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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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Dating back to 1994 when the top 8 system was introduced, the minimum number of games required to win in order to finish in the top 4 has ranged from 13 to 17 wins.
Since 2011, the top 4 sides have all won a minimum of 15 games, so I think it's fair to say we need to win at least 15 or 16 games to have a chance.
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BazBoy
Joined: 11 Sep 2014
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I have no doubt in my mind ,not that I can say how many more games we win
But this side finds ways considerably more to win that last year to win
Well actually the only way to win—-work harder than your opponent and do everything possible to give ya teammates a chop out
So summing up no lower than 2nd at season end
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I'm not arguing--just explaining why i am right |
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tbaker
Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG
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| eureka wrote: | | 5 more wins should do it but in all just keep chalking up the wins keep it going |
13 wins? I think it'll take more than that. I think 15 wins for top 4, 16 for 2nd
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I find your lack of faith disturbing |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Some of you may remember the great share tip I gave fellow nicksters back around 2009. NST, the buy in was around 8c from memory. Their price today is $9.46 and they are one of the biggest gold miners in Australia.
Well, these sort of shares don't come around every day, but, there's a sneaky one called Walkabout (WKT) that the tom toms tell me are going to head north a loooong way.
Priced at 30c today 
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Don't count the days, make the days count. |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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i'm glad no one is talking about percentage.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Skids wrote: | | K wrote: | | ... I suggest re-watching and counting to see if they missed one. |
It wouldn't matter K, I've read the 'terms and conditions'.... if I was a left wing sook I would have burnt sportsbet down long ago. |
Sportsbet offers partial payouts after punter rage over voided AFL bets
https://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/sportsbet-offers-partial-payouts-after-punter-rage-over-voided-afl-bets-20190527-p51roq.html
'Sportsbet... has agreed to pay out a fraction of the face value of all winning bets placed on the weekend's AFL matches after initially voiding bets due to "incorrect pricing".
Sportsbet is facing the prospect of legal action after telling punters it had exercised a right under its terms and conditions to cancel bets due to "obvious or manifest errors" including prices.
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Sportsbet's decision to void bets and refund the money wagered ignited a storm of criticism from punters and raised the prospect of legal action either in court or before its regulator in the Northern Territory, where it holds its licence.
In an effort to appease customers whose bets were cancelled, Sportsbet on Monday told winning punters that it would reinstate their bets but at the lower odds of an average of about $1.30 – which it said were the correct odds – and pay them out accordingly.
…
Law firm Slater & Gordon said it had received several inquiries regarding the "novel issue" and was investigating whether claims against Sportsbet were viable.
Maurice Blackburn ... said there was nothing in the bookmaker's terms and conditions to suggest that setting the wrong price was a reason not to pay out customers, and Sportsbet would be in a "tight spot if they don’t honour the claims".' |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| E wrote: | | i'm glad no one is talking about percentage. |
Too soon. That will be a very important factor in ladder position.
Imagine finishing on the same number of wins as WCE and 2nd is decided by %.
Ours is tracking quite nicely now, 2 big wins v Freo & Melb leading in to the bye weekend, are as critical as the wins. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Jezza wrote: | Dating back to 1994 when the top 8 system was introduced, the minimum number of games required to win in order to finish in the top 4 has ranged from 13 to 17 wins.
Since 2011, the top 4 sides have all won a minimum of 15 games, so I think it's fair to say we need to win at least 15 or 16 games to have a chance. |
| tbaker wrote: | ...
I think 15 wins for top 4, 16 for 2nd |
The forecasts online suggest 12 wins, maybe 11 plus percentage, will get you in the 8, 15 wins will get you in the top 4 and 16 wins will get you a top-2 finish.
Skids, can we bet on this? I haven't seen a market for it. |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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That story reminded me of a Melbourne Cup Day years ago.
We'd backed this real longshot months earlier on the early markets with Darwin Allsports aka Sportsbet. 1999 LAHAR
Big mob of us watched it down the Greenwood, was so loud, couldn't hear a thing but knew we hadn't won.... or did we 
No foxtel back then, lstening on the radio. News comes on and we had dead heated for third in the cup!!!! Bang, it's back on!!
Flick the radio back to the races, Ascot is on.
We picked this thing and I got on the blower. They were so busy with Cup day and I kept getting put on hold, the phone would pick up and I'd try to say this nags name but kept getting £$%$ed around for 4 or 5 minutes.
Long story short, the thing I was trying to back... we don't get on. I hang up and it wins.... pays $18 for the win, I was trying to have 50 x 50 on it. We're gutted.... drunk and in the pool, we carry on drinking and partying.
Next day, I think, nah, **** that!
Ring up Darwin Allsports complaints. Turns out, they recorded all calls, evem when you were on hold.
Old mate rings me back, reckons the tapes he just listened to made him laugh harder than he'd ever laughed in his life. He credited my account with $1500 and said have a great day.
Last edited by Skids on Wed May 29, 2019 10:32 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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This looks like value to me...
Pies 1-39
WCE 40+
Tigers Line (-19.5)
12/1  |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Skids wrote: | ... We picked this thing and I got on the blower. They were so busy with Cup day and I kept getting put on hold, the phone would pick up and I'd try to say this nags name but kept getting �$%$ed around for 4 or 5 minutes.
...
Ring up Darwin Allsports complaints. Turns out, they recorded all calls, even when you were on hold.
Old mate rings me back, reckons the tapes he just listened to made him laugh harder than he'd ever laughed in his life. He credited my account with $1500 and said have a great day. |
So they caught both your name and the horse on the recording? |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| K wrote: | | Skids wrote: | ... We picked this thing and I got on the blower. They were so busy with Cup day and I kept getting put on hold, the phone would pick up and I'd try to say this nags name but kept getting �$%$ed around for 4 or 5 minutes.
...
Ring up Darwin Allsports complaints. Turns out, they recorded all calls, even when you were on hold.
Old mate rings me back, reckons the tapes he just listened to made him laugh harder than he'd ever laughed in his life. He credited my account with $1500 and said have a great day. |
So they caught both your name and the horse on the recording? |
Was all done over the phone then. First thing you said was name and account number. I said the horses name a few times but somehow, each time someone spoke to me, it was the wrong department... sports instead of racing from memory. Each time I was on hold I'd be explaining to my mates what was going on, pretty colourfully too! |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| K wrote: | | Jezza wrote: | Dating back to 1994 when the top 8 system was introduced, the minimum number of games required to win in order to finish in the top 4 has ranged from 13 to 17 wins.
Since 2011, the top 4 sides have all won a minimum of 15 games, so I think it's fair to say we need to win at least 15 or 16 games to have a chance. |
| tbaker wrote: | ...
I think 15 wins for top 4, 16 for 2nd |
The forecasts online suggest 12 wins, maybe 11 plus percentage, will get you in the 8, 15 wins will get you in the top 4 and 16 wins will get you a top-2 finish.
Skids, can we bet on this? I haven't seen a market for it. |
There's a market for Top 4. The wiggles look like the value bet to me @ $1.70.
GF Quinella bets
Pies/Cats $5
GWS/Cats $5
GWS/Pies $7
Cats/Tigers $8
Cats/WCE $9
Pies/Tigers $11
Pies/WCE $13
Pies/Lions $34
Pies/Crows $51
Pies/Hawks $81
Pies/Power $126 |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Ok, just a 2 leg multi on our game.
Pies 1-39/Total over 159 @ $4.75 x $100
3 leg mixed sport - Golden State/ Manly/ Tigers by 1-39 @ $8.75 x $25 |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| K wrote: | The handicaps are:
Ade +6, Bris +14, Carl +32, Coll +4, Ess +6, Fre +20, Geel +8, Haw +10, NM +10, Mel +2, Port +14, Rich +0, StK +24, Syd +10, WC +4, WB +20, GC +48, GWS +10 |
Wouldn't mind being on them now. 5 very winnable games ahead. |
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