Trade period summary

[swoop42]

Beams finished 2nd in Brisbane's B&F (1 vote behind Zorko) and was Brisbane's leading Brownlow vote receiver and finished 8th overall.

His trade cost is effectively our 2019 1st round selection as we'll leave the draft with the same two players we intended to take.

Not sure how anyone can believe we've overpaid and while the trade could prove to be a bust if his body fails him you can say they same thing now about using pick 6 on Scharenberg so risks are ever present whatever the age.

In my opinion wherever the bid for Quaynor comes now is inconsequential to how you rate the Beams trade or whether you preferred to retain pick 18 and for a number of reasons.

1. The landscape has changed with us parting with pick 18 and gaining further points so clubs may not be so inclined to make a tactical bid in the first round now because we've insulated ourselves against it and by our actions they know we will match it. I accept I may be wrong on this of course but with the whole song and dance routine now surrounding the first round of the draft on Foxtel will a club with pick 15 or 17 really waste the time focusing on any player they can't get if they see his value between 15 to 25?

If a bid comes don't be surprised if it's Brisbane at 18.

2. If the Beams trade hadn't eventuated then their is every chance we would have chosen to do what Sydney did and exchanged pick 18 for multiple selections that was worth more points. This is an entirely plausible scenario because once Moore and Langdon re-signed we seemingly had little capacity outside the trading of future picks to gain points for this years draft. The picks we entered trade week with only equated to 453pts which wasn't nearly enough to match a bid for Quaynor prior to pick 18 and would have pushed back our 2019 1st round selection to the 2nd round. Taking Kelly would have seen that 2nd round pick wiped out also should a bid for him come in the range anticipated.

3. Finally if you are happy to have Beams back at the club then pick 18 was always going to be involved. More importantly though if you believe like I do that the club values Quaynor as being worthy of pick 18 then it would have been a disaster to not use the bidding system to our advantage and obtain him with lesser selections in the draft.

Personally I think we've been very fortunate that the availability of Quaynor and Kelly has coincided with a season we've returned to September with a bullet and giving up pick 18 as part of the deal for Beams is in no way comparable to using pick 6 on Stephenson the previous season.

We've maximised the value of pick 18 in my opinion and will leave this trade/draft period with not only the player we were prepared to use it on we don't get Beams without it.

I'm stoked.

[MatthewBoydFanClub]

I'm going to be nervous till after the national draft when we have selected Quaynor and Will Kelly with the points accumulated from our draft picks. At that point I will say we have had a good trade period and I won't even feel bad that we have given up a future round one draft pick.

[K]

[slangman]

Apart from Stephenson, our drafting and recruiting of 18yo was done 2-4 years ago.

Maxwell has been quoted as saying that he doesn’t think that MM would have recruited Jolly or Ball if not for the 2 year coaching deadline.

If we think that we’re in the premiership window, then “going to the draft” is not the correct option.

[HAL]

Who or what is Stephenson our drafting and recruiting of 18yo was done 2-4 years ago?

[K]

[Brown26]

K - is pick 18 this year and pick 13 next year worth pick 7? I know the points add up, but no team would trade pick 13 and 18 for pick 7 if they were planning to use them on a player. Pick 7 is much more likely to be a good player than picks 13 and 18, in fact much more likely to be a gun, so I doubt, in the real world, it would work like that.

I've written a few posts about this - if we get Quaynor and Kelly (which we will) we would have had to use pick 18 anyway - no one was going to trade much up this draft for next years future pick in reality, so I don't think that was an option - so we get Beams for next years first round pick and whatever down grade we have to make to our second round pick.

That scenario means it doesn't matter WHERE we finish next year as much as it matters WHERE Quaynor and Kelly are bid on. If they are late bids and we can cover them without going into deficit, then it's Beams straight swap for next years first round pick. If we finish 8th, that's pick 13. If we finish first, that's pick 18. Beams for pick 18 seems a steal!

If we have to go into deficit next year, it's Beams for pick (13, 18, whatever) and a downgrade of pick 39 to (whatever) - worst case ish scenario (Quaynor 14 and Kelly 24) that would make pick 39 about pick 55 ish. So Beams would cost a first round pick (whatever that is) and a trade of 2nd round to 3rd round picks. Still doesn't sound that bad really.

Of course, if we win the premiership, the cost is next years pick 18 and whatever and no one will care at all

- Ben

[K]

Ben: I don't know; I was just re-doing the whole net flow of points to Bris. just to see how this changed.

But... this hypothetical net points stuff is apparently not so unrealistic. My guess is that clubs have historically mostly given up top-10 picks for ready-made players (possibly with additional exchanges of picks), rather than just draft picks. There may be some examples where it (purely picks) has occurred, though. (Did St. K. do this one year in the 90s?)

The whole points values the AFL came up with is about as good as they could have done with the info. they had. And you'll see enthusiasts who blog claiming their models for this sort of thing show that multiple picks have historically actually been worth more. (The HPN guys claim pick 1 is about equal in value to picks 10 & 12 (or 8 & 15, or ...).)


It doesn't actually matter now where we do finish next year. What really mattered before we gave picks up was where other clubs predicted we will finish. If they were convinced we'd finish mid-ladder, then they'd believe our 1st-rounder was worth more.

[Brown26]

your last sentence is interesting K - anythings worth is in the eye of the buyer really isn't it. My point was just that the player you get with pick 7 is likely going to be better than both players taken at picks 13 and 18, so you would be silly to trade for that. similarly, I think Carlton would laugh at the suggestion for pick 1 for picks 10 and 12, for the same reason. Again, that comes down to how much faith you have in your recruitment guys and how deep the draft is.

It also depends on your needs a little bit - we currently need one future superstar if we go to the draft, so we would keep pick 1 for sure. Carlton on the other hand need a whole lot of young talent, so they may be more likely to trade pick 1 for say picks 3 and 6 (especially in this draft, they'd be sensible to do that IMO.)

Regardless, this will be an interesting discussion this time next year!

- Ben

[Brown26]

OK - to test my theory, (and cause I'm waiting for the kids to get up!) here are the last few players selected at picks 13, 7 and 18 - and it's interesting reading! Certainly not what I expected. I think most years are pretty even (the AFL may have got something right - who knew!) and pick 7 is certainly not more likely to be a star than pick 13 or 18 for that matter. It makes for interesting reading at least, so does looking down the list of what might have been - in 2009 Melbourne picked Tengrove and Scully Dustin Martin at 3 and Ben Cunnington at 5 - just one example. East in hind sight isn't it!

- Ben

2005 pick 18 = Max Bailey pick 13 = Shannon Hurn pick 7 = Patrick Ryder
2006 pick 18 = Leroy Jetta pick 13 = Jack Rievoldt pick 7 = Joel Selwood
2007 pick 18 = Alex Rance pick 13 = Brad Ebert pick 7 = Rhys Palmer
2008 pick 18 = Luke Shuey pick 13 = Tom Lynch pick 7 = Daniel Rich
2009 pick 18 = Luke Tapscott pick 13 = Daniel Talia pick 7 = Brad Sheppard
2010 pick 18 = Matthew Watson pick 13 = Seb Tape pick 7 = Josh Caddy
2011 pick 18 = Bradley McKenzie pick 13 = Taylor Adams pick 7 = Nick Haynes
2012 pick 18 = Brodie Grundy pick 13 = Jesse Lonerang pick 7 = Ollie Wines
2013 pick 18 = Luke Dunstan pick 13 = Patrick Cripps pick 7 = James Aish
2014 pick 18 = Isaac Heeney pick 13 = Lachy Willer pick 7 = Paul Ahern
2015 pick 18 = Jade Grisham pick 13 = Matt Kennedy pick 7 = Jacob Hopper

[K]

Here's an example of a real recent trade that was purely picks and included pick 10:

In 2016, St. Kilda gave Hawthorn picks 10 and 68 (2016), in return receiving picks 23 and 36 (2016) and a future 1st-rounder (2017).

Can someone please look up who all those picks were used on? It may be still too early to judge the quality of those players, though.

[Albert Parker]

Some handy pick 18's in the past couple of drafts too.

2017 Jack Higgins
2016 Sam Powell-Pepper

I think also that draft capability has generally improved.

Another thing to consider is that in some drafts, the best talent was already taken by the expansion clubs
Giants and Suns had a bunch of the absolute best pre-draft talent
So guys like Treloar, Cameron, Shiel, O'Meara, Jack Martin, Stephen May, Rory Thompson, Jesse Hogan

[K]

[Piethagoras' Theorem]

Happy with the players, I'll let you people get excited about points and picks!

[K]

^ You'll be less happy if a pick we gave up lands a Pavlich. (But we wouldn't let that happen, would we?)