Late last season, when the 2015 AFL premiership season fixture was released in it’s entirety, the Collingwood football club stared anxiously at a particular three week period of the draw. After their mid season bye, the Magpies would face some tough tasks, a trip to Western Australia to play Fremantle, a match against the two time reigning premiers Hawthorn then to top it off another interstate game against the buzz team of 2014, the Port Adelaide Power. Two of those three games have come and gone and while the Magpies fought hard, even above expectations in both games, they came away with two losses. Now comes the final stage of this triumvirate of sorts, when the Pies head to Adelaide Oval on Thursday night to face the horribly out of form Power.

Port Adelaide themselves have been a story to behold so far this season. They were the side to watch coming into the season, having made the preliminary final and gone within a whisker of knocking off the almighty Hawks in that epic contest. This season though they’ve fallen so far from grace that at the moment they sit in 12^th position with a 5-8 win/loss record, only percentage ahead of last years’ wooden spooners’ St Kilda. They haven’t had a terrible run with injuries either, it’s just been a remarkable fall from grace from a club that recruited in the off season as if this season was their shot at a premiership.

So this game becomes Port’s last chance to salvage anything from the season, but its also critical to a Collingwood side who had delusions of grandeur, that of finishing in the top 4. The two clubs do have some history to speak of, with 3 finals being contested between them. The 2002 and 2003 finals games both went the way of Collingwood with the 2002 qualifying final being the stuff of legend down Collingwood way. The Power got some revenge back in 2013 though with an upset win in an elimination final at the MCG. There’s always been an edge to these games, and this clash is sure to be no different.

PREVIOUS FORM

Collingwood may well have played it’s best football of the season so far the last 2 weeks, yet lost both games. With an 8-3 record heading into the popular opinion was that Collingwood hadn’t beaten anyone of quality yet, or even gone close to. In the last 2 weeks after that bye though the Magpies have matched it with 2 of the 3 premiership favourites and arguably should have won both games. Their goal kicking in the third term was a major reason why they weren’t able to defeat the Hawks last week with 11 shots at goal only resulting in 2 goals in that term. The pressure that the Pies have put on the last 2 weeks especially hasn’t gone unnoticed though. They hunt the opposition ball carrier better then anyone else in the league at the moment, and if they can find that polish when they get the ball they may even be a major threat this season.

It’s been a strange season for the Power. They’ve had stunning wins over sides like Hawthorn and cross town rivals the Crows, yet had absolutely shocking losses against lowly teams such as Carlton and Brisbane. But it’s the last 3 games that has effectively ended any hope they have of playing finals. Those losses to Geelong, Carlton and Sydney leave them with a 5-8 record and in danger of slipping into the bottom 4. The loss to Carlton was the one that hurt the most in recent weeks, as if they had of won it and maintained a 6-7 record coming into this game, there might still be hope. Last week versus the Swans in Sydney Port played ok in patches but once again turned the ball over at crucial stages and didn’t play at a consistent level throughout the game. Their season really is in danger of becoming a disaster quickly.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

Collingwood has lost it’s last two games yet at the same time gained so much out of the effort and output in those defeats. Many wondered if the Pies could match it with the best sides in the AFL yet after the last two weeks there’s little doubt left. The improvement across the playing list has been quite remarkable really although they still have some stars at the top of the tree shining bright. None more so then club captain Scott Pendlebury, who despite copping heavy attention from the opposition each week is averaging over 28 disposals. Pendlebury’s game against the Hawks was described by coach Nathan Buckley “as maybe his best ever” and that’s saying a lot from about a multiple Copeland trophy winner who has a Norm Smith medal as well. He was brilliant but so was Dane Swan, who is only trailing the captain by a small margin for average disposals so far this season. Swanny will this week play his 250^th game, becoming only the 12^th Magpies player in the 123 year history of the club to do so. He’s not finished yet either and with these two legends leading the midfield Collingwood are a force once again to be reckoned with.

At the selection table this week the Pies have a few dilemmas. Ruckman Brodie Grundy played in the VFL win on Saturday as did the likes of Paul Seedsman, Ben Kennedy, Jonathan Marsh and Matthew Scharenberg. The last two on that list are yet to debut but were once again mightily impressive in holding down key defensive posts under extreme pressure on Saturday. With Tyson Goldsack and Ben Reid out injured one of those young defenders may be called upon to assist a defense that is struggling at times in games. Unfortunately Goldsack and Reid aren’t the only players unavailable with Greenwood, Ramsay, Freeman and MaCaffer all still a while away from returning to senior contention. The Magpies will put out a strong 22 against Port though and with only 1-2 changes occurring they should play at the same level they have the last 2 weeks which may be too much for this struggling Power side.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

Where do you start with Port Adelaide? They’ve gone from being one of the genuinely scary sides in the AFL to now being a side that seems meek and rather easy to defeat. It’s hard to find reasons too, they haven’t had a long list of injuries, their draw has been tougher then last season but not extreme and they’ve lost games to teams that any decent team shouldn’t lose. It’s strange alright and at times this season senior coach Ken Hinkley must have been wondering what the hell was going on with his players. They look lethargic at times, and their ball use has dropped to almost league worst levels as they lead the AFL in clangers and are well down the list on disposal efficiency. There may not be a quick fix but if there is the Power need to find it by Thursday night or their finals hopes will be over.

The Port Adelaide forward line really should be one of the most dangerous in the AFL with a good mixture of talls and smalls but something isn’t right. Only Jay Schulz and Chad Wingard regularly impacting the scoreboard. In fact Port rank only 12^th for total points score this season which is a stunning turnaround when compared to last season when they were the 2^nd most dangerous attacking team in the league. Yes the ball use going forward hasn’t been as good this season but outside of those 2 players this forward line really isn’t working well. They run into a Pies backline that is going well but has some deficiencies of it’s own. If Port are to defeat the Pies they will need their small and medium forwards, the likes of Monfries, Wingard and Gray to exploit an apparent inability of the Pies defense to stop small forwards from scoring.

The Port midfield is still winning the ball ok as shown by their top 6 ranking for clearances and contested possessions. Their ball use though has been a concern with costly turnovers and poor ball use making it hard for them to capitalise on their actually getting the ball. The class is still there with Boak, Wines, Hartlett, Broadbent Gray and Wingard making up a group that should be as good as any going around. The problem for the Power this week is they face the number one contested ball winning team in the competition although just like Port Collingwood has conceded scores from turnovers at times too. That may make for a real tough, contested ball winning game on a wet and slippery night in Adelaide and that may be exactly what Port need to get back on track in the middle. One area where Port might be able to dominate is in the ruck with Lobbe and Ryder likely to be up against two youngsters, Witts and Grundy. Collingwood rank well down the list for hitouts so if Port are to be any chance at all they will have to win the ruck contest clearly.

The Port Adelaide defensive structure was supreme in 2014. The Power played a team defense that was almost unmatched across the league and it got them within a kick of a grand final in the end. This season though the Port defense has been leaky, they’ve conceded more points then they’ve scored at the other end and that never bodes well of course. Port still are one of the better rebounding teams out of defensive 50 though and this is the other area where they will have to dominate against Collingwood to have any chance at all. It won’t be easy though with the Pies forward line renowned for applying intense tackling pressure which has been so effective this season indeed. Travis Cloke of course looms as the main danger for the Power defense and whether Carlisle or Trengove get Cloke how effective the league’s best contested marking player is will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game.

Port Adelaide can win this game, or at least their talent can. On paper the side isn’t much different to the one that rampaged through the league last season so it’s a total mystery why they’ve dropped off the map so much. Back at home though, in what will be the first game played at Adelaide Oval after the tragic death of Crows coach Phillip Walsh, the Power may well see this as one last chance of redemption. It really is their final chance at any type of meaning to this season too, a loss here and they go 5-9 and that’s about the point you start thinking about next season.

TIP

This should be a great game to watch, yes the conditions may not be ideal but these two teams are as hard nosed as any going around and they really don’t like each other. It’s also the Power’s last chance to keep their dim hopes of finals football alive. Add in the emotion that is flowing around Adelaide following the tragic occurrence of last weekend and this game gets bigger and bigger. On field Collingwood bring in much better form then Port and the injury lists are comparable enough to not be a significant factor.

Another factor is Dane Swan’s 250^th game, some milestone games can produce poor results but everyone loves Swanny and will want to get up for him on the night. Ultimately though it may come down to the good old “who wants this more?” and with a top 4 spot still a possibility but a finals spot almost certain with a triumph here, I expect Collingwood to come away with the win in a low scoring, hard fought game.

MAGPIES BY 13 POINTS.

CONGRATULATIONS DANE SWAN

Dane Swan, the epitome of old school football really, the man loved by everyone Collingwood fan will this Thursday night play his 250^th AFL game. He’s achieved just about everything in the game, from a Brownlow to multiple Copeland trophies and of course being a crucial part of the 2010 premiership. He truly is a Magpie legend.

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