Fourth versus fifth, Friday night at the M.C.G, Collingwood against Hawthorn, it doesn’t get much bigger then this. A crowd of around 80,000 is expected at the M.C.G. to see two sides fighting for a top 4 spot go head to head. The Hawks of course are on a mission to do what very few clubs have ever done, win three premierships in a row. Collingwood are just starting to rise again after a fall from grace that saw them miss the finals for the first time in 9 seasons in 2014. The Magpies have performed above external expectations so far and sit with the same win/loss record as the Hawks, 8 wins and 4 losses. Only the Hawks superior percentage separates the young Magpies from the two time defending champions. It’s a mouth watering match up for sure.

There’s a problem for Collingwood though, they simply don’t beat the Hawks. In fact of the last 15 clashes, dating way back to 2007, the Pies have only won 3, with a brutal average losing margin of 38 points. The Hawks have dominated the Magpies in recent years especially with 7 wins in a row since the epic 2011 preliminary final where the Pies came from behind to end the Hawks season. In those 7 matches the Hawks average winning margin is 45 points showing just how dominant Hawthorn has been over the Magpies in the past 3 seasons. The Pies will have to find a way to improve against the Hawks or face another embarrassing loss to the defending premiers.

 

PREVIOUS FORM

Collingwood’s form has been top notch for a group with the 5^th youngest list in the AFL. The Magpies notched up 4 wins in a row before the bye claiming some handy victims such as North Melbourne and the GWS Giants. A real test awaited the Magpies though after the bye as they headed West to face the top of the ladder Fremantle Dockers at Subiaco Oval on Thursday night. The young pies were impressive, they matched it with the older and more experienced Dockers for just about the whole game but a few crucial errors late on allowed the home team to come away with a 7 point win. It was a bitter-sweet night for coach Nathan Buckley and his boys, on one hand they had tested and competed with one of the stand out teams in the competition but they had also let an opportunity to win slip through their fingers. It was an impressive performance though even if they didn’t get the 4 premiership points.

After 8 games the defending premiers were sputtering as they sat with a 4-4 win/loss record. Could it be that these Hawks were over the hill? Could it be that their time was past and the new breed was of teams was going to come through an overtake them? The answer was emphatic as the Hawks went on a 4 game winning with the smallest winning margin being 29 points. It was like the old Hawks were back in town, they were unsociable, they were tough and they were damn effective as they over ran what they considered inferior opponents with relative ease. What that little winning streak has achieved is simple, Hawthorn are back in the top 4 with 10 games still remaining. The win against Essendon last Saturday may well have been the least impressive of those 4 wins but it was still Hawks like as they ran away with a 38 point lead to set up a massive clash with the Pies this Friday night.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The young Magpies have made a splash already in season 2015 but they aren’t finished yet. After notching 4 wins in a row to get back into the top 4 the loss to Fremantle hurt the Pies ladder position but gained them plenty of admiration. No one tipped Collingwood to beat the all powerful Dockers on their home ground yet halfway through the last quarter it looked a distinct possibility. Yes, the result didn’t go the way the Magpies wanted in the end but the endeavour and defensive pressure was as good as any team can provide. This week they face an even bigger test versus the might of the 2 time defending champions. The young Magpies will see it as just another challenge that will better them on their rise up the ladder but they’ll also believe they can match it, and even defeat this Hawthorn outfit. You could almost go through the entire 22 who played for the Pies last week and say they are having a better 2015 then they did 2014. There’s new recruits, both old and young, that have added a much needed boost to a squad that finished last season on a down note. One of those recruits is Travis Varcoe, the 3 time Geelong premiership player who crossed to the Pies in the trade period as part of the Beams and Lumumba deal. Varcoe suddenly himself has been rejuvenated and has brought a sense of calm and experience to a group badly needed of both. His run down and tackle of Pearce last week was the stuff of inspiration and his physicality has surprised many as well at the club. Add in Jack Crisp and the draftees and this is a different Collingwood team to the one that faded poorly in the back half of 2014.

The game against the Hawks really is going to be the ultimate test and coach Nathan Buckley and the selection committee have a few decisions to make. On the injury front it seems the 22 who played in Perth will be available for selection even if a few are a bit banged up. Brodie Grundy and Levi Greenwood are fit and ready to return if called upon while youngsters like Jonathan Marsh, Brayden Maynard, Ben Kennedy and Darcy Moore will also come into consideration. The VFL Magpies had a gutsy win over the top of the ladder Box Hill Hawks on Saturday (Hawthorn’s VFL affiliate) and those names above plus a few others are really pushing their case. Of the side that played in Fremantle Paul Seedsman, youngster Jordan De Goey, Jesse White and Adam Oxley may be the ones stiff to miss out but the no change sign could even go up given that impressive performance versus the Dockers. No matter what the final line-up is this Collingwood side will be a different beast to the one that meekly lost to the Hawks twice last season.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

Hawthorn are still a scary proposition for any team. There’s little doubt that come the end of this season they will again be there fighting to win yet another premiership. Yes they started the season rather slowly (for them) but their last 4 games have been typical Hawks football. They also have the wood over Collingwood and that counts for a lot when going into a game like this. The loss of James Frawley to a shoulder injury last week weakens them a little but they have a few ready and able replacements that should get the job done. The Hawks will see Collingwood as one of their challengers, a team that wants to move up into the top 4 and knock them out and that in itself should provide enough motivation for the Hawthorn players.

The Hawks forward line is the potent and dangerous in the AFL, as show by the total points the Hawks have accumulated so far in season 2015. The Hawks have kicked more then 10 goals more then the next best attacking team in the AFL (West Coast) and 140 more points then the third best scorers, which happens to be the Magpies. The loss of Lance Franklin 18 months ago if anything has improved this Hawthorn attack as they now have a plethora of options to attack with. The Hawks have 7 players who average a goal a game or more with Bruest, Gunston and Roughead all going at a rate of over 2 goals per game. It makes it a really tough task for any team to defend against and while the Magpies backline has been good so far this season but even it will have trouble contending against this powerful hawthorn forward line.

The Hawks backline has for a long time been seen as the area where you can exploit them and with James Frawley out with a long term injury it may well be their weakest area on the ground. The problem is they still rank 5^th for points conceded and that’s not even allowing for their more attacking game style compared to others in the top 5-6 on the ladder. This week, even without Frawley they will still have Lake, Stratton, Birchall, Burgoyne and Gibson down back and that’s a formidable grouping indeed. They do face a Magpies forward line that is much improved on the 2014 version with the Pies being the most accurate goal kicking team in the competition. If the Pies can get the ball inside 50 quickly the likes of Cloke, Elliott, White, Grundy and Fasolo may well be able to put a healthy score on the board.

The Hawthorn midfield is a beast, it’s strong, it’s flexible but it also has plenty of outside run to take advantage of the ability to win the hard ball. The Hawks rank in the top 7 for contested possessions, clearances and centre clearances showing that even with some of their star midfielders aging they still possess one of the best central cores in the league. They come up against a Magpies midfield that has improved on last season especially in regards to contested possessions. The Pies rank first in that category and will put up a real fight against an experienced and strong Hawthorn midfield. One area that is seen as an area where you can exploit the Hawks is in the ruck. But once again they even rankly highly in average hitouts sitting 6^th in the league, well above the Magpies lowly 14^th spot. Like in most games the midfield goes a long way to determining the outcome of the game and this one should be no different.

The Hawks are back in form and while they still may be a little bit off the all conquering team that ripped Sydney apart on Grand Final day last season they will be confident of winning this game. At the selection table a replacement for James Frawley will have to be found with Ryan Schoenmakers and Angus Litherland the two most likely to be considered. Matt Spangher may well have been considered also but he hurt an ankle in the VFL and will miss a few weeks at least. The Hawks should get Cyril Rioli back who was a late withdrawal last weekend and that only serves to make them even more dangerous. Hawthorn need to win this game to keep pace with the top 4 so you’d expect them to be their ruthless and aggressive best on Friday night.

 

TIP

Everything points to another comfortable Hawthorn win over Collingwood in this game. The stats back it up, the form backs it up and the likely line ups point to that too. But this is a different Collingwood team to the one that in the past 3 seasons has meekly laid down and allowed the Hawks to roll over them with efficiency and power. This Collingwood team hunts the ball carrier maybe better then any other team in the competition and it’s taking it’s chance inside 50 when they come.

The Magpies would love to have Reid and Greenwood out there this week but even without them they’ve developed into a team that can test anyone in the competition. The night time conditions suit the Pies too, it’s likely to be slippery and slightly difficult conditions and that may keep the score down considerably. If Collingwood can start this game well I believe they can get on top of a Hawks team that isn’t yet back to 100% full power. Collingwood to win a thriller at the G.

MAGPIES BY 4 POINTS.

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