By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
My weekly match previews return for 2010 bigger and better than ever. This year, I’m looking to expand these previews and build the audience that reads them. As a result, I’ll be incorporating new sections such as ‘Fantasy Advice’ and ‘Dave’s Soapbox’ which can be seen below. Hopefully you all continue to enjoy my work. This is a hobby for me, but one I take quite seriously. It requires a lot of work and research, which I’m sure you all appreciate.

And what better way to kick off 2010 than with a preview of this week’s Match of the Round, Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood, Sunday @ Etihad Stadium.

On the surface, this is a battle between 3rd and 4th on the ladder from 2009. Both sides were knocked out in the preliminary final round. However, delving deeper into the matchup, this is a battle between the 2 form sides over the pre-season competition. The Doggies went undefeated throughout the NAB Cup, eventually winning the $180,000 prize money on offer by winning the competition. Collingwood were knocked out in Round 1 of the Cup by 1 point to St.Kilda, however went on to post 3 very convincing victories in the following practice games.

Each side has had an active off-season, recruiting high-profile names to fill obvious voids in the line-ups. Therefore, this makes this clash all the more interesting. Ultimately, it is a battle between the 2 competitors to Geelong and St.Kilda dominance. Both sides have been strong over the last 3 years, but continually fall down at the final hurdle. Strong recruiting over pre-season has both camps buzzing that they are now in the position to take the next step and win an illusive flag.

There is much to like about Western Bulldogs. Their pre-season form has proven that they are incredibly skilled and talented. They can win the hard contested ball, tackle hard, yet also move it with efficiency and hit targets. It is rare to see a team with such a good inside game, yet also such a polished running game. No wonder the odds for a Doggie premiership continue to drop. 900 people attended the teams season launch last week (as opposed to 300 for Carlton), and the Bulldog Bandwagon is at full capacity.

At the other end of town, Collingwood have publically signalled their intention to go all the way this year. Coach Mick Malthouse has claimed that this team is possibly better than the 2002 team that made the Grand Final. Although the buzz around Collingwood is slightly more contained, there is no doubt a very confident feeling that the list is now at a stage where it is mature enough to challenge Geelong and St.Kilda.

Recent History

These 2 sides played the last home and away game of 2010, so you don’t have to look too far back to get a gauge on how these teams match-up. This game was an extremely interesting one. Collingwood were in 3rd spot, and as long as they did not lose by more than 23 points, would hold that position. Amazingly, the Bulldogs won by 24, claiming 3rd spot.

It was a funny game to watch. It was obvious both sides wanted the win. Yet it was more apparent that both sides wanted no injuries leading into the finals. It was an amazingly open and free-flowing game, which was entertaining to watch, but lacked that contested feel.

Collingwood played well, but ultimately could not match the outside game of the Bulldogs. Boyd was fantastic with 35 disposals, whilst Brad Johnson kicked 4 goals. Hargrave also belted an out of form Paul Medhurst and had 31 disposals (including 19 marks). Heath Shaw was perhaps Collingwood’s best with 34 disposals, though he did have responsibility for Brad Johnson defensively.

Perhaps it is better to go back 7 rounds to Round 15, which is when these 2 clubs first met in 2009. Collingwood won a nail-biter by 1 point after having a 6 goal lead at 3 quarter time. The Bulldogs came home hard, but Dale Thomas kicked a sealer ensuring a 1 point victory.

The Round 15 game was played more in a style which Collingwood will look to execute this Sunday. They choked the Bulldog run for 3 quarters, but also took the game on themselves. Hargrave was again dominant with 11 marks and 35 disposals on Paul Medhurst, whilst Swan and Didak did the job for Collingwood amassing 34 and 33 disposals each. This was not enough for Swan to get a brownlow vote however, despite the fact he also kicked 2 goals. Didak got the 3 votes, Davis the 2 and Lake 1. Davis kicked 4 goals, whilst Lake held Anthony goal-less for the first time in his career.

At the selection table:

Despite not playing a pre-season game, Brad Johnson has put his hand up for selection for the Western Bulldogs. He has put in a big week on the track. If he plays, it will be his 350th game.

Mitch Hahn also looks set to play despite his eye fracture sustained in a sickening collision with Barry Hall in the NAB Cup Grand Final.

However Nathan Eagleton and Callan Ward look unlikely to play.

Collingwood has close to a full list to choose from. Wood and Dick will miss the majority of the first half of the year, whilst Rusling continues his recovery at VFL level. Paul Medhurst is seemingly over his ankle issues and looks very fit.

Each side will welcome new faces to the line-up.

Obviously, the star recruit over summer was Barry Hall. Despite being 33 years old, Big Barry is looking mighty sharp and seems to be that missing link the Doggies have been searching for. His NAB Cup form was electrifying, capped by a 7 goal man of the match performance in the Grand Final.

The critics have criticised the Bulldogs for recruiting Barry, but I applaud the Doggies for taking the punt. He is perfect for them. The speed and precision in which they move the ball is tailor made for a presence like Hall up forward. Plus he is going to draw attention away from guys like Murphy and Brad Johnson who have been too undersized to play key posts in big finals in the past.

The other new face for the Bulldogs will be Brodie Moles, who was recruited as a rookie after been a Geelong listed played in 2009. He is mature aged, meaning he is ready-made for AFL. The potential absence of Eagleton and Ward opens up a spot. Moles had a terrific NAB Cup. He is hard at it, runs the lines and is keen to impress.

For Collingwood, the much anticipated debuts of Luke Ball and Darren Jolly will be the headline act. The combination of a quality tap ruckman and an experienced in and under is going to really improve the Magpie midfield. Scott Pendlebury, Josh Fraser and Paul Medhurst will also return to the side following their absences from the preliminary final against Geelong last year.

Both Ball and Jolly have had terrific pre-seasons and will be very keen to impress early.

Tactics & Matchups

From a Collingwood perspective, I believe there are 2 ways to approach the Bulldogs.

Strategy 1 is the St.Kilda model which unravelled the Bulldogs on 2 occasions last year. This method involves putting a lot of pressure on the Bulldogs coming out of defence. The Saints pressed up when the Bulldogs had the ball in defence and put a lot of pressure on the ball carrier. This stifled the Bulldogs run and carry. The doggies initiate a lot of their run out of defence, so putting this to a halt choked up the entire game-plan.

Collingwood employed this style of game in Round 15 last year to good use. However, the Bulldogs were still able to run out the game stronger.

Strategy 2 is the Carlton methodology which basically tries to beat the Bulldogs at their own game. Carlton opened the game up and went head to head in the midfield. Carlton won by 43 points in Round 5 last year.

Collingwood’s best chance I feel is to stifle the run. Collingwood is typically a good clearance side, and the addition of Ball and Jolly really improves this dimension. Force a lot of ball-ups, play man on man, press the Bulldogs when they have the ball in defence. Force them to take risks to run the ball through. The Doggies are well equipped to do this, so tackling pressure and accountability will be a key.

Western Bulldogs Forward Line:

Hall v Prestigiacomo – Presti will get first crack at Big Bad Bustling Bulldog Barry. He has a good record against Barry, however I doubt any defender will be able to stop him if he gets the sort of delivery he was receiving through the NAB Cup. Presti will utilise the services of Maxwell who will try and zone off his opponent to cover Hall. Barry is making his debut for the Bulldogs and is in stellar form. It is going to be a terrific matchup as Prestigiacomo is a fantastic matchup for Hall.

Brad Johnson v H.Shaw – Heath typically gets the job against Brad Johnson and tries to run off him. He has done this to great effect in the past; however in round 22 Johnson was able to kick 4 goals. Shaw’s role expanded into the midfield throughout the pre-season, however I think he will start Round 1 down back against the smiling assassin. Johnson has had no pre-season so may be rusty. Collingwood may really try to play through Heath Shaw against a potentially rusty Johnson.

Higgins v Toovey – Shaun Higgins is a jet. Seemingly over his groin issues, he is one of the most dangerous Bulldogs players. I toiled over his correct matchup, but I think Toovey should get the role as he has the pace to go with him. Higgins has a habit of kicking goals, so must be monitored closely.

Akermanis v Ben Johnson – Ben Johnson has played on Aka in the past well, so will probably be used in this role again. I feel Johnson’s spot in the side is less and less secure, so playing well is essential for him. He gets his spot in the Round 1 side because he has pace and a defensive capacity. Both essential features against the Western Bulldogs. Akermanis was the leading goal-kicker for the Doggies last year and is looking sharp early in 2010.

Minson v Leigh Brown – Big Will is the backup ruck, but will rest forward. Leigh Brown spent the majority of his pre-season playing forward, however I think he will be cast back into the role of a defender to cater for Minson. When Minson is off or in the ruck, Brown could himself go forward and look to add a bit of defensive pressure up there.

Hahn v Maxwell – Hahn is one of the most underrated Bulldog players. His toughness and presence makes him so important to their success. However, with Barry Hall up forward, Hahn no longer has to play as the make-shift tall, and can now become a very dangerous 3rd forward option. Maxwell is well suited to this style of opponent and will look to zone off to cover for Barry Hall. This is the way Nick plays and he is the master at it. Hahn will have a slight cloud over him after his fractured eye socket incident in the NAB Cup final, but will most likely play.

Murphy v O’Brien – Murphy is another one who will benefit from the presence of Barry Hall. For so long, Murphy has had to play as a make-shift Centre Half Forward. However, at his height he has never been able to influence big games. He will be given much more freedom. Harry is a good matchup for him as he has the pace and agility to match. O’Brien has been one of the best performed over the pre-season for Collingwood.

Midfield:

Swan v Boyd: These 2 usually square off head to head in the centre. Expect both to rack up big numbers.

Didak v Picken: Picken has now established himself as the Bulldogs number 1 tagger and is most likely to go to Collingwood’s most dangerous player in Alan Didak. Didak has proven in the past to be ‘taggable’, so the challenge for him in 2010 is to learn to break a tight tag. Picken is young but as tough as they come. It will be a real challenge for Didak first up.

Ball v Cross – Again, this matchup is likely to be head to head. This will be a really defining battle. Clearances will be so crucial, and each player is essentially the number 1 clearance player for their side. I’m sure the Western Bulldogs will be cautious of Ball in his first game for Collingwood, so will likely watch him closely. Ball has a lot to prove after a long pre-season.

Griffen v Pendlebury – Though I can’t see this matchup eventuating, the relative contributions of each player to their respective teams should be compared. Both are the ‘cream’ in their side’s midfield and have the ability to make everything look slow motion. Pendlebury has had a massive pre-season following a full recovery from a broken leg sustained towards the end of 2009. Griffen looked very sharp throughout the NAB Cup and looks ready to have his most consistent year to date. Pendlebury’s importance to Collingwood should not be understated. He was the Magpie’s leading clearance player last year, which is an achievement considering he is essentially an outside type player. With Luke Ball in the side, Pendlebury can sit more outside and use his finishing skills to spot up targets inside 50. Griffen on the other hand promises so much, but I don’t think he has fully delivered on his talent just yet. This is a scary thought because we have all seen how good he can be.

Cooney v O’Bree – I think Shane will be asked to play a more defensive oriented role with Luke Ball now taking over the reigns as the number 1 clearance player. Many are tipping Cooney to re-find his 2008 form where he won the Brownlow medal, so he is another Collingwood will have to watch to win this game.

Collingwood Forward Line

Anthony v Lake – Lake has Jack’s measure, holding him goal-less in round 15 last year. Lake is realistically the perfect matchup for a player like Anthony who does not have extreme pace, height or strength. Lake has his measure in all 3 of these categories. Therefore, Jack Anthony has to find another string to his bow to be effective. This may mean leading Lake wide, which takes him out of the play. Considering Lake won so much of the ball last time these sides met, this ability to lead Lake wide could open up 1 on 1 opportunities for Cloke on the smaller Morris. The other alternative for Anthony is to lead high up the ground, but I doubt Lake will follow. Still, it allows Jack to get into the game and he could provide a strong presence. Even if Jack leads wide, he is still a legitimate chance to kick goals as he is such an accurate set shot.

Cloke v Morris – Morris is an underrated defender and continually gets jobs on bigger opponents. Despite all of Cloke’s flaws, he still remains Collingwood’s most important forward. If Cloke is on and firing, then Collingwood is hard to beat. At 190cm, Morris is undersized to play on Cloke. However, he is a fierce competitor and plays much taller. Travis Cloke is so important for Collingwood on Sunday. He needs to have more scoreboard impact and he needs to use his height advantage. This is why I suggest perhaps sacrificing Jack Anthony as it may ensure Cloke gets the opportunity 1 on 1 with Morris.

Davis v Harbrow – Leon Davis is coming off a career best season, where he received All-Australian honours. However, he failed to impress in the finals series. This means he again has a lot to prove in 2010. Harbrow is also coming off a career best season and is now establishing himself as one of the league’s best small defenders. Harbrow will run off Davis, which is concerning because Leon is not known for his accountability. However, if Leon is able to start off the game strong, then Harbrow will be forced to play much tighter.

Medhurst v Hargrave – As mentioned earlier in the preview, Hargrave has a terrific record on Medhurst. However, Paul was injured right through the 2009 season. Paul has a lot to prove and has had a terrific pre-season. What is important is that Medhurst does not allow Hargrave to take 15 marks and win 30 possessions. This will be a crucial match-up as Collingwood rely on Medhurst to be a 50 goal a year player.

Gilbee v Thomas – I am pencilling in Dale Thomas to have a career defining year where he will finally begin to realise his talent and find consistency. However, for round 1 I have him playing as a defensive forward on Lindsay Gilbee. Gilbee is so damaging off the half back line. His foot skills are second to none. Dale played a terrific game on Josh Drummond last year in this defensive role. I also expect Dale to play a lot on the ball, possibly in a run with role on Griffen. When Thomas is playing midfield, Tarkyn Lockyer may get this defensive role on Gilbee. As I said earlier, the Doggies produce so much run off half back. Therefore stopping Gilbee is so important.

Rucks:

Jolly v Hudson – Both are terrific tap ruckmen. Jolly over the pre-season has put a lot of work into pushing forward and kicking goals. I think this is an important role as the Magpies would love to see a ruckman kicking a goal a game. Hudson has had a good pre-season, as has Jolly. It is going to be a terrific match-up. Given that so much is going to hinge on which team can win the clearances, the ruck battle is going to be crucial.

Fantasy Prospects

As this is round 1, a few guys to keep an eye on are:

- Brodie Moles – At a rookie price, he looks set to debut. Job security is an issue, and he only plays in the midfield where there are other options. But at a mature age and in a quality midfield, you can lock him in for 65 points a round.

- Scott Pendlebury – Should start the year in fine form. If you want a premium who could match Swan early, Pendlebury could be your guy as he should sneak under the radar.

- Matthew Boyd – One of the most consistent Dream Teamers going around. In and under midfielders typically score well against Collingwood, and he will most likely go head to head against Swan. Lock him in for around 110.

- Luke Ball – Underpriced and will start the year big. Will take 10 tackles on Sunday.

- Adam Cooney – Simply put, Collingwood have no one to stop him and he is looking much fitter this year.

- Robert Murphy – With Barry Hall in the side, he is going to be freed up. May play closer to goal or play with freedom through the middle. Either way, the focus is not on him anymore and he should score well. Is underpriced.

- Barry Hall – A lot of people are taking the punt, so join in the bandwagon. I don’t think he is going to be a huge scorer, but the Doggies are so skilful that they are going to spot him up on 4 occasions a game. That’s about 50 points just there.

The Wrap Up

Collingwood have a tough draw this year. It doesn’t come any tougher than Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium in Round 1 following the high of a NAB Cup win. But there should be no excuses at Collingwood in 2010. To win the flag this year, the Pies have to beat the best. With Melbourne, St.Kilda and Hawthorn in the forthcoming rounds, the Pies cannot afford to lose to all the better sides. Otherwise they will find themselves 1 win and 3 losses and languishing in the bottom half of the ladder. Beating some of the better sides will make an early statement to the football world. It will also enshrine a sense of belief in the playing group.

The Western Bulldogs have had 2 weeks to recover from their NAB Cup premiership. They now have to re-motivate and re-focus on the 2010 Home and Away season. They have a tough match first up and must ensure that their hard work over the off-season is worthwhile.

The winner of this game will shorten in the premiership odds immediately. It is a really important first up game. I for one can’t wait for Sunday to roll along.

Western Bulldogs by 15 points.

DaVe’s soapbox – Gary Ablett.

In this section, I will tackle the hot topic of the week and have my say. The biggest talking point in the media revolves around whether Gary Ablett will move to the Goldcoast at the year’s end. He will undeniably be on more money.

Personally, I believe he should go. It is hard to say he is disloyal and abandoning the Geelong Football Club as he has been the key player in 2 premierships, has won a Brownlow and given his heart and soul for the club for the entirety of his career to date.

Making the move to the Gold Coast is a smart career move. He gets paid more, becomes the pinup boy for the competition and has less pressure as the side is not expected to succeed early. He also gets to play with his brother again.

If he rejects the Gold Coast offer, then he is a better man than me. If someone came up to me and offered me double the money to do exactly the same thing, I would leave in a heartbeat.

I hope he stays a Cat, because I hate to see the Gold Coast use their power to take the best players in the league to play for a side that is 5 years off a flag. I want to see the good players in the finals. But if he leaves, I can’t blame him.

Thank-you for reading, I hope you enjoyed.