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Learn from wasted picks, Woods !

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 3:01 pm
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Wonka wrote:
Rd10.1998_11.1#36 wrote:

“Oh you IDIOT!! Why didn’t you bet on red instead of black??? It’s SOOOO obvious red was going to come up. Look, that guy over there just hit the jackpot on the pokies, why didn’t you play them instead, moron!?”

The draft is NOT random.

If you think it's random, why don't you tell Collingwood to sack all its recruiters and save the money?


Yes and no. Drafting players requires skill and judgement, yes, but there are a lot of unknowns and unforeseeable factors, and a lot of criticism is really just hindsight posing as wisdom. In any of these discussions, I think we have to acknowledge from the start that there are plenty of cases in which the right decision (given the information available at the time) ends up having the wrong outcome. Quite a lot of time, in the words of the great philosopher Tony Abbott, "shit happens".

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Pies2016 



Joined: 12 Sep 2014


PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2020 3:58 pm
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Maybe if a few posters spent as much time reviewing the drafting ( and trading ) history of the other 17 clubs, then they might realise we aren’t the only ones who don’t get it right every time.
I forget the exact numbers but it’s something less than 5 % of drafted players who go on to play more than 100 senior games over their entire AFL career.
You are never going to get it right every time, so the trick is to simply get it right more often than the majority of your competitors.
Once drafted, then it becomes about player development and that’s a totally different topic again.
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Rd10.1998_11.1#36 

rd10.1998_11.1#36


Joined: 18 Jul 2018
Location: Sevilla, Spain

PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:43 am
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^^ At the end of the 2017 season, the average number of games played by AFL players was 19. Less than 1 in 3 made it to 50, <1 in 5 to 100, <1 in 10 to 150 and <1 in 20 to 200 games. NB These stats are for players who played at least 1 game - so your 5% stat could still be correct overall

Wonka wrote:
Rd10.1998_11.1#36 wrote:

“Oh you IDIOT!! Why didn’t you bet on red instead of black??? It’s SOOOO obvious red was going to come up. Look, that guy over there just hit the jackpot on the pokies, why didn’t you play them instead, moron!?”


The draft is NOT random.

If you think it's random, why don't you tell Collingwood to sack all its recruiters and save the money?


It's a gamble. The draft is like betting on the Melbourne Cup... you can study the form, the odds, the jockey, the trainer, the track, the weather... but backing a favourite is no guarantee of winning and sometimes a Prince of Penzance pops up at 100:1

Over time, someone who studies the form guide will pick more winners than a mug punter or the office sweepstakes - that's why clubs have recruiters. You still get the Nathan Freemans, Chris Egans and Scott Gumbletons.

Trading Beams back in was a gamble which the club decided could help them win a premiership now - something drafting a junior wasn't going to do. Of course we all know that gamble didn't pay off.

For the record, I was against the trade; if only I'd taken the trouble to tell the club what to do as you suggested I could have saved all this wailing and gnashing of teeth. Sorry guy.

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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:05 am
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Born to Pie wrote:
WhyPhilWhy? wrote:
So no actual examples then - just some maybes and perhapses.


Everyone can make up their own minds, but for the Pies in the last 5 years the draft itself has been a bust to date with the exception of Stephenson.

Over the 5 year period we've traded 4 first rounders for Treloar & Beams, so 4 picks for one gem and a bust. Only one other gem (Stevo) and no other draft picks in the 5 years appear as gems just yet, but time will tell.


This is not atypical for teams in contention for the flag. Its kind of what you are supposed to do. are you forgetting all of the father sons and academy players though.

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:40 am
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E wrote:
...
fantasy land. Pies tried that. They tried to get lynch as well. Ion the end it was the Beams trade or nothing. Calculated gamble. Could have put us over the top. Turns out, we could have used a top 10 caliber mid. shame he couldn't get up....

I love how people think you can just blink and do whatever makes the most sense on paper.

Laughable....

You know for a fact that the Pies tried every single possibility (of which there were many, most of them not listed here yet) other than dumping the draft picks for Beams, do you? How do you know this? Did Ned give you a personal phone call swearing that was the case?

DTM said that Freo did it (though I haven't checked). Why is it possible for Freo to do one of the many possible things one can do in that situation, but, according to you, it was impossible for the Pies to do any of those things? Maybe Freo "just blinked and did whatever made the most sense".
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Born to Pie 

Born to Pie


Joined: 20 Sep 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:47 pm
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Pies2016 wrote:
Maybe if a few posters spent as much time reviewing the drafting ( and trading ) history of the other 17 clubs, then they might realise we aren’t the only ones who don’t get it right every time.


If you mean me, the answer is yes I have reviewed the other club, and for what it's worth I am happy with our process on trading and drafting.

The whole point is to discuss on this forum, as you do in "General Discussion" my 5 year list was to provide providential proof to assist those discussions.

The reality of the trade and draft periods are about to change due to no games and potentially smaller lists (and maybe less clubs), in the short term adding more importance to recent trading/drafting efforts.

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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:00 pm
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Born to Pie wrote:
...
If you mean me, the answer is yes I have reviewed the other club, and for what it's worth I am happy with our process on trading and drafting.
...

Another thing is: trading and drafting aren't the same thing.

e.g. Hine is believed to be much better at drafting than trading. (That's why the club shifted his role back to just drafting.)


Last edited by K on Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Bucks5 Capricorn

Nicky D - Parting the red sea


Joined: 23 Mar 2002


PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:07 pm
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K - I hope that last post was a mistake. Surely Hine is still involved in drafting and spotting emerging talent, not trading?
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K 



Joined: 09 Sep 2011


PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:13 pm
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Oops... Mistake, B5. I'll correct it. Yes, he's sticking to drafting. ("List management" is Guy's role.)

He's probably not a very good poker player.
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Rd10.1998_11.1#36 

rd10.1998_11.1#36


Joined: 18 Jul 2018
Location: Sevilla, Spain

PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:25 pm
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K wrote:
Why is it possible for Freo to do one of the many possible things one can do in that situation, but, according to you, it was impossible for the Pies to do any of those things? Maybe Freo "just blinked and did whatever made the most sense"


If you mean the 2019 draft, Freo did a 3-way trade to move from pick 10 to pick 8... which is great if you have pick 10 to start with.

Sounds like you're saying Beams was a bust so anything would have been better?

In 2018 Freo's highest draft pick was 17 (1 above us) which they used on Sam Sturt who played /drumroll... 0 games in 2019

Worth remembering that Beams averaged 25 disposals, 0.6 goals and 3.9 I50s in the 9 games he played. Would that have helped in the finals?

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Last edited by Rd10.1998_11.1#36 on Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:35 am
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K wrote:
E wrote:
...
fantasy land. Pies tried that. They tried to get lynch as well. Ion the end it was the Beams trade or nothing. Calculated gamble. Could have put us over the top. Turns out, we could have used a top 10 caliber mid. shame he couldn't get up....

I love how people think you can just blink and do whatever makes the most sense on paper.

Laughable....

You know for a fact that the Pies tried every single possibility (of which there were many, most of them not listed here yet) other than dumping the draft picks for Beams, do you? How do you know this? Did Ned give you a personal phone call swearing that was the case?

DTM said that Freo did it (though I haven't checked). Why is it possible for Freo to do one of the many possible things one can do in that situation, but, according to you, it was impossible for the Pies to do any of those things? Maybe Freo "just blinked and did whatever made the most sense".


Freo were at the bottom of the ladder so started with better assets and disnt need to hang on to every single member of their best 22 so that thewy could continue to contend for a flag the following year. It works really well for teams with lots of assets and teams

GWS did it a few years ago, but they clearly lost the trade (until you take into account the fact that they had two academy players that were mid to low first rounders - as it meant they got three elite players instead of 2). Then they won the trade. BUT, it was also a home run for the team they traded with (who got two top 10 picks in exchange for a pick 3 IIRC).

You cant just say, well Freo did it or GWS did it, so why couldn't collingwood.

Based on the assets we had, and our list and salary cap limits due to pushing for a flag, it was impossible to imagine us trading up the pick we used on beams in a way we would keep it and not use it on Quaynor. since we got quaynore by using second and third round picks, i reckon the Beams first round pick was illusory. Not the same as just giving up a pickl for nothing.

I know you know this and are just being argumentative!

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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:36 am
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[quote="Rd10.1998_11.1#36"]
K wrote:
E wrote:
Why is it possible for Freo to do one of the many possible things one can do in that situation, but, according to you, it was impossible for the Pies to do any of those things? Maybe Freo "just blinked and did whatever made the most sense"


If you mean the 2019 draft, Freo did a 3-way trade to move from pick 10 to pick 8... which is great if you have pick 10 to start with.

Sounds like you're saying Beams was a bust so anything would have been better?

In 2018 Freo's highest draft pick was 17 (1 above us) which they used on Sam Sturt who played /drumroll... 0 games in 2019

Worth remembering that Beams averaged 25 disposals, 0.6 goals and 3.9 I50s in the 9 games he played. Would that have helped in the finals?


i know you tried to minimize the quotation, but for the record, these were not my words. I'm on your side buddy!

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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:46 am
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K wrote:
Born to Pie wrote:
...
If you mean me, the answer is yes I have reviewed the other club, and for what it's worth I am happy with our process on trading and drafting.
...

Another thing is: trading and drafting aren't the same thing.

e.g. Hine is believed to be much better at drafting than trading. (That's why the club shifted his role back to just drafting.)


the people who are draft scouts are a special breed i agree.

But list management is a skill that requires you to look at trading and drafting and salary cap all together.

Hine's job is to spot talent and rank players for need and relative to each other.

The real secret sauce is in list management, where you make decisions regarding all of the ways you attract talent and build a list.

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Rd10.1998_11.1#36 

rd10.1998_11.1#36


Joined: 18 Jul 2018
Location: Sevilla, Spain

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:50 pm
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E wrote:
i know you tried to minimize the quotation, but for the record, these were not my words


Yeh sorry I stuffed up the quote; have fixed it now

You did the exact same thing when quoting me, not sure if accidental or deliberate Very Happy

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E 



Joined: 05 May 2010


PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:06 am
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Rd10.1998_11.1#36 wrote:
E wrote:
i know you tried to minimize the quotation, but for the record, these were not my words


Yeh sorry I stuffed up the quote; have fixed it now

You did the exact same thing when quoting me, not sure if accidental or deliberate Very Happy


I'm definitely not clever enough to do that on purpose.....

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