By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86

So we are already half way through season 2010. This is the point of the year where I typically start making predictions as I feel that it is silly to make bold calls too early in the year. From Round 11 onwards, the ladder starts taking true form, and a side that has carried form to this point is no longer a fluke.

That said, the ladder is incredibly even. Melbourne, who sit in 13th spot are only 1 game outside the 8. The top 3 has a familiar look about it, and so does the bottom 3. The bookends of the ladder are unlikely to change.

In Round 12, Melbourne face Collingwood in the traditional Queen’s Birthday Monday clash. This is a crunch game for both sides. A win for Collingwood definitely secures a top 4 place in the short term. Melbourne on the other hand would be eyeing off an unlikely top 8 position, and a win against Collingwood would give them the belief to make it.

Collingwood will go in favourites. But let’s be honest…this game tends to mean a bit more to Melbourne than it does Collingwood. For Melbourne, this is a rare chance to play in front of a big crowd, on the big stage against a good side. This is their big money making day of the year, and Melbourne cannot afford a poor showing. I am loathe to say it is Melbourne’s Grand Final because I absolutely hate that term, but I have no doubt that if Melbourne could lock in just 1 win every year, they would choose this match.

So expect a fired up Demons side on Monday. It is a good test for Collingwood, as the Magpies’ form is patchy and they can ill afford to be caught off guard.

There is definitely plenty to like about the 2010 Demons. Their top 3 picks from the 09 draft in particular seem like beauties. I’ve been especially impressed with young Gysberts who I’ll give a bit of a wrap later in the preview. Perhaps the top 8 is an unrealistic goal, but it’s good to see they are giving it a crack. Atleast Melbourne fans can go to a game of footy this year and think their team is a show. It’s about time a winning culture was developed at the club, and they are showing plenty of heart.

Collingwood on the other hand are starting to field their best 22 again after a month of minor injury niggles. They remain in 2nd spot on the ladder and have a fairly good draw ahead in the next month.

The Form-line

Despite Melbourne’s impressive start to the year, they have won 1 of their last 5 games. But they have faced Geelong, Carlton and Western Bulldogs in that time, and had a good win against Port Adelaide. They have been very competitive in most matches.

What I’ve found in the last few weeks is that Melbourne has started slowly. From the 2nd quarter onwards, the game tends to even up and Melbourne rally. This in itself is an improvement considering last year they would’ve given up and it is a sign of better fitness. Nevertheless, it is important Melbourne learns to get good starts against good sides.

Collingwood’s form hasn’t been fantastic over the last month either. They have won 3 of their last 5. The win against Western Bulldogs last week was a good one, however I was disappointed with the last quarter fade out, and I thought the first quarter was quite sloppy. There is much improvement left in the Magpies I feel. It was the 2nd week in a row which Collingwood faded out in the last quarter. Melbourne would feel that if they can hold onto Collingwood early, they are a chance to cause an upset.

Recent History

Despite the fact that Melbourne typically lifts when they play Collingwood, the Magpies have won their last 5 encounters against the Demons. However, as we saw in Round 2, there have been a few close calls.

Melbourne came close to pulling off a major upset in Round 2. Ricky Petterd, who was best on ground for the day, dropped a mark in the goal-square in the dying seconds of the game, which ensured the Magpies won by 1 solitary point.

Despite the fact that Collingwood took the 4 points, any neutral observer of that game would have felt that Melbourne were the deserving team on the day. Dayne Beams was one of Collingwood’s best with 27 disposals, whilst Pendlebury kicked 2 goals and 9 tackles. For Melbourne, Aaron Davey was the most damaging player with 27 disposals (23 of them kicks), whilst Petterd and Green kicked 4 and 3 goals respectively. Jamar, who played as the solitary ruckman, was dominant with 36 hitouts.

Last year’s Queen’s Birthday day was a little more one sided. A 7 goal to 0 opening term put the game beyond the Demon’s reach very early. Scott Pendlebury picked up the 3 votes with a stunning 39 disposal display. Sylvia was Melbourne’s best with 32 disposals and 3 goals which earnt him the 2 votes. Brad Dick was the surprise packet of the day, polling the 1 vote with his 5 goal effort. Alan Didak had 33 disposals and 2 goals, whilst Swan and Shaw were both up over the 30 possession mark. Collingwood eventually winning by 66 points.

At the Selection Table

Starting with Melbourne:

The Dee’s will be hopeful James Frawley passes his fitness test after he was a late withdrawal last week. In my opinion, Frawley has been one of the real stories of 2010 and must be close to All Australian selection to this point. He has turned out to be a great find.

They will also be sweating on the availability of Colin Sylvia who was hospitalised after a blood clot was found in his toe. Hopefully the extra break will ensure he is fit to play, but I would not blame Melbourne for playing cautious.

Nathan Jones and James McDonald also had a hamstring complaints following last weeks game against Carlton and face fitness tests, but look doubtful at this stage.

At VFL level, Lynden Dunn kicked 8 goals, whilst Danny Hughes (who impressed me earlier in the year) is re-staking his claim. Another impressive youngster Jordie McKenzie will come into contention as well.

There is a bit of talk about Jack Watts getting dropped. I hope the Demons do no do this. I think Watts has been going along ok, but was simply not suited to the wet last week. I think he needs more exposure. With a split round imminent, the Demons can rest him then, but he deserves a few chances given how tough it is to play CHF in a young side and at such a young age.

Turning to Collingwood:

The Pies have a clean bill of health at the moment. Brad Dick, who impressed on Queen’s Birthday last year, is finally ready to come into selection contention, although he may be asked to continue to regain match fitness at VFL level. His availability also coincides with the return to form of Leon Davis as a forward pocket, so Dick is not really required at this point in time.

The backline is where all the interest is. Nathan Brown was completely dominant at VFL level last week, and it will again be a question for Malthouse whether he leaves Presti in, or continues to develop Brown and Reid. Reid had a good game last week so looks unlikely to be dropped. Presti however has been very important and has been good in the past fortnight.

Lockyer continues to press for selection, as does Jaxson Barham, Luke Round and Cameron Wood. Simon Buckley also returned last week and performed quite well, so could be a surprise selection against his former side. Chris Dawes is likely to miss another week considering Leigh Brown was pretty handy against Western Bulldogs and Dawes was rested from the VFL team. Jack Anthony did little in very wet conditions to earn a recall.

I think Malthouse will make a change. He has done so nearly every week this year. Someone may miss due to a ‘calf’ injury. I’d expect minimal changes this week however as the list is pretty much completely fit.

Tactics

Melbourne came out in Round 2 with a nothing to lose attitude. They have been one of the only sides this year to completely run through the Collingwood zone and rebound off their half back line with ease. They exhibited terrific skills, able to pinpoint 30 metre passes, which is the Achilles heel of the Magpies game-plan.

If Melbourne is any chance of winning on Monday, they must do the same. The bigger build up and pressure of the game may force them into their shell a bit. If this happens, Collingwood win jump away to a quick lead like Geelong and Carlton have against the Demons in recent weeks.

Collingwood will undoubtedly look to impose their bigger bodies on the young Melbourne midfield. If Jolly can break even this time with Jamar, then it might be hard to Melbourne to win around the stoppages. Further, in Round 2 Collingwood had Cloke, Davis, Jolly, Ball and Pendlebury in very average form. All have been playing much better.

They will ask the question of Melbourne’s young defence. Melbourne will have to take the Pies on across half back, but to do some means running through a disciplined zone. The Magpies will aim to have their tackling pressure at full steam, and look to put a stack of pressure on the ball carriers.

Players to Watch

Melbourne

Must Stop: Aaron Davey

Davey is the star player of the team. There are very few in the AFL that could claim they have better foot-skills than Davey. I would say he is the best field kick right now. His pace makes him incredibly hard to stop as well. He was held very well last week by Carrazzo. It was interesting to see Carlton put all their focus on roughing up Davey, who in turn got very frustrated and gave away free kicks. He was held to only 13 touches. Collingwood should look to do the same. Only Wellingham and Johnson have enough foot-speed to match him. I’d try and free up Johnson across half back. Wellingham’s form has been marginally improving, but I think he should get a close checking role on Davey. Otherwise it could be an opportunity to bring in Barham for a complete tight tag.

Collingwood is unlikely to tight tag anyone, but I think Wellingham will have primary responsibility for him in the general field of play. Expect Davey to be quite prominent.

Others of Interest

Jordan Gysberts – His first 2 games have been terrific. It’s been a baptism of fire for the pick 11 on the 2009 draft, facing Geelong and Carlton in his first 2 games, and now Collingwood. It has been enough to earn him a rising star nomination. What I’ve liked about him is how cool he is under pressure. He seems to be one of those players that has time, and he makes good decisions. He knows how to win the ball as well, picking up 27 disposals last week, and 26 touches against Geelong. Melbourne would be very happy with their first 3 picks and have a midfield which will be a force in the not so distant future.

Jack Grimes – Grimes is backing up from a superb year in 2009, and has now become a vital cog in the Melbourne backline. He is perhaps Melbourne’s version of Heath Shaw, and as such should be closely monitored. It would be a good idea to use perhaps Sidebottom in a defensive job on Grimes to try and make him accountable. Last week Carlton used Houlihan on Grimes, and Houlihan was arguably best on ground with 4 goals. Grimes still managed 25 disposals despite the tag. Otherwise if Lockyer is brought back, this is the job I’d give him.

Mark Jamar – He is the sole ruckman for Melbourne. At times, the Demons have thrown Sylvia up in the ruck just to give him a chop-out. Nevertheless, Jamar is having a terrific year. But no doubt Collingwood have to look at Jamar, and run him around til he has no more to give. With Leigh Brown in the side, there are 3 potential ruck choices to rotate on him. Jamar’s ruck-work is top notch. His hitouts find his young midfielders and give them first use. I thought Jolly was terrific last week against Hudson, and has an equally big job quelling Jamar’s influence in the ruck this week.

Cale Morton – He has returned from his early season knee injury, and has returned to good form. He has silky smooth skills and his height makes him an awkward matchup. The demons will hope he develops into a really good utility, something of the Cameron Bruce or Brendon Goddard ilk. If unchecked, Morton has the potential to set up a lot of play, and he is a good reader of the game. Might be a case for putting Macaffer onto Morton, as he has been getting jobs on opposition utility players.

Colin Sylvia – As I said earlier, his position is not assured this week following the blood clot discovered in his toe. Nevertheless, if he plays he will be one of Melbourne’s most dangerous players. He loves playing Collingwood, and enjoys a big stage. His form has been patchy this year, but when he is up and going his side does better. He is another who Macaffer may go onto, or even a head to head battle with Swan.

Brad Green – Such an important player to the Melbourne side. I think he’ll stay forward and try and make a Collingwood defender like Maxwell or Shaw accountable. Last week he took Gibbs and was able to score against him. Such a tough matchup and a true servant of the Demons.

Collingwood

Must Stop: Heath Shaw

Melbourne saw in Round 2 that a great strategy against Collingwood is to forward tag Heath Shaw, and try to score goals through his direct opponent. This time around, Melbourne will be without Ricky Petterd who did the job to perfection in Round 2.

Heater’s form has been patchy, but all in all he has been ok. Though not winning the ball, I feel as if his defensive work has improved, and he is playing much tighter on his opponent. He is also receiving a lot of attention and dealing with it quite well. The fact he attracts attention means guys like Johnson and O’Brien are really burning off half back. Even Dane Swan regularly goes across half back to generate run if Heath is being tagged out of it. Melbourne may look at a guy like Clint Bartram or even Matthew Bate to do the job.

Others of Interest

Brent Macaffer – I just want to highlight this guy here. I still don’t think he has done enough to cement his spot, and I think he has a way to go, but I want to pay some kudos to Brent for the unsung role he is performing. He basically goes onto dangerous opposition utilities and makes them accountable. His roles on guys like Chapman have been credible. Macaffer has the ability to play forward, midfield or defence, so he adds so much versatility to the side. Malthouse is in need of a utility, and that is why Macaffer has been given every chance. As demonstrated above, Macaffer has a few decent matchups, so his role is beginning to look more and more secure. What he needs to do now is work on his set shot kicking. He is typically a lovely kick and a natural forward, but it seems to have evaded him lately.

Alan Didak – So often a star against Melbourne. I think when it comes to assessing this game, Melbourne will consider Didak as their primary target. Bartram seems most likely to get the job. Didak has been good over the last few months and is sneaking under the radar a bit this year. Having Medhurst and Davis back really gives him the freedom to spend more time on the ball.

Scott Pendlebury – He won the best on field medal last week for his 33 possession effort against the Doggies. He has put together some very solid football since ANZAC Day, at which point he was slightly out of form. He is the true class of the Collingwood midfield, and I would not be surprised to see teams continue to set tight tags on him.

Leon Davis – His return to form last week was very timely in a must win game for Collingwood. He is so important to the Collingwood cause because his defensive pressure was top notch. Given Collingwood relies so heavily on forward pressure, Davis has become one of the most important players to the side. The fact he kicked 3 goals last week was a huge bonus.

Dale Thomas – Probably Collingwood’s most consistent player of 2010. He was also one of Collingwood’s best in the 1 point win against Melbourne in Round 2. I want to give a special wrap to Dale for his last 5 minutes in the game last week. When the Doggies were coming, I thought he was the one who stood up and ensured the game would be won. He was everywhere, and had so much of the ball in the dying 5 minutes. His tackling and work-rate has improved so much.

Dayne Beams – Was one of Collingwood’s best in Round 2, and should have a good game again. Collingwood’s midfield runs much deeper than Melbourne, so it is guys like Beams who are the 2nd string midfielders that should benefit. Melbourne will put the majority of their focus onto guys like Swan and Pendlebury, and will simply run out of options to cover Beams. His goal-kicking on the run has been a feature this year, and he has the ability to put the game out of reach this week.

DaVe’s Soapbox – Holding the Ballllllllllllll

Every now and then I don’t mind having a go at the umpires when I feel they deserve it. Lately, I have become very disillusioned with the holding the ball interpretation. Perhaps my frustration should be directed at the rules committee.

It seems prior opportunity or incorrect disposal are things of the past. If tackled, a player seems more than able to simply drop the ball and say it got knocked out in the tackle. Yet, when a player tries to win his own ball, and gets tackled immediately, he is pinged for not making ‘a genuine attempt to get rid of it’. It’s way to hot on the ball carrier. For years now, the smarter and better players have had the ability to hold the ball in a tackle to ensure a stoppage. Now this is illegal as a player has to find a way to get rid of it, even if one arm is pinned and he is lying on the floor.

There is no doubt this rule speeds up the game. Instead of forcing a stoppage, the ball has to continually be knocked out. Given the enormous amounts of players around the ball, this can at times be impossible.

I’d much prefer to see players who dispose of the ball incorrectly penalised. I’d much rather reward the guy who keeps possession of the ball than allow a guy who drops it at the first sign of a tackle.

Fantasy Advice

Hook into Jordan Gysberts this week if you can. If you have been holding onto Luke Shuey in the hope he will return, get rid of him to Gysberts because Shuey has glandular fever. I’m also considering doing it from Dustin Martin because it makes me more money and Gysberts looks pretty secure in the team.

Dane Swan and Pendlebury have been in typically good form Dream Team wise and must be considered captaincy material this week. I’m expecting Heath Shaw to bounce back from his Round 2 humiliation this week as well.

With David Hille down, Jolly could be considered, but I think I’d stick to Cox or Sandilands. Keep an eye out for Leon Davis who is just ridiculously cheap but is not scoring well enough to be considered. He bounced back to form last week, and this may be the catalyst for him to recapture his Dream Team best. If Brad Dick returns, it may mean more midfield time as well.

The Wrap Up

I haven’t been to a game in a while due to exams, but I think I’ll make this one. Round 2 was really exciting, and I’m expecting the Demons to display the same heart on Monday. This time around, I am expecting Collingwood to treat Melbourne with more respect, and they should be a bit too strong considering a few injury concerns to top line Melbourne players.

My plea to Melbourne fans would be to rock up this week. In fairness, Melbourne fans typically do come out in numbers for Queen’s Birthday, it is usually the Collingwood fans who go missing a bit. But the crowds have been unacceptable for the last 2 years. This game does mean a fair bit to Melbourne, so every Melbourne fans should turn up if they want to ensure this fixture is kept. Given Collingwood’s top 2 position, there is no excuse for this game not attracting more than 70K.

I’m going to break my tradition this week, and tip the Pies.

Collingwood by 24.