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1eyedpie 
Joined: 10 Mar 2005
Location: Melbourne
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| Cam wrote: |
Gordon 'Nuts' Coventry was suspended for 8 weeks on the eve of the finals despite never being suspended before in 17 seasons of football. Gaff like. |
I think the story goes.......Nuts had a boil on the back of his neck big as a golf ball and his opponent lanced it with his fist!
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Never disperse your focus unless absolutely necessary. Face one adversary at a time!
BARRACK HARD! |
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tbaker
Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG
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| Damien wrote: | | Cam wrote: | | tbaker wrote: | | Damien wrote: | | ...then in 2010 St Kilda got a bad bounce which would have won them the first game... |
I get downright annoyed everytime the media brings this up (and now it seems, they have convinced some Pies supporters).
Have a look at that replay again - the Lenny Hayes kick was heading straight for the points - it was nowhere near the goal. Then the ball bounced so fortuitously for St.Kilda that it changed direction towards the goal. The second bounce corrected the ball's natural course. Everyone says it was an unlucky bounce for St.Kilda but forget that it was an even luckier bounce that got it so close to goal in the first place... |
It was never going to be a goal, but it would normally bounce in such a way that it would have been gettable by Milne, who would have goaled. Instead it bounced through for a point. |
And it wasn’t my point but as usual on Nicks people get side tracked and threads end up being hijacked |
Hijacked? Ummm...I am posting in the right thread here am I not? Luck pertaining to Collingwood in Grand Finals? Both the OP and you raised the matter that I merely responded to with my two cents worth...hardly a hijacking! Perhaps we should just stick to the polls if opinions aren't able to be expressed freely...
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I find your lack of faith disturbing |
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Damien 
Me Noah & Flynn @ the G
Joined: 21 Jan 1999
Location: Croydon Vic
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Settle petal 🌸
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'Collingwood are the Bradmans of Football'
The Herald - 1930 |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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In true Nick's fashion, we have basically the one topic spread over three active threads ("Luck, superstition, curses,...", "Why ... hard time winning GFs", "Now 27 GF Losses,...").
From one of these...
| Magpietothemax wrote: | | RudeBoy wrote: | | Because we have the greatest culture and team spirit of any club, which is what gets us into Grand finals, even without necessarily the best team. |
I think this is close to the real reason. So many times we have miraculously made it to GF's without having the best team. ... |
This, of course, is the benign explanation we'd prefer to believe is true. Is there really evidence it is true?
From this thread...
| Jezza wrote: | | Cam wrote: | | The more you read, the more you see us winning epic prelims by small margins and then running out of legs in the GF to rested teams, often. ... I'd love to see what our prelim winning percentage is... |
...
Our "Preliminary Final" record is 37 games played, 21 wins, 16 losses. Therefore, our prelim winning percentage is 56.76%.
<snip> |
That doesn't really suggest that the benign explanation is correct, although it doesn't rule it out either. The "PF" conversion rate is quite close to 50%, as you might guess, so that part doesn't seem miraculous.
It's true that Jezza's list shows narrow wins in '60, '64, '80, '81, '11, but what are we to make of that? It seems that even when we (and others) are dominant, we (and others) play one "bad" final, which ends up being close (e.g. draws in '90 and '10). Judging each GF appearance one by one (as in Cam's post here, http://magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?p=1873997#1873997 ) seems more convincing, but potentially rather subjective (contrast it with e.g. 5ftwod's post: http://magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.php?p=1873189#1873189 ). |
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PyreneesPie 
PyreneesPie
Joined: 22 Aug 2014
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| Collingwood Crackerjack wrote: | | Number 35 wrote: | ^
How about instead we sing
OH The premierships are haaard earned
For the good old Collingwood |
I actually think there might be something in this, there is no need to change the words of the song, but they can be pronounced as one chooses.....thats it, until the next flag, I'm singing 'hard-earned' instead of 'cakewalk', and would invite you all to do likewise |
I agree. I cringe every time I hear/sing that line in our club song, because it's simply not true. I wonder if inwardly the players cringe too?
Reserve the original wording for the euphoria of a post premiership win. It's the only time it should be sung.
The club did change the wording once to "We're the only team we favour". How insipid is that? No it didn't continue! 
The club could run a competition for the best replacement line.  |
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King Malta 
RIP Flip
Joined: 24 Mar 2008
Location: Gettin' Wiggy
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| PyreneesPie wrote: | | Collingwood Crackerjack wrote: | | Number 35 wrote: | ^
How about instead we sing
OH The premierships are haaard earned
For the good old Collingwood |
I actually think there might be something in this, there is no need to change the words of the song, but they can be pronounced as one chooses.....thats it, until the next flag, I'm singing 'hard-earned' instead of 'cakewalk', and would invite you all to do likewise |
I agree. I cringe every time I hear/sing that line in our club song, because it's simply not true. I wonder if inwardly the players cringe too?
Reserve the original wording for the euphoria of a post premiership win. It's the only time it should be sung.
The club did change the wording once to "We're the only team we favour". How insipid is that? No it didn't continue!
The club could run a competition for the best replacement line. |
Most the club songs have some pretty, let's say, 'optimistic' lines regarding premierships, flags etc.
Can't say ours is really any worse than 'see the Bombers fly up, up, to win the premiership flag', or Geelong claiming to be the 'Greatest team of all' etc. |
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simon tonna
Joined: 24 Oct 2013
Location: carindale
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| King Malta wrote: | | PyreneesPie wrote: | | Collingwood Crackerjack wrote: | | Number 35 wrote: | ^
How about instead we sing
OH The premierships are haaard earned
For the good old Collingwood |
I actually think there might be something in this, there is no need to change the words of the song, but they can be pronounced as one chooses.....thats it, until the next flag, I'm singing 'hard-earned' instead of 'cakewalk', and would invite you all to do likewise |
I agree. I cringe every time I hear/sing that line in our club song, because it's simply not true. I wonder if inwardly the players cringe too?
Reserve the original wording for the euphoria of a post premiership win. It's the only time it should be sung.
The club did change the wording once to "We're the only team we favour". How insipid is that? No it didn't continue!
The club could run a competition for the best replacement line. |
Most the club songs have some pretty, let's say, 'optimistic' lines regarding premierships, flags etc.
Can't say ours is really any worse than 'see the Bombers fly up, up, to win the premiership flag', or Geelong claiming to be the 'Greatest team of all' etc. |
yeah all good Malta but our is plain simply arrogant and wrong.
who cares what the rest are saying, ours is cringe worthy and dare I say it
"bad karma"
"oh the premiership is bad karma for the good old collingwood"
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no second chances |
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Bucks5 
Nicky D - Parting the red sea
Joined: 23 Mar 2002
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'Oh the pre-lim is a cakewalk' would work.
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How would Siri know when to answer "Hey Siri" unless it is listening in to everything you say? |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Jezza wrote: | | Cam wrote: | | ... I'd love to see what our prelim winning percentage is... |
Excellent question, Cam.
Our "Preliminary Final" record is 37 games played, 21 wins, 16 losses. Therefore, our prelim winning percentage is 56.76%.
<snip> |
I'd like to see our record in some other final, too, but the further back from the GF, the harder it is to say what an equivalent final is in different eras, with different finals systems in place. What is equivalent to an "elimination final" or "semifinal" in the final-5 or -6 or -4 systems?
Maybe it's quite easy to get our overall record in all finals, or in all finals with no second chance.
The evidence Cam & Jezza have put up here points to the curse being very real...
Update:
afltables tells us ( https://afltables.com/afl/teams/collingwood/overall_wl.html#4 ) in finals
181P, 79W, 5D, 97L at a winning percentage of 45.03 (and scoring percentage of 94.15%).
Again, this is pretty close to 50-50 performance (including the scoring percentage being very close to an even 100%). Take out the GFs and it's even closer: 47.81%. No evidence of overperforming in non-GF finals.
The curse seems real & its explanation not benign... |
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Cam
Nick's BB Member #166
Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale
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Collingwood is blessed not cursed. Seriously, invoking the supernatural only allows you to explain away human fragility. But if it makes you feel better, sure go ahead. But you may as well give up on winning premierships, ever. So-called football gods are fickle and change their minds each year. Apparently.
The Eagles had a mountain more inside 50s after quarter time, statistics will show you that that generally leads to more scoring. Everything about the season, the series of 3 games we played against them, shows that yes, we were close, but they were better.
How about saying we overachieved to get into the GF by slaying the season's giant [are they cursed now?] [note: they were also beaten by the Eagles] and nearly pulled off another improbable victory against the odds? No team grew like we did during the year, not even the media darlings from Mt Hotham, but some teams were already good by round 8. The Eagles were one of them.
There is nothing wrong with admitting we were not quite good enough [Fonzi: "Wrrrrrrrrrr"] . It's ok, world won't end, you don't *need* an excuse that blames a factor outside our or anybody on earth's control. Thankfully, our team, and our coach, do not think like that, and will push to exceed all other teams next year. What matters is that we analyse how to improve, and do it. We will do 2019 better than we did 2018.
Our period of excellence is coming, enjoy the ride and call the Ghostbusters if you are still worried about ghouls and ghosts changing the outcomes of games [or if you are seeing things running through your head].
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Get back on top. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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I assume most people here are not seriously considering supernatural causes. (Is that a wrong assumption? I hope Nicksters speak up if they do mean that. it's true that this thread's title mentions "luck, superstition,...", but that title was made up by you, Cam, not by hypothetical believers in supernatural causes. Some Nicksters, though, have expressed belief in an AFL conspiracy.)
It's not what happened in 2018; it's the club's whole history. (The stats on the history since '58 are probably even worse, but over all history it's already bad enough.) The question is: what are the causes of this underperformance. It could be that there's a different cause each time. That seems unlikely, too. If there are random causes in effect at different times, won't some of them act in the club's favour?
The "benign explanation" --- overperformance pre-GF, leaving the team exposed in the GF --- isn't supported at all by the facts, as far as I can see. |
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Cam
Nick's BB Member #166
Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale
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A curse is a supernatural cause K, it has no root in cause and effect.
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Get back on top. |
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CarringbushCigar 
Joined: 15 Nov 2007
Location: wherever I lay my beanie
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| K wrote: | I assume most people here are not seriously considering supernatural causes. (Is that a wrong assumption? I hope Nicksters speak up if they do mean that. it's true that this thread's title mentions "luck, superstition,...", but that title was made up by you, Cam, not by hypothetical believers in supernatural causes. Some Nicksters, though, have expressed belief in an AFL conspiracy.)
It's not what happened in 2018; it's the club's whole history. (The stats on the history since '58 are probably even worse, but over all history it's already bad enough.) The question is: what are the causes of this underperformance. It could be that there's a different cause each time. That seems unlikely, too. If there are random causes in effect at different times, won't some of them act in the club's favour?
The "benign explanation" --- overperformance pre-GF, leaving the team exposed in the GF --- isn't supported at all by the facts, as far as I can see. |
I speak as a quantitative statistician.
We are cursed - yes supernaturally.
The club has sought spiritual assistance in the past.
We tried to literally bury the colliwobbles.
It is evident in our history.
60 years of it. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| CarringbushCigar wrote: | ...
I speak as a quantitative statistician.
We are cursed - yes supernaturally.
...
It is evident in our history.
60 years of it. |
What would a non-quantitative statistician be? A retired statistician?
It's evident in the 126 years of our history, so presumably the numbers for just the last 60 years look even worse, without the glorious first half of history to hide among. It's really quite shocking when you look more closely at it. |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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| It is what it is. Move on. |
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