The run home

[daicos from the boundry]

I’m still waiting for us to have that real shocker of a game where things just don’t go right that most teams have in the second half of the season. West Coast game wasn’t great but we were in that for the majority of the game. My issue with the way we play is with the high intensity style which is proving to be to hard to sustain for the full 4 quarters.
If we can’t win 2 out of the last 3 we don’t deserve to play finals. Hoping we don’t run out of petrol tickets.

[Raw Hammer]

Which team doesn’t try to play a high intensity game? Maybe Brisbane due to its run n gun plan. That’s it.

I’d say the Carlton game was a day where nothing went right, we were just lucky to b playing Carlton. The sterling game was diabolical from go to whoa as well.

Quite simply, were to do to be blown away. On the flip side, we play anywhere near our poential, personnel or not, we win comfortably.

[eddiesmith]

The simple fact is, if you can’t beat Brisbane or Freo then you don’t deserve to be playing finals

As for the shocker, West Coast and Sydney games were terrible performances

[Abdul The Bull]

[David]

After Round 21:

1. Richmond (16 wins, 4 losses, 139.7%)

To play: Essendon, Western Bulldogs
Highest: 1st
Lowest: 2nd
Likely: 1st

Can only miss out on first if they lose both and Eagles win both. Obviously can’t see them dropping either.

2. West Coast (15 wins, 5 losses, 123.4%)

To play: Melbourne, Brisbane
Highest: 1st
Lowest: 5th
Likely: 2nd

Apart from the scenario described above, West Coast only need to win one to finish 2nd, and could quite likely finish there even if they lost both. Would only start dropping positions if that happened and one or more of GWS, Hawthorn and Collingwood won both.

3. GWS (13 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw, 120.4%)

To play: Sydney, Melbourne
Highest: 2nd
Lowest: 8th
Likely: 6th

Can’t miss the finals now, but no guarantees of finishing top 4 with two really difficult games to play (and a substantial injury list). I reckon they might lose both, with the final match against Melbourne a hard one to call. One win might just be enough for top 4, but they run a more or less equal risk of finishing 5th.

4. Hawthorn (13 wins, 7 losses, 121.2%)

To play: St Kilda, Sydney
Highest: 2nd
Lowest: 9th
Likely: 3rd

Will beat St Kilda comfortably, you’d think, so their top 4 chances rest on the Sydney game. Win both and they probably finish 3rd or 4th (though we could possibly overtake them on percentage and leave them 5th); win only one and a home elimination final is more likely.

5. Collingwood (13 wins, 7 losses, 118.3%)

To play: Port Adelaide, Fremantle
Highest: 2nd
Lowest: 9th
Likely: 4th

Our return to form on the weekend plus Port’s injury list makes me a lot more confident that we’ll beat them, though I think it’ll be close. Win both games and we basically need one of GWS or Hawthorn to lose one of their last two games in order to finish top 4 (unless we catch the latter on percentage), so it’s no certainty – but given Sydney’s form, I expect them to win at least one of the next two against those teams, so it should be fine.

Win only one, though, and we can still actually finish top 4 – and what’s more surprising, we actually still do according to my prediction. That, though, is because I currently have Sydney beating GWS, Melbourne beating GWS and Hawthorn beating Sydney – all games that could quite easily go either way (I’m also presuming that West Coast beat Melbourne next week). If any of those other results go against us, we drop to 5th or 6th (another permutation that gets us into 4th is that GWS beat Sydney and Sydney beat Hawthorn by enough for us to catch the Hawks on percentage – a little less likely, that one). This is all presuming a close loss to Port; if they thrash us by 50+, their percentage potentially catches up to ours and we risk facing them in an Adelaide elimination final.

Lastly, if we lose our last two, it’s pretty likely that we miss out altogether and finish 9th. In that scenario, we’d be hoping for GWS to win against one of Sydney or Melbourne to keep us alive.

6. Sydney (13 wins, 7 losses, 109.7%)

To play: GWS, Hawthorn
Highest: 3rd
Lowest: 11th
Likely: 5th

Given they’re playing two teams above them, the equation is simple for Sydney: win both, and they finish in the top 4. Win one, and they possibly still sneak into 4th, but more likely get a home elimination final. Lose both, and their percentage means they almost certainly miss out altogether

7. Melbourne (12 wins, 8 losses, 130.5%)

To play: West Coast, GWS
Highest: 3rd
Lowest: 11th
Likely: 7th

Win both, and they’re still a chance for top 4, but would need a lot of other results to go their way. Win one, and their percentage ensures that they get in, possibly as high as 5th; lose both, and they’re out.

8. Port Adelaide (12 wins, 8 losses, 113.9%)

To play: Collingwood, Essendon
Highest: 4th
Lowest: 11th
Likely: 9th

Would need a lot to go right to finish 4th, and if they lose to us next week they’ll be relying on Melbourne and/or Sydney falling over to make it (as Geelong will almost certainly overtake them).

9. Geelong (11 wins, 9 losses, 117.2%)

To play: Fremantle, Gold Coast
Highest: 5th
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 8th

Probably still make it from here. Presuming they win their last two well, they only need us to beat Port, or else for one of Collingwood, Sydney or Melbourne to lose their last two.

10. North Melbourne (11 wins, 9 losses, 109.1%)

To play: Adelaide, St Kilda
Highest: 6th
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 10th

Pretty hard for North, given their percentage. Unrealistic results aside, they need to win both and then hope that two of Port, Sydney or Melbourne each lose their last two games.

11. Essendon (11 wins, 9 losses, 104.8%)

To play: Richmond, Port Adelaide
Highest: 6th
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 12th

See above. Besides winning both games, they need us to beat Port, Adelaide to beat North and then Melbourne to lose to West Coast and GWS. None of those are outside the realm of possibility, but beating Richmond might well be.

PS: Adelaide are still a mathematical chance, but I’ll spare you all those permutations.

1. Richmond 18/4 143%
2. West Coast 17/5 126%
3. Hawthorn 15/7 123%
4. Collingwood 15/7 118%
5. Sydney 14/8 109%
6. GWS 13/1/8 117%
7. Melbourne 13/9 126%
8. Geelong 13/9 124%

9. Port Adelaide 13/9 114%
10. North Melbourne 12/10 109%
11. Adelaide 12/10 102%
12. Essendon 11/11 100%
13. Fremantle 8/14 81%
14. Western Bulldogs 8/14 77%
15. Brisbane 5/17 90%
16. St Kilda 4/17/1 73%
17. Gold Coast 4/18 60%
18. Carlton 2/20 59%

[piedys]

[Damien]

Great analysis David. I hope you’re spot on. Using the ladder predictor I’ve got us playing either Richmond (two wins) or Port (one win) either would be at the G.

[MightyMagpie]

http://twitter.com/aflratings/status/1028590706959429632

[piedys]

[taff wa]

[quote="piedys"][quote="MightyMagpie"]http://twitter.com/aflratings/status/1028590706959429632[/quote]

Nah, might give 3rd spot and going to Perth to play Weasels a bit of a miss thanks; 4th spot more appealing for a QF night game against tiggers.[/quote]

On the other hand travel to Perth week 1 of finals or travelling to Perth for a preliminary, I know what I'd prefer.

[Skids]

You're a peanut!

One week, that's ONE week after your initial dribble and ladder predictor, you've changed, every position on the ladder... except the top 2!
Hardly going to knock off Dick Tracy are we.

Just stick to vegan recipes mate.

[Cam]

[E]

[E]

[RudeBoy]

With Howe, Goldsack and Treloar back in the side, we can beat anyone anywhere.