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Magpietothemax 
magpietothemax
Joined: 28 Apr 2013
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Brisbane could easily defeat Richmond on the MCG. They have the incentive to burst their guts to achieve a victory:
1) to guarantee a home final
2) to prove that they are the real thing on the G
So I think there is a 50-50 chance of Richmond losing next week.
We simply must win on Friday night to ensure that we take advantage of this result falling our way.
But there is also the very much less likely, but still tangible, possiblity of Dawkthorn beating WC. You should never, unfortunately, write off a team coached by Clarkson. Hawthorn must win on Saturday night to have any chance of playing finals, and you never know what they can produce in such desperate moments. If they managed to defeat WC, even by just 1 point, and we had beaten Essendon, we take West Coast;s position in the Top 4 on percentage.It is highly fortunate that the Dawkthorn WC game occurs on Saturday night, before the Adelaide Bulldogs game, so Dawkthorn will play to the death given that they will be thinking they still have a chance to make the 8. So i would give them roughly a 10% chance of winning against the Eagles. That gives us a pretty good chance of getting into the top 4. Winning against Essendon is utterly essential for us, in every way.
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Magpietothemax
magpietothemax
Joined: 28 Apr 2013
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I don;t think we could risk making Moore's first game back a final. Surely he needs to get a match in before then. If Moore can't play next week, I don't see him playing finals at all.
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Magpietothemax
magpietothemax
Joined: 28 Apr 2013
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I don;t think we could risk making Moore's first game back a final. Surely he needs to get a match in before then. If Moore can't play next week, I don't see him playing finals at all.
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Cam 
Nick's BB Member #166
Joined: 10 May 2002
Location: Springvale
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Richmond will towel up the Lions unfortunately, proving that this year is out of four teams in the 8. I think the Cats are in a hole of their own making, and that the distance between these 4 and Brisbane/Geelong is decent enough to matter. West Coast, Richmond, us and the Dogs.
Happy to be wrong.
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tbaker
Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG
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I think us fans have to realistically accept that we'll finish 5th - any failure to accept such will most likely result in major disappointment next week (akin to a loss, which it felt like today with Richmond winning). Brace ourselves for 5th, anything other than that is a bonus...
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tbaker
Joined: 02 Jul 2018
Location: Q19 Southern Stand MCG
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| Skids wrote: | | So who's likely to be available from; JDG, Moore, Aish, IQ, Wells??? Is Reid any chance, or Sier?? |
Can't see Reid or Sier breaking into the side, even if they're declared available for selection.
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I find your lack of faith disturbing |
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ronrat
Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: Thailand
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dopers won't care if they lose as 8t will get them an mcg final unless wce crash
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Annoying opposition supporters since 1967. |
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RudeBoy
Joined: 28 Nov 2005
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Moore will surely play this week. If not, then it's curtains for him for 2019.
There's no need to rush JDG back, so rest him for another 2 weeks and then we bring him and Stevo back for the finals. |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| Magpietothemax wrote: | | I don;t think we could risk making Moore's first game back a final. Surely he needs to get a match in before then. If Moore can't play next week, I don't see him playing finals at all. |
a bigger risk would be taking him into round 23 with any lingering doubts on his fitness and losing him completely for the finals.
If we are legit here, we really only need to be "full Strength" in week 3 and 4. If Moore came back in week one or two of finals (and was a little below his best), i'd take that any day of the week over playing him in round 23 and risking losing him for the finals.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| RudeBoy wrote: | Moore will surely play this week. If not, then it's curtains for him for 2019.
There's no need to rush JDG back, so rest him for another 2 weeks and then we bring him and Stevo back for the finals. |
Rudey, you are a scribe i respect and admire. But this makes no sense at all. All three come back when they are ready and not before.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| Jezza wrote: | | What'sinaname wrote: | It'll be a preview of the elimination final.
We have little to play for now, as Richmond and WCE are very likely to win their games leaving us at 5th. |
Could be a elimination final preview.
However, I don't understand why Richmond are "very likely" to win next week when they're playing the top team after all. |
Since Brisbane have locked up a top 2 spot, its hard to know how hard they will go (i wonder if it depends on who they think they can beat). If Brisbane beats the Tigers, their "reward" is Collingwood!!!! I wonder how they feel about that. This might dictate how hard they play.
Anyway, i don't care whether we finish 4th or 5th, if we are good enough (and i'm not sure we are), it wont matter.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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Raw Hammer
Joined: 11 Sep 2008
Location: The Gutter
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Brisbane have not locked up a top 2 spot. They are only 5% ahead of WC and 8% ahead of Richmond. WC could do a big number on Hawthorn (10-goal win), and/or Richmond could do a similar number on Brisbane (the net effect of a loss to Richmond means if they’re percentage drops 4% then Richmond’s goes up 4%, and the 8% deficit is covered). Brisbane have everything to play for.
What screwed Collingwood up was Geelong choking at the Gabba.
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Est. 2002 |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| RudeBoy wrote: | ...
There's no need to rush JDG back, so rest him for another 2 weeks ... |
He's not being rested. He's genuinely injured. People are worried about him being ready even for finals. |
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bokka 
Joined: 11 Apr 1999
Location: NY, Ex Land of Brave and Free
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| Skids wrote: | | Raw Hammer wrote: | They can’t finish higher than 7th or lower than 8th, and can’t manipulate who they play cos it’s the first game of the final round. So they’ll likely play with the shackles off which is not ideal, as ALL the pressure will be on us.
Do we play Moore? Do we risk him, with another two week break an option, with top 4 highly unlikely? Probably need to play him, otherwise we enter week one with Stephenson, Moore (and hopefully JDG) with 2-4 months off, which is why the double chance is so important. Other than a home prelim, it gives us a week to gel the injured back into the line up. An elimination final is a crapshoot with so many underdone players.
Ah well, we could always take the AFL to court for the Freo game. |
Lions are a very big chance to beat tigers.
Win and we're in I reckon. |
Brions don't have a lot to play for comp to Tigers I"m afraid. Maybe boils down to if they want to kick Richmond out of the top 4, which could be a big move since Tigers are the form team at present. |
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bokka
Joined: 11 Apr 1999
Location: NY, Ex Land of Brave and Free
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| Cam wrote: | Richmond will towel up the Lions unfortunately, proving that this year is out of four teams in the 8. I think the Cats are in a hole of their own making, and that the distance between these 4 and Brisbane/Geelong is decent enough to matter. West Coast, Richmond, us and the Dogs.
Happy to be wrong. |
Intereesting outlook. My jury is still out on Brions too, this game will go a long way to bringing in a verdict. |
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