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Luck, superstition, curses and such

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What'sinaname Libra



Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free

PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:33 pm
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Trolled by WWE wrestlers.

Our choking efforts reaches an international audience.

Well, Ed did want us to be bigger than Man U...and that meant getting international recognition. Tick.

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:21 pm
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Jezza wrote:
I can't get over how many sizeable leads we've relinquished over the years in Grand Finals.

1970 = Led by 44 points (Q3)
2018 = Led by 29 points (Q1)
1977 = Led by 28 points (Q4)**
1979 = Led by 28 points (Q2)
2010 = Led by 24 points (Q3)**
1981 = Led by 21 points (Q3)
2011 = Led by 18 points (Q2)

** = Draw

It makes for sobering reading Sad

Where do these place in the list of biggest GF leads relinquished by any club? Anyone know?
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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:26 pm
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How do you usually introduce yourself?
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:22 pm
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K wrote:
CarringbushCigar wrote:
...
It is evident in our history.
60 years of it.
...
It's evident in the 126 years of our history, so presumably the numbers for just the last 60 years look even worse, without the glorious first half of history to hide among. It's really quite shocking when you look more closely at it.

If you take out the period 1970-1981 (maybe the curse applies only to these dozen years), our GF winning percentage of course improves a bit --- from 36.36% to 40.79%. Still not great...

There are many good records the club holds, though. Did you know, for example, that we are the only team that has an undefeated record (albeit with one draw) against University?
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:24 pm
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Jezza wrote:
I can't get over how many sizeable leads we've relinquished over the years in Grand Finals.

1970 = Led by 44 points (Q3)
2018 = Led by 29 points (Q1)
1977 = Led by 28 points (Q4)**
1979 = Led by 28 points (Q2)
2010 = Led by 24 points (Q3)**
1981 = Led by 21 points (Q3)
2011 = Led by 18 points (Q2)

** = Draw

It makes for sobering reading Sad

Also:

1939 = Led by 18 points (Q1)
1937 = Led by 18 points (Q1)

[Q1 here means at quarter time. Is that what it means in the above list? If so, it's possible the leads squandered have been even larger partway through a quarter.]


Last edited by K on Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Cam Capricorn

Nick's BB Member #166


Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale

PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:46 pm
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Maybe though, every team could be looked at and maybe many teams have done similiar things.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:57 pm
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Yeah, that's why I asked above where those leads relinquished sit in the list of those from any club... I'm not too hopeful on that front, though. The Adelaide years and around them are some GFs that come to mind.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:29 pm
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Sizeable GF leads relinquished by non-Coll. teams:

2012 = Haw. led by 19 points (Q1)
1998 = North led by 24 points (Q2) -- kicking 2.11 in Q2 & 0.7 in Q4.
1996 = Syd. led by 18 points (Q1)
1984 = Haw. led by 21 points (Q1), 25 points (Q2), 23 points (Q3)


(Q1) = margin at quarter time.

This is a tiny list (but looks only at margins at the breaks). Are there any other examples?
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:31 pm
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10+1 Possible Causes of the GF Curse:

[1] There is no curse; the history of GF results is just due to random chance.

[2] There is no curse --- except for the years 1970-1981 (perhaps due to 1970's GF).

[3] There is no curse; the club has "played above itself" in preliminary and other finals, leaving itself outmatched in the GF.

[4] There is a curse, and it's due to opposition supporters, whose blind hatred affects the team.

[5] There is a curse, and it's due to opposition supporters, from whose ranks umpires mostly come; critical GF umpiring decisions therefore invariably go against the team.

[6] There is a curse, and it's due to the Magpie Army, whose expectations place too much pressure on the team.

[7] There is a curse, and it's due to the Magpie Army, who make it impossible for the team not to be distracted in GF week.

[8] There is a curse, and it's due to the Magpie Army, who are dangerously sentimental --- sometimes to the point of wearing failure as a badge of honour --- and put players, coaches, and administrators on a pedestal, preventing wise decisions from being made.

[9] There is a curse, and it's due to the AFL conspiring against the club, for example by ensuring biased GF umpiring.

[10] There is a curse, and its cause is supernatural.

[11] There is a curse, whose cause is not covered above.
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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:35 pm
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How specifically does [b]10+1 cause of the GF Curse[b] [b][1][b] There is no curse; the history of GF results is due to random chance?
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CarringbushCigar Taurus



Joined: 15 Nov 2007
Location: wherever I lay my beanie

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:18 pm
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10 - little doubt

Still someone must have struck it on us for a reason.
The why is more important to the who
Only when we know why can we as mere mortals address it

Without knowng why, we would need similar powers as the entity who imposed it, in order to remove it.

Only then can we confidently move forward on equal footing

You know it makes sense
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:29 pm
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CarringbushCigar wrote:
10 - little doubt
...
You know it makes sense

You may be on to something, CC, but some might need a little more convincing.
Maybe the best way is to show 1-9 are wrong.
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:40 pm
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Jezza wrote:
Cam wrote:
... I'd love to see what our prelim winning percentage is...

Excellent question, Cam. Our "Preliminary Final" record is 37 games played, 21 wins, 16 losses. Therefore, our prelim winning percentage is 56.76%. <snip>

Jezza, how did you compile this list (and others)? Meaning: Where do you find this sort of info? e.g. I couldn't find info on largest margins squandered --- only the scores at the quarterly breaks.
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Jezza Taurus

2023 PREMIERS!


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:24 pm
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In relation to the preliminary final stats, I relied upon the "AFL Tables" website.

On the margins squandered stats, I watched the replays of the old Grand Finals on YouTube, so it was manually done.

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masoncox 

masoncox


Joined: 31 Aug 2015


PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:35 am
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might be worth it to write what my mate Jack Spain thought about us and the GF.


Hi my Magpie friends,

Just wondered how you've been holding up after the GF loss. I was so proud of what the boys and Bucks (yes especially Bucks) did to get there and all but win the thing. It has restored my faith in the club and I am glad to be proven wrong. Still hard to swallow our 27th GF loss though. Emoji

Next year the comp better watch out, because Dayne Beams is going to want to prove a lot to a stack of people. He might just allow us the luxury of sticking Pendles (who was showing all his wear and tear this finals series) into the forward line. Imagine if Pendles added 2-3 goals a game for us sitting in the forward pocket? And Cox can only get better. Great days ahead if we don't get ahead of ourselves.

Nice to see the AFL experiments on the Suns and GWS have come crashing down on them. The Suns are certainties to win zero games next year and the GWS fire sale means they have wasted all those high draft pick concessions the AFL gave them. Both these clubs should be wound up immediately.

Just one dampener during the trade period - well three actually:

1. Hawthorn - how does the AFL allow them to keep adding players to their roster like a salary cap doesn't exist. Actually the answer to that one is obvious. In the past 50 years the Hawks have always got a leg up.

2. North Melbourne - for a poverty stricken club they seem to have no trouble offering huge contracts to other teams' players. Thank God De Goey gave them the middle finger. But geez, the AFL must be bankrolling them for sure.

3. St Blunder - ditto North! Where is the money coming from when they are $20 million in the red and will lose more money from 2018?

Honestly, there are too many teams in Melbourne and we should get back to a 12 team National competition where talent is maximised.

Enjoy the offseason because we could be in for a lot of excitment in 2019. Can't wait!

Cheers, Jack.
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