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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:44 am
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Skids wrote:
You're a peanut!

One week, that's ONE week after your initial dribble and ladder predictor, you've changed, every position on the ladder... except the top 2!
Hardly going to knock off Dick Tracy are we.

Just stick to vegan recipes mate.


Lol, settle petal. The reason the predicted positions have changed is because a) a few games didn’t go as expected this round (I had tipped Geelong, Melbourne and North to win), and b) because events of the weekend have led me to change a couple of other tips in rounds 22 to 23 (most notably, I now think we will beat Port given the players they lost on Saturday night).

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Mugwump 



Joined: 28 Jul 2007
Location: Between London and Melbourne

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:03 am
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^ Goldie is probably optional, but the other two are central to a realistic attempt. Howe is probably fine, Treloar might be good if we can get to week 2 of finals 5 weeks away. Let’s hope so !
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tbaker 



Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:19 pm
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Skids wrote:
You're a peanut!

One week, that's ONE week after your initial dribble and ladder predictor, you've changed, every position on the ladder... except the top 2!
Hardly going to knock off Dick Tracy are we.

Just stick to vegan recipes mate.

Well, that's what unexpected results do to anyone's predictor...

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:25 pm
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Nice work David. This season will pretty much be up in the air until the end of round 23. It's a ripper season (so long as we make it).
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RudeBoy 



Joined: 28 Nov 2005


PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:53 pm
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Unfortunately, even if (as expected) we win our remaining 2 games, I am tipping both GWS and the Hawks to win their 2 games, which would keep us out of the top 4. Hope I'm wrong, but unfortunately the Cats let us down, by not beating the Hawks.
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tbaker 



Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:23 pm
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^ I think we'll be ok for top 4, as long as we win our 2 games. With the hawks & giants, three of the four games are 50/50 so it'd be tough for them to win them all. We only need one to falter...but let's just get our boys over the line first (we're no certainty against what will be a desperate Port)
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Crazypie 



Joined: 21 May 2018


PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:44 pm
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Sydney at the SCG will beat the hawks and the Dee's will beat GWS at the g

Swans will need to beat the hawks to make the 8 and the Dee's will need to beat GWS to make the 8 too much riding on the game to lose them.

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piedys Taurus

Heeeeeeere's Dyso!!!


Joined: 04 Sep 2003
Location: Resident Forum Psychopath since 2003

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:15 pm
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E wrote:
taff wa wrote:
piedys wrote:
MightyMagpie wrote:
http://twitter.com/aflratings/status/1028590706959429632


Nah, might give 3rd spot and going to Perth to play Weasels a bit of a miss thanks; 4th spot more appealing for a QF night game against tiggers.


On the other hand travel to Perth week 1 of finals or travelling to Perth for a preliminary, I know what I'd prefer.


Exactly! And by the way, in what universe does anyone think we have a better shot of beating the tigers than the Eagles (anywhere). The home and away thing is totally overrated.

Give me the Eagles and a chance to play a home prelim against NOT THE TIGERS any day of the week. If we try and fail, we probably aren't good enough to win the flag, but at least we will still get a shot against the tigers if we deserve it (its just that it will be in a prelim rather than in the grand final).


My logic: we haven't got the talls in defence to take down Kennedy and Darling in WA, let alone the MCG. Let Whorethorn or GWS try to produce a miracle against them, and run them into the dirt. At worst we get to play GWS in NSW, or best Whorethorn at the MCG in PF, if I understand the system correctly?

The tiggers KNOW we aren't far off them; hit them with everything week one and aim for a home PF.

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MightyMagpie 



Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA

PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:34 pm
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Overall: http://twitter.com/championdata/status/1029631155325128704

Winless: http://twitter.com/championdata/status/1029632493471727621

Premiers! http://twitter.com/championdata/status/1029633598448525312

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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:37 pm
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Do you like being a it?
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:05 pm
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After Round 22:

1. Richmond (17 wins, 4 losses, 138.3%)

To play: Western Bulldogs
Highest: 1st
Lowest: 1st
Likely: 1st

Have been mathematically assured of a first-place finish since Friday night, so may as well rest half the side this week and enjoy the break.

2. West Coast (15 wins, 6 losses, 120.8%)

To play: Brisbane
Highest: 2nd
Lowest: 4th
Likely: 2nd

Eagles finish 2nd if they win, and 2nd, 3rd or 4th if they lose (probably 3rd) – see below for further details.

3. Collingwood (14 wins, 7 losses, 120.7%)

To play: Fremantle
Highest: 2nd
Lowest: 6th
Likely: 3rd

In short, win and we’re guaranteed a top 4 spot. If Brisbane beat West Coast* and Sydney beat Hawthorn (or Hawthorn win by a margin less than 17 points more than we do), we finish 2nd and play either West Coast or Hawthorn at the MCG; otherwise, we’re probably 3rd and face a trip to Perth in week 1. We only finish 4th and play Richmond if we win and Hawthorn overtake us on percentage, which doesn’t seem terribly likely (you’d expect the Sydney/Hawthorn match to be a close one, even if for some reason we only squeak home against Freo).

Lose against Fremantle and we finish 5th or 6th and have a home elimination final. 5th and an elimination final against Geelong or Melbourne is more likely; we only finish 6th (with a final against GWS, Geelong or Melbourne at the MCG) if Sydney beat Hawthorn by a margin less than three goals under our losing margin to Fremantle (or if the Swans/Hawks match ends in a draw).

*There is a gap of about 9 points between our percentage and West Coast’s, so if they lose by less than a goal and we win by less than a goal they still possibly finish above us.

4. Hawthorn (14 wins, 7 losses, 120.5%)

To play: Sydney
Highest: 2nd
Lowest: 6th
Likely: 6th

Their game against Sydney decides which of the two teams plays top 4; win and they go as high as second if West Coast lose and we lose to Fremantle. Lose and they’re 6th and face either the loser of the Melbourne/GWS game or Geelong.

5. Sydney (14 wins, 7 losses, 110.6%)

To play: Hawthorn
Highest: 3rd
Lowest: 6th
Likely: 4th

Win and they finish top 4 (3rd if we lose); lose and they’re 6th.

6. GWS (13 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw, 118.1%)

To play: Melbourne
Highest: 4th
Lowest: 7th
Likely: 7th

Win and they finish 4th or 5th, depending on the result of our game against Freo. Lose and they’re 7th.

7. Melbourne (13 wins, 8 losses, 129.8%)

To play: GWS
Highest: 4th
Lowest: 8th
Likely: 5th

Melbourne are at least guaranteed a home elimination final if they win, as they’ll jump GWS and the loser of Sydney vs Hawthorn, so they just need us to lose in order to finish in the top 4. If they lose, they probably finish 8th as you’d think Geelong will easily make up the percentage difference.

8. Geelong (12 wins, 9 losses, 125.7%)

To play: Gold Coast
Highest: 7th
Lowest: 9th
Likely: 8th

Just need to beat Gold Coast and they’re in. Win by around 50+ (Which you’d think they will, minimum) and they finish 7th if Melbourne lose to GWS.

9. Port Adelaide (12 wins, 9 losses, 109.6%)

To play: Essendon
Highest: 8th
Lowest: 12th
Likely: 9th

Need to beat Essendon and then hope for a miracle now – namely, Geelong losing to the Gold Coast. If that happens, they’re in... but it won’t, surely.

1. Richmond 18/4 139%
2. West Coast 16/6 122%
3. Collingwood 15/7 122%
4. Sydney 15/7 111%
5. Melbourne 14/8 129%
6. Hawthorn 14/8 119%
7. GWS 13/1/8 116%
8. Geelong 13/9 131%

9. Port Adelaide 13/9 110%
10. North Melbourne 12/10 111%
11. Adelaide 12/10 102%
12. Essendon 11/11 102%
13. Fremantle 8/14 76%
14. Western Bulldogs 8/14 75%
15. Brisbane 5/17 89%
16. St Kilda 4/17/1 74%
17. Gold Coast 4/18 60%
18. Carlton 2/20 60%

Week 1
Richmond vs Sydney
West Coast vs Collingwood
Melbourne vs Geelong
Hawthorn vs GWS

Week 2
Sydney vs Geelong
West Coast vs Hawthorn

Week 3
Richmond vs West Coast
Collingwood vs Sydney

Week 4
Richmond vs Collingwood

Dare to dream. Smile

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Last edited by David on Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:25 pm; edited 3 times in total
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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:17 pm
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Thanks David. That’s a lot of work.

Lions averaging around 90 odd points over last 10 weeks.
They will be a real chance against the Eagles.
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:32 pm
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No worries!

One last (slightly pointless) permutation I hadn’t considered: what if we draw with Fremantle? In that case, we still finish 4th, unless GWS manage to beat Melbourne by about 45 points or more. So now you know. Razz

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