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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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Post subject: 1-8 against top 8. WC down a rotation. Enough excuses! | |
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Just not good enough this year i am afraid. Especially not given the injuries we now have.
Reload with Lynch and May and consider what to do with the Chronic.
By the way, percentage matters to this analysis. If Geelong had a better percentage, we'd be 0-7!! _________________ Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk .......
Last edited by E on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:50 pm; edited 5 times in total |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004 Location: Lexus Centre
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Of course had we won tonight, we would still be 1-6 against the top 8! |
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lihei
Joined: 07 Sep 2003 Location: One-Eyed Hill
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Thats a true thing. We've improved plenty this year, just not against the top teams. _________________ VOTE NO. Cancel the Cancel Culture. |
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Big T
Joined: 18 Oct 2003 Location: Torino, Italy
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Season isn't over yet. _________________ Buon Giorno |
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Johnno75
Joined: 07 Oct 2010 Location: Wantirna
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When we lost Moore that made our injury list at 14. If anything the club has to have a serious review about this. You can’t compete with the top teams with that sort of injury profile no matter how much heart you put in. _________________ Human behavioural studies suggest people who use a lot of swear words tend to be more honest & trustworthy. |
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AN_Inkling
Joined: 06 Oct 2007
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This is a very weak post. _________________ Well done boys! |
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September Zeros
Joined: 04 Oct 2012 Location: Behind you
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AN_Inkling wrote: | This is a very weak post. |
Yep- sorry E but it shows little insight into circumstance. _________________ No Pressure, No Diamonds
They used to be a happy team at hawthorn.
________________ |
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Redlight
Joined: 11 Jun 2009
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Johnno75 wrote: | When we lost Moore that made our injury list at 14. If anything the club has to have a serious review about this. You can’t compete with the top teams with that sort of injury profile no matter how much heart you put in. |
Absolutely true. Since 2012 we've had a constant issue with injuries. Many of them have been knees, which I've just put down to bad luck, but no-one is that unlucky.
I'm starting to wonder if there's some common factor - is it possible that something that makes hamstring injuries more likely could also increase the chances of knee ligament failures?
I've heard a theory that our injuries could be something to do with our training ground, which the club denies, but there is definitely something going on. |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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September Zeros wrote: | AN_Inkling wrote: | This is a very weak post. |
Yep- sorry E but it shows little insight into circumstance. |
can you explain. What do you mean by "circumstance"? Do you think i didn't acknowledge injuries have had a hand to play? The point wasn't whether or not at full strength we might win a few more games. The point was that i think we arent good enough right now to best the teams in the 8, that this isnt going to get better (given that injuries keep piling up) and that my focus is moving onto 2019.
What is weak about that. Cant you guys handle the truth? _________________ Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010 Location: Ponsford End
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I find the stat misleading to be honest.
Had we lost to North two weeks ago, they'd be in the eight as we speak. The Bombers team we defeated a few weeks ago have only lost three games since round 9, so they've arguably been performing like a top 4 team despite their current ladder position and we defeated a Crows team who would be pushing for a top 8 spot had they defeated us in round 4.
Also, we benefited from finishing in the bottom 6 last year which inevitably translated into an "easier" draw. Richmond benefited from this last year and were often accused of beating no one throughout the year as well, and yet they stepped it up when it mattered and won the flag.
Factually, it's not incorrect to say we're 1-6 against the current top 8 sides, but context is always required when we analyse these stats. _________________ | 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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Jezza wrote: | I find the stat misleading to be honest.
Had we lost to North two weeks ago, they'd be in the eight as we speak. The Bombers team we defeated a few weeks ago have only lost three games since round 9, so they've arguably been performing like a top 4 team despite their current ladder position and we defeated a Crows team who would be pushing for a top 8 spot had they defeated us in round 4.
Also, we benefited from finishing in the bottom 6 last year which inevitably translated into an "easier" draw. Richmond benefited from this last year and were often accused of beating no one throughout the year as well, and yet they stepped it up when it mattered and won the flag.
Factually, it's not incorrect to say we're 1-6 against the current top 8 sides, but context is always required when we analyse these stats. |
i would have thought that this is one of those stats that requires no context.
Actually we are 1-7 against the top 9 so its not like the team outside the 8 is causing distortion.
Of the best 8 teams that are running around other than us, we've beaten EXACTLY one of them.
Its ok to admit we arent quite there. Who knows where we would be if we had a full list to chose from (or even if we didn't get injuries - sometimes multiple - inside of those particular games). I'd be fairly sure we would have won a few more. But context is not required for this. It isn't close!
10-0 against bottom 9!
1-7 against top 9!
Fact! _________________ Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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What'sinaname
Joined: 29 May 2010 Location: Living rent free
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I thought it pretty obvious too.
As much as we want to say almost, nearly, coulda, woulda....we just can't beat the better teams. _________________ Fighting against the objectification of woman. |
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Piethagoras' Theorem
the hypotenuse, is always a cakewalk
Joined: 29 May 2006
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The stat is saying everything but telling us nothing. _________________ Formally frankiboy and FrankieGoesToCollingwood. |
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Brown26
Joined: 14 Sep 2001 Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Isn't it 1 -5 ? Have I forgotten a loss?
If anything, this stat shows that we are doubly cursed on the injury front. No one can question really that if Moore played out the game (even another 1 quarter) we would have won tonight. Taking away the loss of very good players for long periods of time, if you simply look at the games where we've lost players DURING the game, therefore having less rotations and having a significant impact on the result, we would have beaten Sydney, GWS (earlier in the year) and probably Geelong (9th) and last weeks game would have been touch and go against Richmond.
Sier didn't finish the game vs WC but didn't impact the result. The Hawks in round one I think we went through unscathed. We haven't played Port yet and we beat Melbourne. SO IF we had a full 22 on the park for the whole game we would be 2 - 3 wins better now (depending on if we beat Richmond; Sydney and GCS are definite IMO), we'd be 3 and 3 to 4 and 2 against the top 8 sides. That's just from men on the park, not even Elliot, Reid, Dunn, Shaz long term injuries etc. We'd also be equal top on percentage, or a game clear in second (depending on the Richmond result).
So what does that tell you - we can beat most of the top 8 teams if we don't have injuries during the match. If we get Howe, Reid, De Goey, Treloar, Elliot etc back that will be nice and a bonus. The key is, try to stay on the park! Then we have a chance of going deep into September. Playing iwth one or two rotations down for half a game against top sides is hard.
- Ben |
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tbaker
Joined: 02 Jul 2018 Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG
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Brown26 wrote: | The Hawks in round one I think we went through unscathed. |
Josh Smith did his hamstring late in the game _________________ I find your lack of faith disturbing |
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