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The run home

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:13 am
Post subject: The run homeReply with quote

Here's a run-down for all of the teams still in finals contention:

1. Richmond (15 wins, 4 losses, 135.7%)

To play: Gold Coast, Essendon, Western Bulldogs
Highest: 1st
Lowest: 3rd
Likely: 1st

Richmond can't finish lower than 3rd mathematically – that could only happen if they lose all three games and GWS win all three (plus West Coast win at least two of theirs). Only win one and they finish second if West Coast win the rest of their matches; otherwise, whatever transpires, they'll finish top of the ladder. I doubt they'll lose another game from here, with only a huge upset in round 22 vaguely likely.

2. West Coast (14 wins, 5 losses, 124.1%)

To play: Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane
Highest: 1st
Lowest: 9th
Likely: 2nd

Would need to win all three games and for Richmond to lose two out of their last three to finish 1st, and that's not going to happen. Will finish 2nd if they win at least two of their last three games, and could still finish there if they win only one out of three (though would more likely drop to 3rd or 4th in that scenario). If they lose all of their games, they likely slip to 6th, with the unlikely possibility of slipping out of the 8 altogether. I'm tipping them to win all three and finish second two-and-a-half games clear of their next rival.

3. GWS (12 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw, 120.8%)

To play: Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne
Highest: 1st
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 3rd

Probably only need to win two out of their next three to finish top four (I have them losing to Sydney but still finishing third), but if they only win one, they likely finish 8th and quite possibly miss out altogether. Lose all three and they won't play finals; win all three and they can finish 2nd if West Coast only win one of their next three.

4. Melbourne (12 wins, 7 losses, 132.8%)

To play: Sydney, West Coast, GWS
Highest: 1st
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 8th

Win all three games and they finish 2nd or 3rd, depending on whether Port beat West Coast (only a mathematical chance to finish 1st, of course). They can afford to drop one game and probably still play top 4 with their superior percentage (I'd have them third in that scenario), but lose two, as I predict they will (against West Coast and GWS), and their finals chances are in jeopardy – most likely, they finish 8th or 9th in that scenario.

5. Hawthorn (12 wins, 7 losses, 121.4%)

To play: Geelong, St Kilda, Sydney
Highest: 2nd
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 9th

Hawthorn probably need to win all three to play top 4, in which case they would likely finish 3rd; otherwise, one loss sees them possibly stuck in 5th, and two losses means they quite likely miss the 8 altogether. I expect they'll lose to both Geelong and Sydney, and miss the finals on percentage.

6. Collingwood (12 wins, 7 losses, 117.1%)

To play: Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Fremantle
Highest: 2nd
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 5th

I'm sure we all know our equation by now. Win all three, we finish third or fourth; win two (as I'm predicting we will), we probably finish in the 5th to 7th range; only win one and we quite possibly miss out altogether. If we do only win one out of the next three, we'll be hoping that Sydney lose two of their next three (which is entirely possible) or else that Melbourne lose all three games. It helps that they're playing each other, at least!

7. Port Adelaide (12 wins, 7 losses, 114.9%)

To play: West Coast, Collingwood, Essendon
Highest: 2nd
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 6th

Win all three and they likely finish 3rd; more likely, I expect they'll lose next week and then win their last two, in which case expect them to finish somewhere around 6th to 7th. Lose against West Coast and us, and I expect their season is over altogether, with even North Melbourne likely to finish higher on percentage.

8. Sydney (12 wins, 7 losses, 109.6%)

To play: Melbourne, GWS, Hawthorn
Highest: 2nd
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 7th

Like the teams above them, Sydney still has a good chance of finishing top 4 if they win all three games (probably 3rd). I expect they'll lose to Melbourne next week but have close wins over GWS and Hawthorn, which means that they likely end up finishing 7th. Lose two games and their poor percentage means they almost certainly miss out.

9. Geelong (11 wins, 8 losses, 118.8%)

To play: Hawthorn, Fremantle, Gold Coast
Highest: 3rd
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 4th

Geelong may seem like they're struggling right now, but they actually have the softest draw of nearly any top 8 contender, and chances of big percentage boosters in rounds 22 and 23. The real 50/50 contest is next week against Hawthorn – win that (as I think they will, in a close one), and they most likely finish either 4th or 5th (I have them just making the top 4 on percentage from, I'm sorry to say, us); lose, and they probably miss the finals altogether! (Bizarrely, I also have Hawthorn 4th if they win that game and 9th if they lose; pretty incredible to think a single game could have such contrasting consequences for both clubs.)

10. North Melbourne (11 wins, 8 losses, 110.1%)

To play: Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, St Kilda
Highest: 3rd
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 10th

The equation is pretty simple for North: win all three games and they're in, likely around 5th to 7th (mathematically, they can finish top 4, but that's very unlikely); lose just one (say, against Adelaide), and it's almost certainly season over. It helps their cause that they're playing two cellar dwellers, but I suspect Adelaide will be a bridge too far and they'll miss out on percentage.

11. Essendon (10 wins, 9 losses, 102.3%)

To play: St Kilda, Richmond, Port Adelaide
Highest: 5th
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 12th

Essendon are only really a mathematical chance at this stage, of course – they'd need to win all three, plus hope for a couple of results such as Collingwood beating Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs beating North Melbourne (crazier results get them as high as 5th) – even in the best case scenario, they're likely to finish no higher than 11th. The Richmond game alone should ensure that all of this is merely a fantasy.

12. Adelaide (10 wins, 9 losses, 98.6%)

To play: GWS, North Melbourne, Carlton
Highest: 6th
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 11th

Like Essendon, Adelaide need to win all three games and have other results fall their way, but unlike Essendon the first is actually within the realm of possibility. Also unlike Essendon, however, their percentage is quite poor. They're an outside chance of knocking off GWS next week, and then should go in as favourites in round 22 and round 23, with the chance of a (likely futile) percentage boost in the latter. I have them winning 2 out of 3 and finishing 11th; win all three, and they're still likely to finish in exactly the same place, probably requiring three of Melbourne, North Melbourne, Sydney and Hawthorn to lose winnable games to sneak into the top 8.

This is how I expect the final ladder to look:

1. Richmond 18/4 145%
2. West Coast 17/5 126%
3. GWS 14/7/1 117%
4. Geelong 14/8 127%
5. Collingwood 14/8 118%
6. Port Adelaide 14/8 114%
7. Sydney 14/8 111%
8. Melbourne 13/9 127%

9. Hawthorn 13/9 120%
10. North Melbourne 13/9 112%
11. Adelaide 12/10 102%
12. Essendon 11/11 103%
13. Fremantle 8/14 80%
14. Western Bulldogs 7/15 74%
15. Brisbane 5/17 90%
16. St Kilda 4/17/1 70%
17. Gold Coast 4/18 59%
18. Carlton 2/20 60%

Finals:
Richmond vs Geelong
West Coast vs GWS
Collingwood vs Melbourne
Port Adelaide vs Sydney

Geelong vs Melbourne
GWS vs Port Adelaide

Richmond vs GWS
West Coast vs Geelong

Richmond vs West Coast

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:32 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Really nice work David, thanks.

But you expect us to crash out in Week 1 of finals against Melbourne ? Not sure about that, on exposed form....

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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:34 am
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Nice work David.
Seems like the team we should be barracking against the most, is GWS.
You have them finishing in third and us fifth, with only percentage separating both teams.
They now have injuries and a tough run home, so it wouldn’t be asking much for them to falter and then slip below our “ anticipated “ fifth spot.
There will still be an upset or two and the trick is to hope that we aren’t the ones who have dropped one we shouldn’t.
We certainly need both DeGoey and Howe back much sooner than later too.


Last edited by Pies2016 on Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 am; edited 1 time in total
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Piesnchess 

piesnchess


Joined: 09 Jun 2008


PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:35 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

I cant see the arrogant Tigers not winning the flag, unfortunately,. The only thing that can stop the bastards is sudden long injuries to dusty, rance, jack or cocthin, or the Punt rd end being swallowed by a sink hole.!!
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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:45 am
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Piesnchess wrote:
I cant see the arrogant Tigers not winning the flag, unfortunately,. The only thing that can stop the bastards is sudden long injuries to dusty, rance, jack or cocthin, or the Punt rd end being swallowed by a sink hole.!!


I reckon Nankervis is more important than the others.
Those other players have all been together for a while and they were rubbish for years. The moment Nankervis went there, they started winning.
And remember what Grundy did to them when he went off.
If they lose the big man, it becomes a different finals series very quickly.
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:46 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Pies2016 wrote:
Nice work David.
Seems like the team we should be barracking against the most, is GWS.
You have them finishing in third and us fifth, with only percentage separating both teams.
They now have injuries and a tough run home, so it wouldn’t be asking much for them to falter and then slip below our “ anticipated “ fifth spot.
There will still be an upset or two and the trick is to hope that we aren’t the ones who have dropped one we shouldn’t.


Thanks! The tricky thing with this (and also with other teams around us) is that if one team goes down, another bobs up. For instance, GWS losing to Adelaide would be a real game changer for us and dramatically increase our chances of making the top 4; but it's much more likely that, if they're to lose a second game (that is, beside the Sydney game I have them pencilled in to drop), it'd be against Melbourne – in which case, according to my prediction, Melbourne jump ahead of us instead. And then if Melbourne beat GWS but lose to Sydney, it's Sydney that go to fourth instead of us. And so on! A draw in any of those games would be much appreciated...

I think it's near certain at this stage that, unless we beat Port Adelaide, the winner of the Geelong/Hawthorn game will finish on the same number of points as us, and both currently have a superior percentage, with Geelong in the better position to add to it. That means that, unless Adelaide upset GWS next week, our most plausible path to the top 4 if we only win two is for Hawthorn to beat Geelong but lose to Sydney, and for us to then make up the percentage difference with the Hawks (which at present is equivalent to just over eight goals). Keep in mind that we would still need West Coast to beat Port next week and GWS to beat either Sydney or Melbourne in that scenario. Much better for us to win all three, needless to say!

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Johnno75 



Joined: 07 Oct 2010
Location: Wantirna

PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:55 pm
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Yeah tend to agree that loss to Sydney has most likely cost us the double chance.
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Raw Hammer 



Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter

PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:38 pm
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It’s just made the double chance harder.

We win all three we should get 4th.

Win just 1 and it’s 8th/9th depending on percentage. Roos vs GCS could lift North’s percentage big time, which would make our fourth qtr vs Freo and lacklustre effort vs Carlton a big stuff up.

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MatthewBoydFanClub 



Joined: 12 Feb 2007
Location: Elwood

PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:53 pm
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Thanks for all the work you did but prefer not to think about. Just want to concentrate on beating Brisbane this weekend.
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Raw Hammer 



Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter

PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:43 pm
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Yep. All the “we need a percentage boost” stuff is stupid

No, we simply need to WIN. Yes, if we’re lucky enough to be up 40-50 in a last quarter, we go for the jugular, but we’re so freakin’ decimated right now let’s just hope for a W in the win-loss column.

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Skids Cancer

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:37 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

We really should win all 3!

Beat the Lions this week, hopefully a few more ins the following week and put Port in their place. Finish with a big win over the Dockers and go into the pre finals bye full of confidence.

I see that bye benefiting no one more than us.

1st Final - v tigers/Wiggles in 30 days.

My top 8

Richmond
WCE
GWS
PIES
Cats
Hawks
Melb
North

Finals:
Richmond vs Pies
West Coast vs GWS
Cats vs North
Hawks vs D's

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Presti35 Virgo

Dick Lee for Legend Status


Joined: 05 Oct 2001
Location: London, England

PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:32 pm
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I think we can win all 3.

If we do, do we want to play the Eagles in Perth without NicNat and Gaff? Or do we want to stay in Melbourne and have a third crack at Richmond for the year?

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Skids Cancer

Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175

PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:12 pm
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Presti35 wrote:
I think we can win all 3.

If we do, do we want to play the Eagles in Perth without NicNat and Gaff? Or do we want to stay in Melbourne and have a third crack at Richmond for the year?


We can win anywhere Cool

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masoncox 

masoncox


Joined: 31 Aug 2015


PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:51 pm
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Bloody Hawks with an ordinary side currently sitting in the top 5.
How the hell do they do it!!!!!!!
I despise them but they really are an amazing outfit.
13 flags to ours 2 in the last 60 or so years.
I could not bear to see these mongrels fluke another flag this year.


Last edited by masoncox on Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:41 am; edited 1 time in total
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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:17 pm
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if any other team competing for a finals spot had our draw for the remainder of the season we would be bemoaning the easy run home they have compared to us. Ours might be the easiest out of all of them.

If we can win at least 2 of 3 against the teams we are playing, then we should tip our cap, thank the sponsors and walk away knowing we arent good enough to do ANTYTHING in the finals.

If we cant win 3 of 3, i am not sure we are a bona fide premiership threat. Port at the G should be a W for a team that thinks they can get past GWS, Rich and WCE in the last 2 weeks of September.

So really, fretting isn't worth it. We will finish where we deserve to finish. Heck, we could fail to beat a top 8 team all year and still finish 6th!

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