly had >0 chance of winning the flag once they were in the finals. E, you would not have staked your life savings on them losing the elimination final, or the semi-final if they had won that, or the prelim, and so on, would you? QED. Percentage matters. Please just accept this and have mercy on us all. 
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| David wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | | I think % can be critical in making the 8 and which spot you get. I don't buy the argument that if you have to rely on % to make the finals you have no chance, the premiership is won by the team who plays best in the finals. If you aren't there, then you have no chance. |
Precisely this! West Coast may not have won the flag last year, but they clearly had >0 chance of winning the flag once they were in the finals. E, you would not have staked your life savings on them losing the elimination final, or the semi-final if they had won that, or the prelim, and so on, would you? QED. Percentage matters. Please just accept this and have mercy on us all. |
Exactly. I'd also add that percentage might be the difference between finishing 4th or 5th. |
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Bucks5 
Nicky D - Parting the red sea
Joined: 23 Mar 2002
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Percentage can make the difference between making or missing out on the final 8, determining whether you get a home or away final or whether you secure a double chance or not. Percentage matters.
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How would Siri know when to answer "Hey Siri" unless it is listening in to everything you say? |
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thebaldfacts
Joined: 02 Aug 2007
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | Along with 1964, 1966, 1977, 1979, 1981, 2002 and 2011? |
You forgot 1970 in that list - unless you sensibly have expunged it from your memory  |
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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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Bump  |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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It's going to shape the top 8.. it certainly does matter!
If it didn't, why would it be included? If brisbane beat richmond, the wiggles will be top 4... by % (And I Still win a shit load!)
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| Bucks5 wrote: | | Percentage can make the difference between making or missing out on the final 8, determining whether you get a home or away final or whether you secure a double chance or not. Percentage matters. |
But none that f those things matter. All that matters is winning the flag. And percentage doesn’t determine the premier. Who knows whether 3rd,4th or 5th is the best spot to be in order to win the flag. I think the three favorites this year are in those three spots. Percentage makes that determine where we finished, but that doesn’t matter.
Feel free to keep discussing the counter to this argument but you will continue to be wrong.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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What'sinaname
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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You are so wrong E, because winning a flag isn't independent of percentage. A part of qualifying for finals is number of wins and percentage.
You can continue to be the only person on the planet who thinks percentage isn't important..
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Fighting against the objectification of woman. |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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E if teams 8 and 9 are on the same no of wins, one of them cannot win the flag, it’s simple, and that fits your definition!
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| think positive wrote: | | E if teams 8 and 9 are on the same no of wins, one of them cannot win the flag, it’s simple, and that fits your definition! |
Actually, if you are such a mediocre team that you make the 8 on percentage, you can’t win the flag either. So the right answer to your puzzle is that neither am can win the flag. 20 years later need this finals system proves that point.
Even though the dogs won from seventh, I think you’ll find they were two or three games clear of ninth.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| What'sinaname wrote: | You are so wrong E, because winning a flag isn't independent of percentage. A part of qualifying for finals is number of wins and percentage.
You can continue to be the only person on the planet who thinks percentage isn't important.. |
Its funny you say that, but it’s not true. If either the eagles or the pies are good enough to win the flag, they will. If their percentages were flipped the other way, the same statement would be true. How then can percentage matter if winning the flag is the only thing that matters.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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Raw Hammer
Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter
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E, just take the W and move on...
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Est. 2002 |
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npalm
Joined: 01 May 2005
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| Wokko wrote: | | Bump |
Sigh!
Where's the de-bump button?
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Side by side. |
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