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Mayday, May Day or D-Day for May: Brexit Update

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:54 pm
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David wrote:
Wokko wrote:
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1072621410445656064

Word is that the 48 letters have been received and a No confidence vote is incoming. Theresa May is a goner (unless they're just rumours).


It should be noted though that, if they have reached (or soon do) the requisite threshold of 48 letters to trigger a no-confidence motion, that's still only 15% of party MPs. Of course it goes without saying that there will be MPs (particularly high-ranking ones) who haven't written letters but will vote against her on the day, but it's not necessarily a foregone conclusion that they'll get the further 113 votes needed to actually win the motion – and if they don't, then May gets to stay in charge for another year without challenge. As Peter Dutton learnt recently, momentum isn't always enough.

Yes, being able to count beyond one's fingers and toes is typically a prerequisite for doing the leadership numbers in any party. Being a Clutzi Duttzi and counting "1, 2 3, I don't know but a lot" may not be enough.
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Jezza Taurus

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Joined: 06 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:55 pm
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pietillidie wrote:
It's happening this evening, UK time. But the mustering up of these 48 votes does not mean she's a goner; it could even lead to her being locked in more securely, especially given how fractured the party is.

Are you familiar with the assortment of 'proper' Brexiteers? Do you know what their Brexit transition plans and platforms of governance entail? You would want the best manager in the country to implement the most complex and poorly comprehended geopolitical endeavour in decades. The agreement is the easy part of Brexit.

By god David Cameron and the Austerity Vampire have a lot to answer for.

^ Cameron only held a referendum on the issue because he feared a split in his party.

He just didn't anticipate that a majority of the country would vote in favour of leaving the EU in 2016.

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:10 pm
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A majority of the country didn't vote in favour of the EU. Strictly speaking, according to the Electoral Commission's figures, about a third of the voting age population (or, if you prefer, about 25% of the total population) voted to leave. The majority you have in mind is the majority of people registered to vote who turned up to vote and managed to cast a valid vote.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:19 pm
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Pies4shaw wrote:
A majority of the country didn't vote in favour of the EU. Strictly speaking, according to the Electoral Commission's figures, about a third of the voting age population (or, if you prefer, about 25% of the total population) voted to leave. The majority you have in mind is the majority of people registered to vote who turned up to vote and managed to cast a valid vote.


Which is how a democracy tends to work.

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Pies4shaw Leo

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Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:50 pm
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It raises a serious question, though, Stui. How many of the elderly, xenophobic cactii who voted in favour of Brexit will live (or even are still alive as we speak) to suffer the consequences - and how many young people who had no say will have the consequences visited upon them?

The Kinks Are The Village Green Preservation Society is one of the all-time great albums and it will be nice to see the whole of the United Kingdom living it (from this distance) - but I don’t think Dave and Ray thought of it as a political blueprint for their childrens’ futures.
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:09 am
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Jezza wrote:
pietillidie wrote:
It's happening this evening, UK time. But the mustering up of these 48 votes does not mean she's a goner; it could even lead to her being locked in more securely, especially given how fractured the party is.

Are you familiar with the assortment of 'proper' Brexiteers? Do you know what their Brexit transition plans and platforms of governance entail? You would want the best manager in the country to implement the most complex and poorly comprehended geopolitical endeavour in decades. The agreement is the easy part of Brexit.

By god David Cameron and the Austerity Vampire have a lot to answer for.

^ Cameron only held a referendum on the issue because he feared a split in his party.

He just didn't anticipate that a majority of the country would vote in favour of leaving the EU in 2016.

I think you mean he feared dealing with problems in his party and its electorates because it required getting his hands dirty, rather than merely receiving winks and nods from Old Etonians. Not anticipating the chaos you cause by being reckless and cowardly doesn't make you less reckless or cowardly; rather, it makes you reckless, cowardly and either stupid or callous.

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:51 am
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stui magpie wrote:
Pies4shaw wrote:
A majority of the country didn't vote in favour of the EU. Strictly speaking, according to the Electoral Commission's figures, about a third of the voting age population (or, if you prefer, about 25% of the total population) voted to leave. The majority you have in mind is the majority of people registered to vote who turned up to vote and managed to cast a valid vote.


Which is how a democracy tends to work.

Old people wrecking the joint before they die out is one thing, although that problem goes beyond even Brexit.

The immediate problem with the 'will of the people' soundbite is that May was delivering 'Brexit' by this definition. So, it's the far right Tories themselves interfering in democracy by stifling May's 'Brexit', if one happens to mistakenly believe the referendum was a non-advisory, rationally-framed, responsibly carried-out, singly-decisive democratic process.

Of course, this only serves to highlight why the referendum was not even close to being a binding democratic decision by accepted norms. No one bothered to define 'Brexit', explain the implications of various possibile 'Brexits', and put those possible 'Brexits' to the electorate. It was the equivalent of holding an election for an abstract noun like 'happiness' or an imaginary state like 'nirvana', only for people to feel cheated when the undefined fancies in their heads failed to materialise.

Even then, this malframed nonsense was supposed to be advisory. The obvious advice arising from its surprise outcome was that a proper Brexit referendum — fully enumerated, explained and with a certainty threshold of 60% or such — ought to take place.

And, as must be undeniably accepted by anyone who cares about democratic decision making, even a proper referendum — which hasn't taken place yet — could rightly always and ever be undone by subsequent democratic votes.

To squawk about 'democracy' here is to hide behind a veil of 'will of the people' soundbites while trampling actual democratic norms. It's also to pretend that May's version of Brexit is not also 'Brexit', as if anyone knows what 'Brexit' means. The surprise result of an appallingly mismanaged advisory referendum only justifies one thing: a serious referendum properly defined, explained and managed. And if that can't be done because the premise is so absurd it can't even be defined, the enterprise should be abandoned and the problem taken back to where complex, nebulous, hard-to-grasp matters with profound, far-reaching implications really belong: the long-term parliamentary process.

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Culprit Cancer



Joined: 06 Feb 2003
Location: Port Melbourne

PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:39 am
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I listen to Dr Keith Suter on a regular basis and in my view he's pretty unbiased when it comes to Global Affairs. This morning he said those pushing for Brexit did so for Cultural reasons and those who are against did so for Economic reasons. So the people would rather be poorer if it meant that they kept their culture. Makes total sense when the 2nd most spoken language in the UK is Polish.

The world as a whole is in the same type of dilemma. Close shop and don't let anyone else in or take the best that a global economy offers with the bad side as part of the trade off. Trump - Build a Wall. Australia - Stop the Boats. Europe - Close Borders.
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HAL 

Please don't shout at me - I can't help it.


Joined: 17 Mar 2003


PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:44 am
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We are all in a global village.
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thesoretoothsayer 



Joined: 26 Apr 2017


PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:46 am
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Culprit wrote:
I listen to Dr Keith Suter on a regular basis and in my view he's pretty unbiased when it comes to Global Affairs. This morning he said those pushing for Brexit did so for Cultural reasons and those who are against did so for Economic reasons...


That's a very perceptive observation. It also explains why there is little hope of rapprochement between the two sides.
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:02 am
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May wins the confidence vote 200-117
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:02 am
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May has survived the vote. The Victorian Libs are said to be relieved that Daniel Andrews didn’t win this poll - there may be limits to his omnipotence.
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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:43 pm
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https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/12/13/theresa-may-no-confidence-brexit/

Quote:
May survives (for now) as the UK hurtles toward a Brexit crash-out
Guy Rundle


UK Prime Minister Theresa May has survived a no-confidence motion within the Conservative Party, quite possibly leaving the country in an even more confused situation than before.

May won the vote 200-117, also quite possibly the worst possible result, with the PM gaining just enough of a margin to make her position tenable, yet insufficient to give her intra-party legitimacy.

Best of all, under the party’s stability rules, another such motion cannot be brought on for another year. The vote was triggered by a petition of 48 letters to the “1922 committee” of Tory backbenchers (the year is their average birth date), demanding a confidence vote.

The pro-Leave Brexit camp have been pushing for what the Brits don’t call a spill since the announcement of the deal struck between May and the EU, which would see the UK subject to EU rules for an indefinite period, in order to stay within the EU Customs Union, until a UK-EU trade deal was negotiated.

That deal had to be ratified by parliament. But it never had any chance of getting up, with Labour, Lib Dems and Tory leavers opposed. Two days ago, May pulled the bill on the eve of the vote, and the no-confidence motion followed.

The situation is now head-bangingly complex. May has been conducting a round of shuttle diplomacy in Europe to try and get a better deal, but everyone knows this is simply a way of looking busy. There is no better offer on the table, and nothing that would satisfy Leavers, save for access to the Customs Union, but immunity from EU laws and regulations, essentially a giant free rider, and a gaping hole in EU governance.

The “crash-out” date of March 29 next year looms, in which the Article 50 process fully kicks in, and the UK leaves the EU. At that point the UK will be at a disadvantage to non-EU nations that have customs protocols in place, because there will be no protocols in place. Customs will be ad hoc, and the Northern Ireland-Irish Republic border will have to be re-enforced, or left as an open back door to the EU.

So what next? The pressure will now start to build on everyone. The Leave Tories will remain steadfast, inviting a crash-out. Not only do they want to retake their party and reform it along neo-Thatcherite lines, but personal ambition is playing a role; this chaos is the best shot for Boris Johnston, Jacob Rees-Mogg and others to present their leadership credentials.

Labour, too, will hold the line — but the pressure on the Corbyn leadership will be tremendous. Had the party been under Blairite leadership, they would quite possibly have crossed the floor to support the EU’s deal. May would have accepted it, knowing that some sort of place in history was secure, and Labour would have gone on to election victory as the natural party of government against a Tory rabble.

But the Corbyn leadership is pro-Leave itself — left Brexit, or “Lexit” as it’s being called — and they have no incentive to help May in this regard. What they want is a new election, a contest on the Tory legitimacy to lead on anything. They’re in talks with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to come out on a parliamentary no-confidence motion — the other parties would join that — but the DUP would need a spoon with a handle the length of the Irish Sea to sup with Corbyn, whom they see as an IRA sympathiser.

The real jam would come for Labour if May were to go nuclear and propose a second referendum, based on the proposition that “Leave” means “leave with no deal”. That is what many, many people want — many of them Labour supporters — but a second referendum, a “Yes” vote to remain, would give May what she needed to reclaim control of her party. Labour would then be split.

Thrills and spills. Mostly spills. And a vote curiously named around confidence, the one thing in short supply, even before the gates close at Calais, in a few months’ time.

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Wokko Pisces

Come and take it.


Joined: 04 Oct 2005


PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:45 pm
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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:13 am
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^Would you like to explain that? What do you think is happening that shouldn't be happening? Who is to blame for what bad thing and why?
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