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Wokko 
Come and take it.
Joined: 04 Oct 2005
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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I'm beyond caring who wins, I just want a government that works with an agenda that looks past getting re-elected.
Just fkn do something
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Culprit 
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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| Yep a poll of 1200 people spells doom for the ALP. |
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regan is true fullback
Joined: 27 Dec 2002
Location: Granville. nsw
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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I said a long time ago this election was not a lay down misere (for all you old 500 players).
Is there a danger that Morrison et all have (or will) over-egged this?
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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I only ever take advice on polls from Kevin Bonham. Long story short: the apparent move towards the government in this poll could be significant, but Fairfax/Ipsos is notoriously variable, and we'll probably need another Newspoll to confirm that this is more than an outlier result.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/02/poll-roundup-mixed-start-to-year-for.html
| Quote: | The 51-49 to Labor Ipsos released tonight deserves some immediate comment. The main things to know about Ipsos are (i) that the pollster is volatile compared to the other significant pollsters, (ii) that the pollster's primary votes have a skew towards the Greens and, to a lesser degree, generic Others. Ipsos' 2PPs don't skew to one side or the other, but they are bouncy.
Also, the Coalition was a bit lucky to get 49% off this set of primaries (Coalition 38 Labor 33 Green 13) - this would normally come out to 48.4 by last-election preferences, and I aggregated it at 48.6. As a result my aggregate has so far dropped seven tenths of a point to 53.0 by last-election preferences, or 52.4 with the One Nation adjustment. However, it's possible that the events of the last week have made a big difference and my aggregate is being conservative. Or it's possible that Ipsos is being volatile again. When there is a single poll that differs from the rest and there is an obvious event that may have caused it, an aggregate cannot say whether the poll is right or not - and in the case of Ipsos it's much more difficult to infer anything than it would be if we saw a three-point jump in Newspoll.
Looking at the record of Ipsos so far this term, there have been seven cases prior to this one of it being a point or more away from my aggregate even after including it. In two of these Ipsos ran ahead of changes in other polls generally, while in four of these the movement implied by Ipsos never showed up in other polling, suggesting that Ipsos was simply being bouncy. The cases where Ipsos was predictive include two of the three cases it stuck out on the Coalition's side (narrowings in April and September 2018) but no case where it stuck out on Labor's side. Make of that what you will. The seventh case was inconclusive: an apparent massive outlier in Labor's favour just before Prime Minister Turnbull was removed. (I suspect it was partly right and partly overreacting in that case.)
The Ipsos result was also somewhat contradicted by a Queensland-only federal Galaxy which had very strong numbers for Labor (52-48, a 6.1% improvement on the 2016 election, though Labor does have a history of underperforming in Queensland compared to lead-up polling.) |
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| watt price tully wrote: | I said a long time ago this election was not a lay down misere (for all you old 500 players).
Is there a danger that Morrison et all have (or will) over-egged this? |
I used to play 500 with my parents back in the day and used to call Misere a bit. My dad really hated it, he thought it was cheating and cracked the sads, particularly cos he never beat me when I called it, open or otherwise. 
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Shorten is pathetic.. the longer he gets to show it, the firmer a Lib win gets.
I think I might have a little nibble on the coalition @ $3.50
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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^ I'm no fan of Shorten, but he's a statesman in comparison with try-hard Morrison. If the Libs get another term with him in charge, then Australians are officially hopeless and we can well and truly give up on any tolerable future for the country.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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regan is true fullback
Joined: 27 Dec 2002
Location: Granville. nsw
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| Quote: | | I think I might have a little nibble on the coalition @ $3.50 |
Aaaand just when the Liberal fightback is in full swing like Monty's tanks to Alamain....
THIS happens:
| Quote: | Its an odd arrangement: Labor senators grill Mathias Cormann over travel bookings Guardian 20.2.19
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Not quite the bottle of Grange that sank Barry O'Farrell, not quite the family escort service that got the Libs in trouble in the '80s, but after a million dead fish, and a couple of politically deceased PMs, they don't need this... |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| David wrote: | | ^ I'm no fan of Shorten, but he's a statesman in comparison with try-hard Morrison. If the Libs get another term with him in charge, then Australians are officially hopeless and we can well and truly give up on any tolerable future for the country. |
I appreciate, of course, that telling people on a footy fan site not to "pick a side" is a hopelessly lost cause before I say it. Nevertheless, I think it is a good idea to be alive to the possibility that the "choices" might both be a form of parasitic infection. There isn't much of a choice presented between them on anything that really matters. The art of politics in a two-party liberal democracy is to make it look like there are important divisions between the parties, so that voters want to "take a stand". Nothing much will change, though, whichever party wins. This doesn't mean that one should give up trying to change things - it just means that one should give up expecting that the bunches of people who collectively got us to this point will suddenly develop a significant interest in getting us to a different point.
For avoidance of doubt, one can happily adopt that position and still hate Morrison.  |
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Culprit
Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne
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People must be confused with all the US Politics. You vote for a Party in Australia and the party elect the leader. As far as preferred PM and even Premier goes in Australia. Those in power always lead no matter what the poll.
State by State who will win in our two party preferred system? I go with ALP winning VIC, NSW & SA. TAS is 50/50 and the LNP win WA and QLD.
I prefer Morgan as far as polls go, they go into a bit more depth. https://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll
52.5 ALP - 47.5 LNP
Just when the LNP get a major boost we get the latest fiasco with Helloworld, Paladin contract, QLD Cancer Council Queensland has withdrawn its claim that Labors franking credits policy could lead to fewer donations. Michaelia Cash's evidence doesn't pass the pub test and throw in the Royal Commission into Banks where the LNP won't touch the recommendations.
If Pre-polling is going to be even bigger as expected, that normally means people have made their mind up and switch off to all the noise. The election is a long way off and the LNP believe the longer it takes the more chance they have to win. |
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