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Mighty Magpie's Offseason Trade and List Management Blog

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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:39 pm
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^^^

Great work M M. That’s a lot of work and foresight.

I keep hearing that the Crows are very keen to trade up the order so as to select either Lukosuis or Rankine at 2 or 3. Obviously this takes care of the go home factor and they have a few decent picks to help them move up the order.
I’m a Rhylee West fan, so I still think he will go a bit higher than Twomeys # 15 ( although I accept he’s the expert )

The other option is that we make the decision not to match the Quaynor bid.
This means we have far greater flexibility at the trade table ( presumably for May ) OR we target someone else other than a HBF with our first rounder.
The S A U 18 captain Luke Valente is a ripper as a genuine mid ( Twomey has him at 20 odd but his U18 championships were brilliant )

Obviously Free agency compensation and poor performance priority picks will muddy the waters also.

So much to play out but I keep thinking that by committing to Quaynor, we are reducing a number of other options that would otherwise open up to us.
Having said that, if he goes on to be a superstar elsewhere, that would be a difficult pill to swallow.
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:51 pm
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^
I factored in the likely 2 priority picks.

FA comp picks can’t be used for points. They may, of course, create additional picks in the first round.

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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:54 pm
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Cheers M M .
Didn’t realise F A comp picks couldn’t be used for points.
Plenty of anomolies in this system.
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AN_Inkling 



Joined: 06 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:20 pm
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You have Carlton and GC with picks 1, 2 and 3, 4. My understanding is any priority picks would be at the end of the first round.

Suns may get a compensation pick for Lynch straight after their first, but plenty to play out before that's known.

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:35 pm
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AN_Inkling wrote:
You have Carlton and GC with picks 1, 2 and 3, 4. My understanding is any priority picks would be at the end of the first round.

Suns may get a compensation pick for Lynch straight after their first, but plenty to play out before that's known.


Thanks. I can’t find whether that is set or at the discretion of the Commission. The last time they did it, it was an end of first round pick (Brisbane).

I’ll re-do the above adjusting for that when I get a chance.

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:10 pm
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Hypothetical Draft scenario based on R20 indicative picks and assuming GCS and CAR get priority picks AT END OF FIRST ROUND and bids are made on FS/NGA players according to rankings in Cal Twomey’s form guide. Free Agent Compensation picks have not been considered for this exercise.

COL picks: 13 (1,212 points), 47 (316 points), 49 from Sydney (287 points), 67 (69 points), 85 (0 points), total 1,884 points.

FIRST ROUND:

1 CAR
2 GCS
3 BRI
4 STK
5 WBD
6 FRE
[7] [ADE bid on Nick Blakey (SYD) matched, 1,644 points less 20% = 1,315 points. SYD pick 11 =1,329 leaving 14 excess points which equates to pick 73.]
[8] 7 ADE
[9] 8 ESS
[10] 9 NM
[11] [GEE bid on Tarryn Thomas (NM) matched, 1,395 points less 20% = 1,116 points. NM match with subsequent picks.]
[12] [GEE bid on Isaac Quaynor (COL) matched], 1,329 points less 20% = 1,063 points. COL pick 13 (now 14) = 1,161 points leaving 98 excess points which equates to pick 65.]
[13] 10 GEE
[] 11 SYD [Pick points used for Nick Blakey]
[14] 12 PTA
[] 13 COL [Pick points used for Isaac Quaynor]
[15] [HAW bid on Rhylee West (WBD) matched, 1,112 points less 20% = 890 points. WBD match with subsequent picks.]
[16] 14 HAW
[17] 15 ADE
[18] 16 GWS
[19] [GCS bid on Will Kelly (COL) matched, 948 points less fixed 197 points = 751 points. COL remaining pick value is 762 points, so 11 excess points gets us pick 73.]
[20] 17 GCS
[21] 18 RIC
[22] 19 CAR
[23] 20 GCS

A few takeaways:

1. If we match bids for Quaynor and Kelly then our "live" picks in the 2018 draft will likely be at the very end of the draft (eg 73) as we will likely need most of our points.

2. On current CT rankings, Quaynor is likely to majorly compromise our 2018 first rounder.

3. On current CT rankings, Kelly is unlikely to compromise our 2019 first rounder.

4. There may be merit in looking to move our first rounder up into the top 10 of the first round making it a much more likely "live" pick which would potentially mean getting a high pick draftee, Quaynor and Kelly in 2018. It would compromise our 2019 first, but it is open to us to trade that pick and use subsequent 2019 draft picks to satisfy the carry over points deficit.

5. A GCS FA compensation pick may dramatically change the situation for Norf.

As always, post any errors you see.

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Geek 

geek


Joined: 06 Apr 2006
Location: Jacana

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:54 am
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We won't be able to bid on anyone in 2019 if we have a deficit, yeah? Do we have any prospects in 2019 that we might want to have access to?
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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:26 am
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If you accept that we are entering our window and will be there with this squad for the next 5 years, why wouldn't you try to use all of your picks on trades this year to get top end talent like May, then take Lynch in FA and then use whatever points you happen to have left on all of your first round academy talent. Do not miss out on any person who will be a difference maker in the next 5 years just to preserve your 2019 draft picks.

Sure you may have to give up draft picks in later years, but who cares. the time is now to win flags with this team. Get as good as you can at all costs and deal with the rest later.

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:44 am
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Geek wrote:
We won't be able to bid on anyone in 2019 if we have a deficit, yeah? Do we have any prospects in 2019 that we might want to have access to?


Correct: "Clubs will not be eligible to participate in the bidding system if they still owe points going into the next draft."

And that is a good question that you pose.

Even if GCS get an FA comp pick we would probably only need to acquire a late second/third to have enough points to avoid going into deficit for Quaynor and Kelly.

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:48 am
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E wrote:
If you accept that we are entering our window and will be there with this squad for the next 5 years, why wouldn't you try to use all of your picks on trades this year to get top end talent like May, then take Lynch in FA and then use whatever points you happen to have left on all of your first round academy talent. Do not miss out on any person who will be a difference maker in the next 5 years just to preserve your 2019 draft picks.

Sure you may have to give up draft picks in later years, but who cares. the time is now to win flags with this team. Get as good as you can at all costs and deal with the rest later.


I broadly agree that we are in the "now", but the counter argument would be that we are in a position to potentially get 3 first rounders (pick, Quaynor, Kelly) in a supposed super draft (if we can get our first round pick above where Quaynor is bid on). If that first pick is an AFL-ready guy (a la Jaiydn Stephenson) that may set us up for longer.

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:23 am
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UPDATED for Round 21 Ladder.

Hypothetical Draft scenario based on R21 indicative picks (I did these manually) and assuming GCS and CAR get priority picks AT END OF FIRST ROUND. Picks are made and bids are made on FS/NGA players according to rankings in Cal Twomey’s form guide. Free Agent Compensation picks have not been considered for this exercise.

COL picks: 14 (1,161 points), 48 (302 points), 50 from Sydney (273 points), 68 (59 points), 86 (0 points), total 1,795 points.

FIRST ROUND:

1 CAR Sam Walsh
2 GCS Jack Lukosius
3 BRI Izak Rankine
4 STK Max King
5 WBD Bailey Smith
6 FRE Ben King
[7] [ADE bid on Nick Blakey (SYD) matched, 1,644 points less 20% = 1,315 points. SYD pick 13 =1,212 points so 103 points deficit to come off next pick 31.]
[8] 7 ADE Connor Rozee
[9] 8 ESS Jye Caldwell
[10] [NM bid on Isaac Quaynor (COL) matched], 1,395 points less 20% = 1,116 points. COL pick 14 (now 17) = 1,025 points leaving 91 points to come off next pick.]
[11] 9 NM Jackson Hately
[12] [GEE bid on Tarryn Thomas (NM) matched, 1,268 points less 20% = 1,014 points. NM match with subsequent picks.]
[13] 10 GEE Curtis Taylor
[14] 11 PTA Ian Hill
[15] [ADE bid on Rhylee West (WBD) matched, 1,112 points less 20% = 890 points. WBD match with subsequent picks.]
[16] 12 ADE (from MEL) Zak Butters
[] 13 SYD [Pick points used for Nick Blakey]
[] 14 COL [Pick points used for Isaac Quaynor]
[17] 15 HAW Riley Collier-Dawkins
[18] 16 GWS Chayce Jones
[19] [GCS bid on Will Kelly (COL) matched, 948 points less fixed 197 points = 751 points. COL remaining pick value is less, so points deficit to carry over to next year.]
[20] 17 GCS (from WCE) Connor McFadyen
[21] 18 RIC Jez McLennan
[22] 19 CAR Jordan Clark
[23] 20 GCS Xavier Duursma

Still on the board: Luke Valente, Bailey Williams.

A few takeaways:

1. If we match bids for Quaynor and Kelly then our "live" picks in the 2018 draft will likely be at the very end of the draft as we will likely exhaust our points (in the absence of trading in another pick).

2. On current CT rankings, Quaynor is likely to majorly compromise our 2018 first rounder.

3. On current CT rankings, Kelly is likely to compromise our 2019 first rounder (in the absence of trading in another pick) and prevent us participating in the FS/NGS process for 2019 (in the absence of trading in another 2018 pick).

4. There may be merit in looking to move our first rounder up into the top 10 of the first round making it a much more likely "live" pick which would potentially mean getting a high pick draftee, Quaynor and Kelly in 2018. It would compromise our 2019 first and prevent us participating in the FS/NGS process for 2019, but it is open to us to trade that pick and use subsequent 2019 draft picks to satisfy the carry over points deficit.

5. A GCS FA compensation pick for Lynch may dramatically change the situation for Norf.

As always, post any errors you see.

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Last edited by MightyMagpie on Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:41 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:31 am
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MightyMagpie wrote:
E wrote:
If you accept that we are entering our window and will be there with this squad for the next 5 years, why wouldn't you try to use all of your picks on trades this year to get top end talent like May, then take Lynch in FA and then use whatever points you happen to have left on all of your first round academy talent. Do not miss out on any person who will be a difference maker in the next 5 years just to preserve your 2019 draft picks.

Sure you may have to give up draft picks in later years, but who cares. the time is now to win flags with this team. Get as good as you can at all costs and deal with the rest later.


I broadly agree that we are in the "now", but the counter argument would be that we are in a position to potentially get 3 first rounders (pick, Quaynor, Kelly) in a supposed super draft (if we can get our first round pick above where Quaynor is bid on). If that first pick is an AFL-ready guy (a la Jaiydn Stephenson) that may set us up for longer.



Given our list profile, I would think that anyone over 6’ 4” who can seriously play, should be our focus. We already start next year without Dunn and Shaz. Reid and Moore up until now, can’t be relied upon to to string a sequence of games together, so who knows what to expect in 2019.

We would obviously hope to secure Lynch through free agency and not get caught up in a trade to make it happen.
May should be another priority, which is why I’m ok with passing on Quaynor and trading our first rounder and steak knives for May ( this assumes May is connected to collingwood and that GCS are interested in our first rounder )
The third piece of the puzzle is to just make sure we match the Kelly bid when his name is called out.
May and Kelly would be a good mix for our list profile. We add height, experience and hopefully secure a 10 year KPD with that return. However adding Lynch onto the list as a free agent seems more of a pipe dream than a reality.
The kicker to the above, is that by passing on Quaynor, we may have passed up a jet but I think balancing out our list profile when the window is open, should be the ultimate priority this off season.
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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:49 am
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^^^

I have mixed feelings about Lynch and May.

Lynch should not affect the above as I expect him to go as an FA and only cost $ if we get him.

May is contracted for 2019 and will cost in trade chips.

There are other less celebrated possibilities (let’s call them the Mihocek types) for those roles at least at a depth level - eg Sam Collins.

It’s hard, but getting the “value” picks/trades right makes a huge difference. Compare to getting Treloar who is a gun, but we gave up (potentially) two roughly Jaidyn Stephenson quality players for him.

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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:19 pm
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MightyMagpie wrote:
^^^

I have mixed feelings about Lynch and May.

Lynch should not affect the above as I expect him to go as an FA and only cost $ if we get him.

May is contracted for 2019 and will cost in trade chips.

There are other less celebrated possibilities (let’s call them the Mihocek types) for those roles at least at a depth level - eg Sam Collins.

It’s hard, but getting the “value” picks/trades right makes a huge difference. Compare to getting Treloar who is a gun, but we gave up (potentially) two roughly Jaidyn Stephenson quality players for him.


And I completely see your angle too. It’s a tough one.
If Dunn and Shaz hadn’t done knees and Reid and Moore hadn’t had injury history’s, I think I would have a different take.
What we do know, is that securing Kelly at a discounted rate, is a must.

The other trend that is starting to gather legs, is that 10 year quality KPPs are becoming harder to identify through the draft. So many first round talls in recent times have found it difficult to make the step up, possibly off the back of the anti density rules in the TAC.
I like the idea of knowing what you get with May and ( less likely ) Lynch. They will continue to be walk up starts for the next five years, barring injury.

As you alluded to earlier, hopefully the club has identified a low profile mature age player out there who can do that job and slot in ready made for 2019.
It can be done, just ask Tom Stewart.
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LaurieHolden Aquarius

Floreat Gymnorhina tyrannica


Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Location: Victoria Park

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:51 pm
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Just an outlier for those following the prospects in the coming draft.
There's a young Lions Academy player named Connor McFadyen I'd have before any of our Acadamey prospects. This kid will be a gun and has Captaincy potential. Looms as the T-600 model of Taylor Adams.

While I could envisage Lions not taking him at 3, this kid will go top 10 so the Lions will have to roll forward their likely next pick 21 (878 points) and compile sufficient points via trading up remaining + future picks to match any offers.
I can't see the Lions letting him go, but if there was any chance we could secure him, we need to have a crack. With a slew of father sons and Academy players available in a very strong draft, this might be the spanner in the works that could see clubs forced into a corner.

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