By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86

For the 2nd week in a row I preview a clash between 1st and 2nd on the ladder. Collingwood no doubt earnt some respect last week with a comfortable win over the in-form Fremantle. However, Geelong reminded the competition how good they are, dishing out a thrashing over Brisbane at the Gabba.

Collingwood host Geelong at the MCG this Friday night in what the media is building up as a blockbuster between the 2 premiership favourites. Ultimately, for each side, this is no more than a home and away match and an opportunity to cement a top of the table position. But no doubt it does carry an added bit of interest considering it is a near sell-out and Collingwood are shaping as Geelong’s greatest threat in 2010.

Geelong has been here before. Every year a new threat has emerged and the media has built the game up as a premiership defining battle. Interestingly, the result in the home and away season typically is reversed come finals time. Last year, the Saints beat the Cats in the home and away season, yet lost the Grand Finals. In 2008, the Cats beat the Hawks but lost the big one. In 2007, Port Adelaide surprised everyone with a Round 21 upset, yet lost by over 100 on Grand Final day. So if the Cats do happen to lose the clash this year, I hardly believe it is a sign of the end of a dynasty.

From the point of view of a Collingwood fan, I also hope that the Magpies treat this game as any other. We all saw Collingwood in 2008 dish out a thumping of Geelong. From that point on, Collingwood never was able to regain that sort of form, yet Geelong went on to bigger and better things. That means if anyone is sore from the trip to Perth, they should not be risked. The rotation of senior players should continue as well.

Last year, Geelong famously left out Steve Johnson in the clash against St.Kilda. Despite a loss, the football world knew Geelong still had an ace left in the deck.

Despite the fact that both clubs will be trying to play down this clash, it does not subtract away from the fact that I am bloody excited about this game. It should be an absolute cracker, and there are so many reasons why I can suggest either team will win.

The Formline

Collingwood’s form cannot be disputed. The last month in particular has been amazing and it is hard to see many cracks. Geelong has also had a fantastic 3 weeks following the shock loss to Carlton in Round 5. It is no coincidence that the return of Scarlett to the side in Round 6 has been a catalyst for this richer vein of form.

Geelong is leading the competition for disposals, which is always a healthy sign for the Cats. Unlike other teams who tend to over-possess, Geelong are able to use a high disposal rate to run teams off their legs. The Cats are also leading the way for points scored from kick-ins. They also lead the way for total points scored.

The biggest statistic for Collingwood is that it leads the competition for tackles. Nathan Buckley pointed out 2 years ago that Collingwood is the sort of side that is so reliant on tackling. If the Pies are down 1% in their hunger for tackling, then they can look very ordinary. The Pies have had over 90 tackles in each of the last 2 games. In that famous victory against Geelong in 2008, the Pies had 85. So no doubt tackling is a key indicator for Collingwood, and it is something they are doing very well right now.

Recent History

Much has been made about Geelong’s 73 point thumping of Collingwood in the preliminary final last year. That game was truly an indication of where Collingwood was at towards the end of the 2009 season. I have absolutely no doubt that Collingwood entered trade and draft weeks with that game firmly in mind, and responded by taking 2 senior players to harden up the midfield. I suppose the acquisition of Jolly and Ball will be well and truly tested this Friday night as they were recruited to be influential against teams like Geelong.

Ablett and Joel Corey were very damaging on that night, each picking up 34 disposals, whilst Chapman was at his absolute best with 5 goals. Ablett also scored 3 goals in a best afield display.

You have to go back to Round 3 in 2009 for the last home and away meeting between these 2 sides. Geelong won that game by 27 points, with Ablett again dominant with 37 disposals. However that was only good enough to get him the 1 vote. Chapman was named best afield with a 4 goal and 35 disposal performance, whilst Steve Johnson polled 2 votes for his 3 goal effort.

So no doubt that Geelong has responded ferociously following the 88 point to Collingwood in 2008.

At the Selection Table and Injury News.

Geelong is likely to regain James Kelly and Podsiadly who were rested from the Brisbane clash. It will most likely be Mitch Duncan and Simon Hogan who will make way, unless Geelong pulls any other selection surprises.

Mark Thompson has made mention about how hard the GABBA surface is and that players pull up sore following games at that venue. So Thompson may elect to rest anyone who is feeling some soreness.

Joel Corey and Brad Ottens remain on the sidelines, as does Max Rooke.

Collingwood has close to a full list to choose from, and selection has never been tougher for Malthouse. Playing in the VFL last week were Fraser, Prestigiacomo, Lockyer, Dick and Leigh Brown. Medhurst and Wellingham were out injured.

Medhurst remains unlikely as he did not train earlier in the week. However the form of Presti and Fraser will come into strong contention, despite the impressive form of Nathan Brown and Cameron Wood.

If Medhurst is unable to pass a fitness test, then Jack Anthony may hold his spot. I think Malthouse would love to have Wellingham back in the side given his footspeed and strong early season form. Luke Ball hurt his knee last week so there may be some doubt over his fitness. Fingers crossed he is right.

I think we’ll see Fraser, Wellingham and Prestiacomo come in for Wood, Macaffer and Nathan Brown.

Given Geelong will most likely play the 3 talls, the temptation will be to play 3 key defenders. I think this would be a mistake as Hawkins will back up ruck and Podsiadly will lead high. Carlton was successful by playing Walker on Hawkins and playing him attackingly. I think Collingwood should do the same or use Maxwell on the 3rd tall.

A look at Geelong.

The thing about Geelong is that you know they will come out to attack. Even if the game is slipping away, they will back in their midfield to get on top and will back in their structures. This worked against Essendon and Hawthorn, but failed against Fremantle and Carlton. They back Ablett, Bartel, Selwood and Chapman to win the midfield contests and they back their defence to generate run regardless of how much pressure they are under.

Carlton simply went head to head against Geelong and won the midfield battle. Geelong didn’t look to shut down the Carlton midfield, they instead tried to swing the momentum. Their best form of defence is attack. And they have the class through the middle to beat any side.

Carlton was able to win the clearances. They were also able to run off the 3 tall forwards Geelong played and expose Blake around the ground. No doubt Collingwood will look to do something similar.

The other key for Collingwood is shutting down Geelong from kick-ins. Collingwood set up a tight zone defence which has been close to inpenetratable. However, Josh Hunt has been a huge weapon for the Cats from kick-ins, having only turned it over once this year. Once Collingwood’s zone is penetrated, scoring against the Pies has been easy. Therefore, if Geelong is able to pin-point targets from kick-ins, then Collingwood’s zone defence may begin to look flimsy.

Must Stop

When planning for Geelong, there are 2 players I think you need to stop. It’s easier said than done. Personally, I rate them both as high. Their names are Paul Chapman and Gary Ablett. In fact, if you were to ask me to chose between Ablett and Chapman, I would be unable to decide. Ablett may get 40 disposals a week, but 10 will be pretty cheap. Chapman on the other hand gets 30 disposals but every one is damaging.

Gary Ablett – Collingwood has no tight taggers. Geelong are managing Ablett a bit this year and using him quite a lot up forward. Finding a good match-up for him is impossible. There is no one in the AFL that can match him both in the midfield and up forward.

Collingwood will play Ablett as they did Chris Judd. Judd had 40 disposals, but his kicking efficiency was around the 60% mark. No doubt the Pies will zone off him and look to put pressure on. I think Wellingham will have the main responsibility for running with him in the midfield, or Ben Johnson if Wellingham is unavailable. Either will look to expose Ablett going the other way.

When Gaz goes forward, generally Steve Johnson or Chapman goes onto the ball. Therefore, I would be using Harry O’Brien on him. Harry will take Steve Johnson initially, but the Collingwood defence will have to be flexible. Ablett will pick up 40 possessions, but Collingwood will aim to use his opponent when going into attack, and look to limit his influence up forward. If Ablett has to go into defence to pick up a few cheap possessions, Malthouse will be happy with that.

Paul Chapman – Just about my favourite player in the league. He is playing a lot in the midfield this year and is tearing teams to shreds. Again, Collingwood lacks a suitable matchup. Perhaps Shaw or Maxwell take him whilst he is up forward, and Luke Ball or O’Bree look to take account of him around stoppages.

Considering Geelong has little reliance on guys like Mooney or Hawkins to kick bags, its guys like Chapman who can pop up and kick 3-5 goals.

Other Cats of Interest

Joel Selwood – So much will come down to stoppages. If Collingwood is any hope, it needs to shut down Geelong in the centre clearance department especially. This is where Selwood is so good as he puts his head over it and if he doesn’t win the ball, he earns a free kick. He reminds me so much of Luke Ball in his earlier days. In fact, the matchup just sold itself. Luke Ball will take responsibility for Selwood around the stoppages. Joel started the season a bit slower as he found himself attracting defensive tags. He will get no tight tag on Friday, but no doubt Collingwood will target him as a key player to stop.

Matthew Scarlett – He is the general down back. Since he has returned, the Cats have won the last 3 games. He provides the biggest test to Chris Dawes in his short career. Either that, or Scarlett will go onto Jack Anthony if he plays. Scarlett has absolutely closed down Jack in the last few encounters. Either way, Scarlett not only holds the defence together, but has the capacity to make himself dangerous in attack.

Steve Johnson – He is back in form. He kicked 6 goals last week against Brisbane, 2 against Sydney and 5 against Richmond. He also dobbed 6 against Pt.Adelaide in Round 4. Doubts over his fitness pre-season were an over-reaction. He is still one of the most dangerous small forwards in the league. His midfield time has been a bit limited this year, but with the 3 big talls up forward, he has plenty to crumb off. Harry O’Brien will take the matchup to start off with, but I’m sure Toovey, Johnson and Heath Shaw will be called upon to mind him as the Geelong forward line rotates with Ablett, Bartel and Chapman.

Matthew Stokes – Was impressive in his return game last week and has a record of playing good against Collingwood. Stokes is mighty fit and is very fresh. To be honest, the extra 7 weeks he had off will be a benefit long term for the club as he will hit the 2nd half of the year feeling quite good and should have his confidence back. Toovey will get the match-up to start off I believe and must be very careful. Stokes has genuine speed and is crafty around goal.

James Podsiadly – He will most likely return. J-Pod has been the most dangerous forward for Geelong and will present Malthouse with a few dilemmas. I would not be playing 3 tall defenders to cover the 3 Geelong talls. Instead, I would be using Presti on Podsiadly, and Reid or Nathan Brown (whichever one survives) on Mooney. Then use Maxwell on Hawkins. With Podsiadly in the side, the Cats have tended to ignore Hawkins going forward. Plus Hawkins will be asked to back-up ruck. Therefore I’d be using Maxwell to peel off or play loose when Hawkins rucks.

Corey Enright – He was really good last week and is one of the underrated small defenders of the comp. He shuts down opponents and picks up 30 disposals a week, making him a vital component in most attacks from half-back. He may go onto Didak or Davis or even Thomas.

A look at Collingwood

It will all be about the forward pressure this week for Collingwood. The temptation will be there for Malthouse to drop Jack Anthony and bring in another small to play as a defensive forward. Geelong looks most vulnerable when their run off half back is under pressure.

Collingwood’s forward pressure is first rate and the best in the comp right now. However, as I said earlier, Josh Hunt’s precise kicking may have a real influence on the game and Collingwood’s zone.

The side that ran out against Geelong in the preliminary final last year looked drastically different to what will run out this Friday.

Jolly, Ball, Pendlebury, Fraser, Medhurst, Nathan Brown, Ben Reid and Chris Dawes were not there last year. Most of the names above will play Friday night. Prestigiacomo, Swan and Davis were also quite sore running into the prelim. You’re talking about a third of the side different in the space of half a year. No doubt the current Collingwood line-up looks far more imposing. The ability to move out older guys like Leigh Brown and Lockyer is a good example of the club moving forward. The early season form of Beams and Sidebottom also has all Collingwood fans really excited.

Collingwood has the greatest spread of goal-kickers in the AFL. That’s where the biggest threat is to opposition teams. However, Collingwood’s midfielders are running forward of the ball, leaving the defence wide open. This may work against easier sides…but will it work against Geelong?

No doubt Collingwood is in fine form, but if there is one area of concern it is defence. Sides are kicking good scores against Collingwood. As I said above, this is largely due to Collingwood’s extremely attacking game-plan. Despite a lot of goals been conceded in the last month, no side has got within 6 goals of the Pies. Further, the Pies have been without Prestigiacomo for a month. Geelong has seen first hand what losing your best full back does to a side. Collingwood has done remarkably well to introduce 2 younger players to the side to hold up this position.

Must Stop

Alan Didak – The talk above was about Steve Johnson, but Alan Didak is on par right now. Didak is in terrific form. He, along with Davis, have moved predominantly up forward again. The form of Ball, Wellingham and Thomas in the middle allows the Magpies to leave Didak up forward, which is also freeing him up from tight tags. I honestly think that if Didak kicks 3 or 4 goals, then Collingwood will win, whereas if Johnson kicks 4 then the Cats will win. These guys are the class up forward and are so creative. It will be most likely Corey Enright who will take this matchup.

Darren Jolly – Typically, Geelong have had a huge edge in the ruck in the past encounters between these 2 sides. This time, Ottens will not be playing, and Collingwood will benefit from the services of Darren Jolly who is back in form. Blake has a huge job on Jolly and will shoulder the majority of the ruck-work in the absence of Ottens. Collingwood will no doubt be looking at the ruck as an area in which they can get an advantage. Last week, despite the dominance of Sandilands, Collingwood smashed the Dockers in the clearances. This week, the Magpie’s midfield should benefit from first use if Jolly is able to get on top.

The big worry for Geelong is Jolly’s influence around the ground. Josh Fraser or Wood also have quite a say around the ground and will trouble Blake. Hawkins will be used in the ruck and will look to push forward to upset the Collingwood ruck-division. However, the Magpies would fancy Jolly to monster Hawkins in this position.

Other Pies of Interest

Travis Cloke – Is emerging as Collingwood’s most important player. Along with Heath Shaw, I think Cloke is one of the barometers of the side. He is now kicking goals and is benefitting from having talls such as Dawes and the resting ruckmen alongside him. The media have been quick to point out that Cloke only faced McPhee last week and will face stronger opposition in Harry Taylor this week. This is true. However, Tarrant was used on Cloke for large chunks last Friday and he too was absolutely monstered by Cloke. Taylor has a good record against Cloke, but it is so essential for Collingwood’s cause that Cloke has an impact.

Heath Shaw – Without a guy like Max Rooke in the side, I don’t think Geelong will put a super defensive forward tag onto Shaw. Shannon Byrnes may look to try and make him accountable. Geelong will instead try and free up a Milburn of Wojcinski down in their defence. This is the way Heath Shaw likes it, and his run out of half-back is so important to Collingwood. If it were a finals game, I think Geelong would be more inclined to tight tag him. But like I said, given this is a home and away game, Geelong will focus on their own structures at this point.

Scott Pendlebury – I actually think Ling will get the job on Pendles. Ling typically goes to Swan, but has often struggled given Swan’s high rotating rate, and the fact he plays multiple positions. His speed also worries Ling a bit. Pendlebury has really stepped up over the last month, and strikes me as the sort of player Ling enjoys tagging. Given Collingwood’s high midfield rotations, Ling will do a number of different roles. Pendlebury was missing for the preliminary final last year, so will be super keen to impress.

Leon Davis – His form is still not fully back, but his forward pressure is as good as ever. It will be super important this week. I do not care if Leon does not even accumulate 1 disposal, all that matters is that he tackles and chases like a man possessed. That is how Collingwood will win this game if it is able to. Leon becomes very important. Of course a goal or 2 would be very handy as well.

Steele Sidebottom – Geelong would fancy themselves to be capable of covering any tall options Collingwood throw up there. However, its the wealth of smalls that may worry the Cats a bit. The Geelong small defenders are very capable, but like zoning off and winning the ball themselves. We saw Betts, Garlett and Yarran tear the Geelong defence up. So it could be guys like Steele Sidebottom who are able to pop up and cause headaches. Like Leon Davis, Steele’s greatest asset as a forward is his tackling. He is a fantastic tackler and his forward pressure is top notch.

Ben Johnson – I could’ve put Dane Swan down for my last player analysis, but I thought I’d throw up an unsung hero. Johnson has been one of the most impressive stories of 2010 to date. His pace will be essential as he’ll be responsible for one of the quicker Geelong midfielders. But he’ll also add a lot attackingly. You want the ball in his hands around the 50 metre arc as his awkward looking kicking style never misses a lead-up player or a flying shot on goal on the run.

Fantasy Advice

I’ve cracked into the top 800 in Dream Team, and my supercoach is flying so it’s all good news from my end.

Unfortunately I don’t have Gary Ablett, so I’m bracing for the worst this week. Set him captain without a thought in the world. He could score 200! Otherwise, Jimmy Bartel could be a good option, despite a modest home and away record against Collingwood. Jimmy returned to form last week and could be set for a good second half of the year.

Tread cautiously with Swan in case he does get the Ling tag, although I think he’ll still do enough to beat it. Medhurst is no certainty to return and he is not presenting as a fantastic fantasy option this year so it could be time to trade him. Although your side will be strengthened by the return of J-Pod.

Heath Shaw should bounce back from his low score last week and should escape the tag.

The game is on live this Friday night, so it should be a cracking dream team night.

DaVe’s Soapbox

Michael Johnson is the latest player to be caught with a prohibited substance. The debate has arisen over players who have been handed down a strike by AFL drug testers and remain anonymous. Ultimately, I have no problem with the drug testing regime implemented by WADA and the AFL, however it does worry me that guys on their 2nd strike remain un-named, whilst a guy like Michael Johnson is publicly ridiculed for being caught.

My major concern is that a team could realistically trade a player on their second strike without opposition clubs knowing. I think that any player on their second strike should be named and shamed. They should get away with it once as a warning, but AFL clubs should be well aware of any players who are on their last strike.

It’s a shame the topic of drugs is back on the agenda…but ultimately the AFL playing group is quite good and its a relatively low strike-rate considering how many young players are involved in the game.

The Wrap-Up

If it were Tennis, then Geelong would still be ranked number 1. I do firmly believe however that Collingwood has now taken the mantle of number 2 and the greatest challenger. St.Kilda and Western Bulldogs are still strong contenders as well and I am not writing them off, but as it stands the Magpies are looking very strong.

Many have said this game means more to Collingwood than Geelong. I don’t buy in to that. I think it means the same for both sides. It is about making a statement to the comp. If the Cat’s win, then they have disposed of yet another challenger. If the Pies win, then they make the statement to the league that they have beaten the best. But at the end of the day, it is only 4 points up for grabs. So it means the same for both clubs.

Given Collingwood is a game ahead, it is equally important to Geelong to cement their spot in the top 2 given the evenness of the competition. Regardless, I will not be writing off Collingwood’s premiership chances if they lose on Friday night. However, it is very important they put up a good show. Another humiliation will be confidence sapping.

Both sides are coming from tough interstate trips, though Collingwood gets an extra day break.

Ultimately, the game can go either way, so I’m leaving tipping up to you guys. I can’t wait!