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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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sb's make-or-miss-8 markets:
Geelong 92% (to make 8 )
Collingwood 91%
GWS, WC 86%
Richmond 77%
Essendon 63%
Port 58%
St Kilda 54%
Brisbane, Fremantle 39%
Adelaide 38%
Hawthorn 34%
Melbourne 19%
Bulldogs 12%
Sydney 8%
NM 7%
GC 6%
Carlton 4%
(Margins about 6-8%.) |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Skids wrote: | | K wrote: | | Well, if there was a rush of small bets, they had time to adjust. The risk is if there's one huge bet of e.g. $50,000 and that guy wins. |
They would never bet that K, they take a bit (about $100) at those odds, then throw you shorter odds for the balance.
The commercial bookies are gutless wonders, they all wait for others to frame their market and panic when a punter pulls out a handful of pineapples.
... |
Yeah, that would be the "safe" or "gutless" thing they must normally do, Skids, but...
| K wrote: | "Tiger Woods’ remarkable Masters victory has seen three different betting agencies pay out over $1 million to punters.
William Hill, FanDuel and DraftKings are each reporting losses over the $1 million mark after Tiger shocked the sporting world at Augusta.
Tiger was a despised outsider among betting agencies heading into the Masters, sitting at 14-1 with most sportsbooks.
But punters parted with their cash in record numbers over the juicy odds, with one whacking a whopping US$85,000 on Tiger ($118,500 AU).
...
“It’s rare that someone bets that much on something like that,” said the company’s sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich.
“It’s great to see Tiger back. It’s a painful day for William Hill — our biggest golf loss ever — but a great day for golf."
(AAP) |
We can see pre-Open golf articles where they say Tiger should have been 33-1 and bookies were just offering 14-1 because "clueless" Tiger fans couldn't stop wasting their money on him even at those "bad" odds. |
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Skids 
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| K wrote: | | Skids wrote: | | K wrote: | | Well, if there was a rush of small bets, they had time to adjust. The risk is if there's one huge bet of e.g. $50,000 and that guy wins. |
They would never bet that K, they take a bit (about $100) at those odds, then throw you shorter odds for the balance.
The commercial bookies are gutless wonders, they all wait for others to frame their market and panic when a punter pulls out a handful of pineapples.
... |
Yeah, that would be the "safe" or "gutless" thing they must normally do, Skids, but...
| K wrote: | "Tiger Woods’ remarkable Masters victory has seen three different betting agencies pay out over $1 million to punters.
William Hill, FanDuel and DraftKings are each reporting losses over the $1 million mark after Tiger shocked the sporting world at Augusta.
Tiger was a despised outsider among betting agencies heading into the Masters, sitting at 14-1 with most sportsbooks.
But punters parted with their cash in record numbers over the juicy odds, with one whacking a whopping US$85,000 on Tiger ($118,500 AU).
...
“It’s rare that someone bets that much on something like that,” said the company’s sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich.
“It’s great to see Tiger back. It’s a painful day for William Hill — our biggest golf loss ever — but a great day for golf."
(AAP) |
We can see pre-Open golf articles where they say Tiger should have been 33-1 and bookies were just offering 14-1 because "clueless" Tiger fans couldn't stop wasting their money on him even at those "bad" odds. |
He mixed up his words there.... Bullshit is what he was searching for.
They do not bet that, believe me, it's nothing more than advertising the agency. How they get away with it is incredible. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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R7 Line
BetEasy: Collingwood (-21.5); Melbourne (-3.5); Brisbane (-6.5); Richmond (-21.5);
West Coast (-51.5); GWS (-25.5); NM (-8.5); Geelong (-7.5); Adelaide (-18.5).
sportsbet: Collingwood (-20.5); Melbourne (-3.5); Brisbane (-8.5); Richmond (-22.5);
West Coast (-51.5); GWS (-22.5); NM (-6.5); Geelong (-9.5); Adelaide (-18.5).
R7 H2H
BetEasy: Collingwood 1.33 (3.25); Melbourne 1.78 (2.00); Brisbane 1.68 (2.15); Richmond 1.33 (3.20);
West Coast 1.03 (10.00); GWS 1.29 (3.45); NM 1.65 (2.20); Geelong 1.54 (2.37); Adelaide 1.33 (3.14).
sportsbet: Collingwood 1.32 (3.40); Melbourne 1.72 (2.04); Brisbane 1.58 (2.29); Richmond 1.26 (3.70);
West Coast 1.04 (10.00); GWS 1.28 (3.45); NM 1.65 (2.16); Geelong 1.65 (2.20); Adelaide 1.40 (2.90). |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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R7 Line
BetEasy: Collingwood (-20.5); Hawthorn (-4.5); Brisbane (-17.5); Richmond (-18.5);
West Coast (-46.5); GWS (-31.5); NM (-8.5); Geelong (-14.5); Adelaide (-19.5).
sportsbet: Collingwood (-20.5); Hawthorn (-4.5); Brisbane (-17.5); Richmond (-18.5);
West Coast (-47.5); GWS (-32.5); NM (-9.5); Geelong (-14.5); Adelaide (-18.5).
TAB: Collingwood (-22.5); Hawthorn (-5.5); Brisbane (-18.5); Richmond (-19.5);
West Coast (-46.5); GWS (-32.5); NM (-8.5); Geelong (-14.5); Adelaide (-19.5).
R7 H2H
BetEasy: Collingwood 1.35 (3.25); Hawthorn 1.75 (2.08 ); Brisbane 1.40 (3.00); Richmond 1.36 (3.20);
West Coast 1.07 (8.50); GWS 1.19 (4.75); NM 1.62 (2.35); Geelong 1.54 (2.37); Adelaide 1.34 (3.30).
sportsbet: Collingwood 1.33 (3.14); Hawthorn 1.72 (2.10); Brisbane 1.38 (2.90); Richmond 1.33 (3.14);
West Coast 1.07 (7.00); GWS 1.20 (4.20); NM 1.60 (2.30); Geelong 1.48 (2.60); Adelaide 1.36 (3.05).
TAB: Collingwood 1.36 (3.30); Hawthorn 1.75 (2.15); Brisbane 1.42 (3.00); Richmond 1.36 (3.30);
West Coast 1.08 (8.50); GWS 1.22 (4.50); NM 1.65 (2.30); Geelong 1.50 (2.70); Adelaide 1.40 (3.10). |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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The Pies always feel too short... but WC this week are given an 89% chance of beating GC.  Is it really that high? You'd reckon they'll win, but 89% is a big number. Maybe the line bet on GC (+47.5) is worth a flutter. |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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| K wrote: | | The Pies always feel too short... but WC this week are given an 89% chance of beating GC. Is it really that high? You'd reckon they'll win, but 89% is a big number. Maybe the line bet on GC (+47.5) is worth a flutter. |
Definitely!
Done a multi with; GC and a few others at the line; GWS (-31.5), Lions (-18.5), Cats (-14.5), Dogs (+16.5), Dockers (+19.5) & Port (+21.5) into Hawks and Blues h/h .... $5 for $1800
$5 on Pendles @ 50/1 to kick the first goal tonight.
$20 on the Royal baby to be called Mary @ 15/1 as well  |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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R8 Line
BetEasy: Essendon (-7.5); WB (-4.5); Collingwood (-42.5); Melbourne (-17.5);
Adelaide (-7.5); WC (-18.5); Geelong (-26.5); GWS (-5.5); Richmond (-8.5).
sportsbet: Essendon (-10.5); WB (-4.5); Collingwood (-40.5); Melbourne (-20.5);
Adelaide (-7.5); WC (-16.5); Geelong (-26.5); GWS (-6.5); Richmond (-10.5).
R8 H2H
BetEasy: Essendon 1.63 (2.25); WB 1.75 (2.05); Collingwood 1.10 (6.50); Melbourne 1.39 (2.90);
Adelaide 1.60 (2.30); WC 1.38 (3.00); Geelong 1.25 (3.80); GWS 1.68 (2.15); Richmond 1.60 (2.30).
sportsbet: Essendon 1.53 (2.39); WB 1.72 (2.13); Collingwood 1.10 (6.00); Melbourne 1.30 (3.32);
Adelaide 1.61 (2.25); WC 1.37 (2.92); Geelong 1.20 (4.25); GWS 1.65 (2.16); Richmond 1.53 (2.39). |
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Skids
Quitting drinking will be one of the best choices you make in your life.
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Location: Joined 3/6/02 . Member #175
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Geez it's cruel sometimes.
Had a 3 leg multi last night, $50 to win $1k.
Pies 1-39 - tick
Total over 166.5 - tick
Sidey 30 disposals - he gets 29  |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Sidey just never plays well enough to meet anyone's expectations, does he?  |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| Skids wrote: | ...
Pies 1-39 - tick
Total over 166.5 - tick
Sidey 30 disposals - he gets 29 |
Maybe rewatch the game and count. They could have missed one. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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R8 Line
BetEasy: Essendon (-11.5); WB (-7.5); Collingwood (-38.5); Melbourne (-18.5);
Adelaide (-7.5); WC (-8.5); Geelong (-23.5); GWS (-12.5); Fremantle (-7.5).
sb: Essendon (-11.5); WB (-5.5); Collingwood (-37.5); Melbourne (-18.5);
Adelaide (-6.5); WC (-7.5); Geelong (-24.5); GWS (-11.5); Fremantle (-8.5).
TAB: Essendon (-11.5); WB (-6.5); Collingwood (-38.5); Melbourne (-18.5);
Adelaide (-6.5); WC (-6.5); Geelong (-24.5); GWS (-9.5); Fremantle (-8.5).
R8 H2H
BetEasy: Essendon 1.54 (2.50); WB 1.65 (2.25); Collingwood 1.10 (7.00); Melbourne 1.38 (3.05);
Adelaide 1.65 (2.25); WC 1.62 (2.30); Geelong 1.28 (3.70); GWS 1.50 (2.60); Fremantle 1.65 (2.25).
sb: Essendon 1.51 (2.45); WB 1.61 (2.25); Collingwood 1.09 (7.00); Melbourne 1.35 (3.00);
Adelaide 1.67 (2.15); WC 1.56 (2.33); Geelong 1.26 (3.75); GWS 1.51 (2.50); Fremantle 1.60 (2.30).
TAB: Essendon 1.56 (2.50); WB 1.67 (2.25); Collingwood 1.13 (6.50); Melbourne 1.41 (3.00);
Adelaide 1.70 (2.20); WC 1.65 (2.30); Geelong 1.28 (3.80); GWS 1.56 (2.50); Fremantle 1.62 (2.30). |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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R9 Line
BetEasy: West Coast (-22.5); Collingwood (-34.5); Brisbane (-3.5); Geelong (-29.5);
Essendon (-16.5); NM (-4.5); Port (-30.5); Richmond (-15.5); GWS (-47.5).
sb: West Coast (-19.5); Collingwood (-33.5); Brisbane (-1.5); Geelong (-27.5);
Essendon (-16.5); NM (-4.5); Port (-32.5); Richmond (-12.5); GWS (-47.5).
R9 H2H
BetEasy: West Coast 1.31 (3.35); Collingwood 1.17 (4.85); Brisbane 1.85 (1.93); Geelong 1.21 (4.35);
Essendon 1.37 (3.00); NM 1.71 (2.10); Port 1.21 (4.25); Richmond 1.45 (2.70); GWS 1.08 (7.50).
sb: West Coast 1.30 (3.30); Collingwood 1.13 (6.05); Brisbane 1.76 (2.05); Geelong 1.22 (4.00);
Essendon 1.36 (2.99); NM 1.72 (2.10); Port 1.14 (4.80); Richmond 1.46 (2.59); GWS 1.04 (9.50). |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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Skids, are there markets for winning individual quarters?
They say over R1-7, the Pies are +18 in Q1 (  ), but -7 in Q2 ( ), and +3 in Q3, +5 in Q4.
Geelong look consistent over four quarters: +12, +6, +7, +7.
In Q2, Port is +14 and GC -15. |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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R9 Line
BetEasy: West Coast (-25.5); Collingwood (-27.5); Brisbane (-4.5); Geelong (-32.5);
Essendon (-15.5); NM (-13.5); Port (-34.5); Richmond (-5.5); GWS (-36.5).
sportsbet: West Coast (-25.5); Collingwood (-29.5); Brisbane (-3.5); Geelong (-33.5);
Essendon (-16.5); NM (-13.5); Port (-35.5); Richmond (-5.5); GWS (-35.5).
TAB: West Coast (-24.5); Collingwood (-29.5); Brisbane (-3.5); Geelong (-31.5);
Essendon (-15.5); NM (-14.5); Port (-35.5); Richmond (-4.5); GWS (-36.5).
R9 H2H
BetEasy: West Coast 1.25 (4.00); Collingwood 1.22 (4.35); Brisbane 1.76 (2.07); Geelong 1.18 (5.00);
Essendon 1.44 (2.80); NM 1.52 (2.55); Port 1.17 (5.15); Richmond 1.73 (2.12); GWS 1.13 (6.00).
sportsbet: West Coast 1.25 (3.75); Collingwood 1.20 (4.25); Brisbane 1.76 (2.05); Geelong 1.17 (4.60);
Essendon 1.39 (2.85); NM 1.48 (2.54); Port 1.16 (4.80); Richmond 1.72 (2.10); GWS 1.12 (6.00).
TAB: West Coast 1.25 (4.00); Collingwood 1.22 (4.30); Brisbane 1.75 (2.10); Geelong 1.18 (4.80);
Essendon 1.44 (2.80); NM 1.50 (2.60); Port 1.16 (5.20); Richmond 1.77 (2.10); GWS 1.13 (6.00). |
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