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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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| Post subject: National and Rookie Drafts |  |
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Indicative Draft Order
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-30/indicative-draft-order-post-grand-final-edition
When are the 2018 NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Drafts?
Friday, 16 November 2pm: NAB AFL Trade Period closes (for exchange of selections only).
Thursday, 22 November 7pm – 9.30pm: NAB AFL Draft (Round One).
Friday, 23 November 10am – 1.30pm: NAB AFL Draft (Round Two onwards to conclusion).
Friday, 23 November 5pm: NAB AFL Pre-Season Draft and NAB AFL Rookie Draft.
Live trading of draft picks this year (5 minutes on the clock for each pick I believe).
Our NGA and FS Eligible Players
Full 2018 NGA List:
Atuniasa Bosenavulagi
Ubil Chol
Piers Hikaru McDermott
Kang Nyoak
Isaac Quaynor
Bailey Wraith
http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2018-06-28/pies-among-fatherson-and-academy-prospects
https://twitter.com/CalTwomey/status/1018720231953317889
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/23444718/afl-draft-chris-doerre-knightmare-father-son-academy-analysis
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/will-kelly-son-of-former-pie-craig-firming-as-high-draft-pick-as-collingwood-waits-on-darcy-moore/news-story/6b1f866fd2bff651cfe1ca802044f4b7
On the radar:
Isaac Quaynor (NGA)
Will Kelly (FS)
Atu Bosenavulagi (NGA)
Bailey Wraith (NGA)
Mock Draft
Mock draft using http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-14/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-october and post-trade period indicative draft order.
Cal has our NGS/FS prospects rated a bit more highly than others I’ve seen so this probably provides a worst-case scenario for us regarding use of points.
I think I have the moving of live picks during the bidding process correct, but feel free to double-check.
1. CAR Sam Walsh
2. GCS Jack Lukosius
3. GCS Izak Rankine
4. STK Max King
5. PTA Bailey Smith
6. GCS Ben King
7. WBD Connor Rozee
8. ADE Bid for Nick Blakey matched by SYD. 1551 less 20% = 1241. Pick 26 (729) and 33 (563) cover that with 51 points remaining so 26 moved to end of draft order and 33 moves to 69.
9. [8] ADE Jye Caldwell
10. [9] GWS Jordan Clark
11. [10] PTA Jackson Hately
12. GWS Bid for Tarryn Thomas matched by NM. 1268 less 20% = 1015. Picks 42 [still 42] (395), 47 [still 47] (316), 48 [still 48] (302) and 49 [still 49] (287) cover that with 285 points remaining so 42, 47 and 48 moved to end of draft order and 49 moves to 50.
13. [11] GWS Zak Butters
14. GEE Bid for Isaac Quaynor matched by COL. 1161 less 20% = 929. Picks 41 [now 42] (395), 44 [still 44] (362), 51 [now 49] (287), cover that with 115 points remaining. Picks 41 and 44 moved to end of draft order and 51 moved to 63.
15. [12] GEE Riley Collier-Dawkins
16. [13] ADE Curtis Taylor
17. [14] FRE Ian Hill
18. [15] PTA Liam Stocker
19. ADE Bid for Rhylee West matched by WBD. 948 - 197 = 751. Picks 27 [now 29] (653) and 32 [now 34] (542) cover that with 444 points remaining so pick 27 moved to end of draft and pick 32 moves to 40.
20. [16] ADE Chayce Jones
21. [17] RIC Jez McLennan
22. [18] BRI Luke Valente
23. [19] GWS Sam Stuart
24. WCE Bid for Will Kelly matched by COL. 785 -197 = 588 points less pick 57 [now 55] (207) and 63 (115 points) leaving 266 points deficit.
25. [20] WCE Connor McFadyen
26. [21] ADE Edward McHenry
27. [22] WCE Xavier Duursma
28. MEL Bid for Bailey Scott matched by NM. 677 – 197 = 480. Remaining picks 50 [now 47?] (316), 55 [now 52?](246) and 58 [now 55?] (207) easily cover that.
29. [23] MEL Ely Smith
30. [24] GCS Xavier O’Halloran
31. [25] GWS
[26] SYD Used on Nick Blakey.
32. [27] WBD
33. [28] MEL
34. [29] GCS
35. [30] BRI
36. [31] FRE
37. [32] WBD
[33] SYD Used on Nick Blakey. Balance of 51 points so moves to 69.
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Last edited by MightyMagpie on Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:28 am; edited 2 times in total |
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masoncox
masoncox
Joined: 31 Aug 2015
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So MM are we going to be about 700 points in the red next year?
If the draft goes along the lines you stated? |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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| masoncox wrote: | So MM are we going to be about 700 points in the red next year?
If the draft goes along the lines you stated? |
Yes, “if”.
Cal has Quaynor and Kelly higher than others.
Bosevulagi has been rising and is not included in the above so that may add some points to the deficit as well.
End of the day, I think it is safe to say we will effectively have no high round draft picks in 2019. That may be another reason for keeping Mihocek, Appleby and Lynch on the Cat A Rookie list as we may just promote them to fill our minimum 3 selections in 2019. Not sure how that interacts with new rule about not stockpiling and only taking “live” draft picks to the draft though as rookie elevations are now nominated pre-draft.
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All We Can Be |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Well, the Gleeson Age article claimed "Clubs are able to go into deficit in points the following year up to a maximum of 1723 points," so even if Q&K attract such early interest there's some wiggle room... But I'm assuming we actually have at least 1723 points next year. Is that a reasonable assumption? I assume you can only be in deficit for one year. |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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I’m hopeful because Quaynor plays such a specialised role as a small run and carry H B ( albeit very well ) this might encourage other clubs to by pass him early in the draft. His name comes into play amongst of mix of other players who all have more positional stings to their bow. This doesn’t make them better players than Quaynor, just more versatile.
Quaynor is also on the shorter side ( both in height and the way he plays ) amongst those other players, so that will hardly be looked at as a plus.
I find the Quaynor conundrum as to where he sits in the scheme of things, very hard to get a read on. |
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On the March
Joined: 14 Feb 2004
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| At this stage we are unlikely to have those 1723 points - subject to further trades. |
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bally12 
Joined: 30 Sep 2010
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| It's pretty clear we will bid on Quaynor and Kelly. As rival clubs know this, what stops then from bidding on them early, so that they can force us to pay maximum points? |
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MatthewBoydFanClub
Joined: 12 Feb 2007
Location: Elwood
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| Pies2016 wrote: | I’m hopeful because Quaynor plays such a specialised role as a small run and carry H B ( albeit very well ) this might encourage other clubs to by pass him early in the draft. His name comes into play amongst of mix of other players who all have more positional stings to their bow. This doesn’t make them better players than Quaynor, just more versatile.
Quaynor is also on the shorter side ( both in height and the way he plays ) amongst those other players, so that will hardly be looked at as a plus.
I find the Quaynor conundrum as to where he sits in the scheme of things, very hard to get a read on. |
He's a solidly built kid who could play senior football from day 1, which takes his value up. This is such a good draft for KPP's I'm hoping most clubs bypass him in the first round. Unfortunately Geelong don't need a KPP but they do need running half backs like Quaynor so it wouldn't surprise me for them to call his name. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| bally12 wrote: | | It's pretty clear we will bid on Quaynor and Kelly. As rival clubs know this, what stops then from bidding on them early, so that they can force us to pay maximum points? |
They won't take that risk on behalf of the other 16 clubs. They have to be comfortable with taking the player if our club declines. |
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MatthewBoydFanClub
Joined: 12 Feb 2007
Location: Elwood
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| bally12 wrote: | | It's pretty clear we will bid on Quaynor and Kelly. As rival clubs know this, what stops then from bidding on them early, so that they can force us to pay maximum points? |
The various list managers I think play it down the line and only bid for players they feel will add to their list. Darcy Moore was a case in point - the Western Bulldogs really wanted his services. |
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HAL
Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.
Joined: 17 Mar 2003
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| K wrote: | [quote="bally12"]It's pretty clear we will bid on Quaynor and Kelly. As rival clubs know this, what stops then from bidding on them early, so that they can force us to pay maximum points?[/quote]
They won't take that risk on behalf of the other 16 clubs. They have to be comfortable with taking the player if our club declines. |
Where did they get them? |
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masoncox
masoncox
Joined: 31 Aug 2015
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jatsad
Joined: 29 May 2010
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| bally12 wrote: | | It's pretty clear we will bid on Quaynor and Kelly. As rival clubs know this, what stops then from bidding on them early, so that they can force us to pay maximum points? |
Because they run the risk of us passing then they need to take that player.
That would not be the reason they would bid on a player.
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Jatsad - That is all |
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4everpies
Joined: 13 Aug 2008
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MM in your example of Isaac Quaynor at pick 14, if (after the 20% disc) we have to pay 929 points & we have 1044 points we won't be in deficit of 117 points, will we?
Won't we have 115 points left over to put towards Kelly? |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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| 4everpies wrote: | MM in your example of Isaac Quaynor at pick 14, if (after the 20% disc) we have to pay 929 points & we have 1044 points we won't be in deficit of 117 points, will we?
Won't we have 115 points left over to put towards Kelly? |
Thank you. Brain fart on my part. I think I have corrected it now.
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All We Can Be |
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