Statistics, analytics & and cold hard facts

[qldmagpie67]

Today's footy is much different than football played a decade ago.
Everything from training, diet, preparation, coaching, free agency, trading, salary cap etc has all changed
But for mine the biggest changes are those attached to the stats and analytics and how coaches, media and supporters view them.
I've see in professional sport change in many ways and was part of a revolution that swept through rugby league in the mid 90's
That revolution was all about pay TV and cash nothing more, but what it did was start huge investments from media organisations from TV deals and more access to games for the supporters and much more intense coverage of the players and finally the analysts of there performances driven mostly by supporters who have a thirst for more reasons why there club is or isn't performing
I look at Collingwood circa 2018 and wonder what's been the biggest changes that have turned a team who was consistently inconsistent in 2017 with no noticeable game style or plan to a team that has when losing looks a much more skilled and who's style/game plan is noticeable.
I don't always put full value on the stats quoted by commentators and often prefer the eye test but in general people like David King and there graphs of scoring/defence ratios have stood the test of being quite accurate for the past decade.
During press conferences most coaches often refer to sheets of paper in front of them for stats to quantify reasons behind winning or losing.
I've spent a few days putting various parameters into champion data to see if there has been a marked improvement in our playing group.
Preseason we were ranked the 12th side for average champion data points ranking. Our midfield was solid but our defence was below average and our attack was well below average.
We had 7 players ranked in the top 100 in the preseason
The biggest difference to our ranking now (we are ranked 5th) is the increased ranking points gained by the players who started the season outside the top 5 players we had ranked in the champion data rankings.
JDG Phillips Crisp Scharenberg Thomas have been our biggest improves. All have increased there ranking points markedly
As champion data is a rolling system that comprises a 40-50 game span not all the players are showing full value yet but have impacted our overall ranking
Right now for players who have played 7 games or more we have only 3 who's ranking has either held steady or decreased (Dunn remained basically the same, Adams down 2.4% on 2017 and Langdon down 8.4% from starting points in 2018) Wells ranking has fallen 6.2% but he hasn't played the games I used as the main parameters
Adams is a interesting case as his finish to the 2027 saw him rocket up the rankings but this season he's dropped down a bit in ranking points whilst other players have surpassed him. Dunn I think doesn't that the kudos he deserves as he does the hardest job each week. He's not a huge possession getter which impacts his ranking points. Langdon is another interesting case. He's not a player I rate highly at all but I was surprised he had fallen as far as he had. He started the season ranked in the early 400's (by memory for 406th) and has now fallen to 432nd. The major variation in his stats was goals conceded per game on average going from 3.08 at the start of the season to 3.41 per game now.
On pure stats terms it's been the improvement in our mid teir ranked players that have led to our overall improvement as a team.
Pendles Treloar Grundy Adams Sidey still lead the way as our highest ranked players (both Pendles and Treloar are both still ranked top 10, Grundy is now top 25, Adams is still top 40 and Sidey has forced his way back inside the top 50 after starting the season in 61st place which is a huge jump because his averages are spread over his career games)
Sidey and Grundy have been our biggest improves in ranking point averages both increasing there ranking over 10% overall and considering the average points increase is around 3-4 points per game they have gone at a higher rate than the average which isn't a surprise when you look at there outstanding games this season.
Scharenberg is also a big improver but considering he's played as many games this season as he had in total previously he was bound to climb the rankings (he's now ranked 312th which doesn't sound great but he's yet to complete the full 40-50 game cycle needed to get the full value of his performances)
Phillips and JDG are the other massive movers. Both are now ranked just outside the top 100 players but started the season both ranked in the 200's
Whilst there are many other factors that have impacted our improvement the basic ranking points point directly to a far better overall team effort in winning games than in the past when too much was left too few

Can't wait to see if this side can sustain this improvement and what the end result could be

[MatthewBoydFanClub]

Just to correct you on one point. There has been a noticeable change in game plan as I understand it, from last season to this season. We are a more defensive team this year. You notice it not just in AFL games, but also at VFL level and at training. There is less manic pressure at the ball contests where last season you would commonly see 4-5 Collingwood players tackle 1-2 opposition players at the contest. I think Michael Gleeson from the Age newspaper wrote a very good article on this point. If you commit too many players at the contest and you lose possession, you open yourself up to the ball coming back the other way. Now we quickly move players back once we lose possession. We also followed Richmond's example of last year of rotating our mids on the forward line (in part to get around the reduction of numbers of interchanges to 90 per game). Our improvement has also come from the natural development of players like WHE, Scharenberg, Josh Thomas, Phillips and de Goey, who are now entrenched in our best 22.

[Woods]

Need to consider that players have been sacrificing their own games for the benefit of the team. That is the mark of Collingwood in 2018. For example, Buckley has spoken about Pendlebury's "legacy moment" when the captain took on a run-with role on an opposition player in the Carlton game. This is happening across the playing group. Players are sacrificing their own performance stats to achieve team success. These actions are not reflected positively in the data.

[Pies2016]

The “ statistical improvement “ in those players above shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone for one main reason. They have nearly all all gone from 10 / 20 game players in the last season or so, to 50 / 60 game players this year.
Most players who come into the game with any ability and a desire to improve, will show their greatest improvement spike somewhere between 30 to 100 games. If you have a good team profile with a good cross section of these player types, then there should be an expectation of improvement within the list.
These days the best statistical data is the data that is used as a differential measurement. That’s the numbers that are produced as a measurement against your peers in the same competition.
In a nutshell, C D can now produce data to show just how much Sharenberg has improved ( or not ) as compared to similar “ young “ general defenders at other clubs.
They now simply input his data against other general defenders with similar age and game parameters that match his. This data is more relevant because it shows whether he is tracking ahead of the competition average.

And if all that seems too over the top, then just revert back to the same golden rule when judging talent. Never judge a player after just a handful of games.

[MagpieDynasty]

From watching the matches to date, both live and on TV, I think the Two Way running ability has changed significantly. The likes of Phillips, Crisp, Treloar, Mayne, WHE, Thomas and Aish (prior to injury) etc have noticeably displayed an appetite for two way running.

Confidence and by extension, belief, is an amazing drug!

[DT]

Grundy Treloar and Pendlebury are all top ten in the Ratings now. Grundy is the no. 1 performed player (in the competition) in 2018 matches on his average ratings per match.

Phillips is now ranked 100 and has shot up along with WHE.

All these show objective criteria for individual player improvement and confirm what we can see with the marked team improvement. I think that this started in the second half of last year where we saw good performances against Adelaide and Melbourne converted into thumping wins this year. We also closed the gap on Port Adelaide last year and were not far away from beating them. It will be very interesting to see if we can get our nose in front this year when we play them. If we do then I really believe that we will finish in the top 6.

This is a really good topic and would encourage anyone with additional stats that support areas of improvement to contribute.

[BazBoy]

Agree on the stage where most player go from a learner to a player with impact.

The playing group leading the momentum are all in that bracket but I cannot
help to accociate the personal we have put in place

Nathan in a latest presser alluded to this and a guy who not really with match day coaching job (Culture Management) is there every game —out on the ground assist in warm up —-good one “Max”

So all these kids-no men!!! are thriving in the best possible environment seen at the club in many years

[RudeBoy]

I still reckon giving Leading Teams the arse, helped recover our culture. We are back to being a footy club, not a laboratory for dodgy consultants to milk us dry and add unnecessary stress.

[BazBoy]

If forgotten Leading Teams fiasco and yes going from a laboratory rat to a human being—gets a tick✅ for mine

And if we are diligent and embrace our getting back to a footy club what’s lies ahead is exciting

A dynasty where we rule

[Jezza]

[Mugwump]

^ I don’t necessarily disagree, but I think you’d have to be an insider to know. Often a culture change programme doesn’t show results until a few years after it began.

[warburton lad]

Only my view, but this was the toughest preseason I have seen in recent years- the players ran and ran and ran but, different to other years,the emphasis was on ball-skills and tackling was part of every drill from day one of this campaign.

With the higher emphasis on delivery under pressure, the skills were sharpened and training was closer to match day pressure.

The addition of Boyd, Hocking, Longmuir and Maxwell to the club cannot be underestimated. Each has added significantly to the 'culture and mindset' of the group.

[think positive]

[think positive]

[RudeBoy]