The West Coast Eagles have been the surprise packet of the 2015 AFL premiership season. Going into this year most predictions had Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney in the top four, as they are, but very few had the Eagles up there amongst the real contenders. After 14 games though it seems that West Coast are the real deal, as shown by an 11-3 win/loss record that places them second on the AFL ladder. It’s been a continuation of a gradual rise up the table as they’ve gone from 13^th two seasons ago to 9^th last season, and now are on the verge of securing a top 4 spot.

This Saturday the Eagles face a tough test as they travel to Melbourne to face another side with lofty ambitions, Collingwood. If you go back three games the Eagles were actually behind the Pies on the ladder but after 4 straight wins compared to the Pies 3 straight losses, the Eagles will go into this game as favourites. The Pies have been somewhat unlucky though with those losses all coming by small margins to the Hawks, Dockers and Power. This game will act as a final chance for Collingwood to cling to any top 4 hopes they have while for the Eagles it’s an opportunity to go one step closer to securing a double chance come finals.

History between these two clubs involves some of the most classic finals of all time with the 1990 Qualifying final draw and subsequent rematch being the stuff of football legend. In 2007 the two went to extra time to decide a semi final and there were also 2 finals in 2011 and 2012 that went the Pies way. The Eagles though wouldn’t like the history they have against the Pies in Melbourne though, not having defeated Collingwood away from Western Australia since 2003. They say all streaks are made to be broken and the Eagles will believe this is the week when that one ends.

 

PREVIOUS FORM

It’s been a difficult few weeks down at Collingwood as they tried to traverse their way through a horror three rounds of football. They looked like winning the first of the three tough games in Perth versus the Dockers but got over run. The following week they kicked horribly for goal in the second half against the powerful Hawks to cost them that a much needed win. Then last week they started terribly, giving hope to  the struggling Port Power at home. Despite a great fightback that saw them close to within a few points late, and dominate the inside 50′s in the last quarter, the Pies lost their third game in a row. Worse still is the injury curse is just starting to rear it’s ugly head at the Westpac Centre once again. Add the suspension of Taylor Adams and things are going the wrong way for the Magpies at the moment.

The Eagles form has been nothing short of stunning. After starting the season with a 1-2 record they’ve managed to win 10 of their last 11 games with their only loss coming in that period to North Melbourne in a strange game in Hobart. Since that loss though West Coast have put their foot down again with 3 very strong wins over Richmond, Melbourne and Adelaide. The win last week was professional to say the least, considering the circumstances that surrounded the game. It was the Crows first game since the loss of Phil Walsh and the aftermath showed just how emotional the players from both teams must have felt on the field. But the Eagles performed like a top team, dominating the game and coming away with a 56 point win. That win kept the Eagles in second place and allows them to say they have the best percentage in the AFL also.

 

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW

The Pies have been good the last few weeks but in the end not quite good enough to get the wins. At season’s start if you’d given them an 8-6 record after 14 games they would have taken it but the last 3 weeks has to leave a bitter taste in the players’ mouths. They must move on though and the next 2 games now become even more crucial to the finals hopes of the young Magpies. The Pies fielded the second youngest team of the round last weekend which shows where they are going, and also where they are at now. The good news is there are experienced reinforcements at the ready to return for this clash with the Eagles. Levi Greenwood is almost certain to make his Collingwood debut and with 74 senior games under his bely he will be an ideal replacement for the suspended Taylor Adams. Marley Williams is another almost certain in this week with the in form small defender missing last week’s game for personal reasons. The surprise of the week was when senior coach Nathan Buckley announced that premiership player Tyson Goldsack was fit and available and will be in contention. Goldsack, Greenwood and Williams would add both experience and toughness to a Pies side that needs to stop this losing streak it’s on.

If there’s an area that Collingwood need to improve upon going into this game it’s the forward line, with the likes of Cloke, White, Blair and Elliott struggling to score over the past 3 weeks. They have the talent up there but have been restricted by some of the best defensive teams in the league during this losing run. West Coast though are weakened by injury down back so if ever this Magpies forward line is going to spring back to life, this would be the game to do so. Collingwood will know how important this game is, another loss here and that’s 4 in a row and they risk slipping further into a dog fight for 8^th  place. The Pies have a really good recent record against the Eagles in Melbourne and will be wanting to continue that on Saturday.

 

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

The West Coast Eagles may be the feel good story of season 2015 so far. They’ve gone from a side that failed to make the top 8 last season to a realistic chance of finishing top 4 and therefore contending for the premiership. They’ve also done this despite 2 absolute key injuries to defenders that most thought would derail their season before it even began. But West Coast has covered the loss of Brown and Mackenzie better then anyone expected and have a chance this weekend to all but sew up a top 4 spot.

The Eagles midfield isn’t seen by most as the best midfield in the competition yet it gets the job done. Where this West Coast central core really dominates is when it’s 4 on 4 at the centre bounces, as shown by only Adelaide averaging more centre clearances so far this season. A big reason for that is Nic Natanui and Matt Priddis, a combination that any club in the league would pay big money for. They are able assisted by the likes of Shuey, Rosa, Wellingham, Yeo, Cripps, Gaff and this week’s rising star nominee Dom Sheed. This midfield which externally might not be ranked that high is becoming as effective as any in the competition. The Eagles should dominate the ruck against a young Collingwood ruck duo but they’ll have to get out into open space as the Pies are the best contested ball winning team in the league.

The West Coast forward line is the envy of just about every team in the competition. They have the Coleman medal leader Josh Kennedy, the ever dangerous Jack Darling, Josh Hill, Mark LeCras and Jamie Cripps. The Eagles are just behind the Hawks for total points scored this season and it’s not hard to see why. They face off this week against a Pies defense that has improved dramatically this season but this Eagles forward line will test the likes or Brown, Toovey, Frost, Oxley, Goldsack, Williams and Langdon to the limit. If the Eagles get more insider 50′s then the Pies do it’s hard to see there being any other result then a West Coast win.

As mentioned, the West Coast backline took two big injury hits early in the season that most thought would be critical to the teams success. However as these two teams head into their 15^th game of the season the Eagles rank second for points conceded, a stunning statistic considering those personnel losses. It’s a team defense mentality that has served them well this season but a few players have stepped up and filled the void in spectacular fashion. Jeremy McGovern is the perfect example of this, a player who really hadn’t cemented a spot in this side is now not only one of the first selected but is pushing towards All Australian contention. The forward line they come up against from the Pies has struggled against the top sides in recent weeks so the Eagles will back themselves to restrict the Magpie forwards to a low score.

The Eagles are flying, their ladder position shows that, their rankings show that and quite simply their recent results show that. If there is one are they need to improve upon though to take that next step it’s beating good sides away from home. This matchup gives them just that, a chance to defeat a side that should play finals this season and is along with the Eagles one of the biggest improver’s this season. West Coast may well put up the no change sign at selection this week and after the way they’ve played the last few rounds that would be understandable. No matter what their final 22 is they’ll back themselves to come over here and win this game for sure.

 

 

TIP

The Eagles haven’t beaten Collingwood in Melbourne since 2003. They don’t have a particularly good record at Etihad Stadium and  obviously it’s worse versus the Pies there. But they are in form, they are close to full fitness barring those two injured defenders and they are playing a brand of football that is as dangerous as any in the competition at the moment.

Collingwood on the other hand are playing well also but are coming off the back of three heart breaking losses. The Pies play a completely different brand of football to the Eagles yet both rely on their defences to restrict the opposition but also repel and begin forward attacks.

If the Eagles are allowed time and space to move the ball they will win this game They are deadly by foot and with that powerful forward line if this becomes a shoot-out there’s only one winner at the end and that isn’t the Pies. You get the feeling though that Collingwood’s luck has to change eventually. You couldn’t fault their effort the last three weeks and their attack on the ball carrier is something the Eagles haven’t seen in a while, that of finals like pressure. If the Pies start well, kick accurately and place that tremendous pressure on the Eagles they can win this game.

MAGPIES BY 8 POINTS.

Pre match Discussion Thread  on the BB – Round 16 – Collingwood vs West Coast - All comments

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