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Coronavirus II : The Virus Strikes Back

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:40 pm
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Dark Beanie, K posted some detailed information on that subject of percentage of positives in testing a couple of days ago. As I understand it, Victoria remains well within (or below) the target maximum.
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:58 pm
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112 and 113: Two men in their 80s have died in Victoria.

317 new cases in Victoria. The net increase is 302 (15 cases have been reclassified). 28 are linked to known cases and 289 are underinvestigation.

There are 2,128 active cases (103 recoveries in the last 24 hours and 2 deaths). There were 28,607 tests, so we’re at about a 1.1% positive test result rate (although query quite how many tests were processed to yield those numbers - I assume there’s some delay but we don’t really know in any statistically useful way).

There are 109 people in hospital in Victoria (up 4 from yesterday) and 29 of those are in intensive care. See https://covidlive.com.au/vic

From the ABC blog:

Quote:
Brett Sutton is breaking down some of those figures now.

157 cases are now linked to Al-Taqwa college
Six cases are linked to HWL Ebsworth lawyers in Melbourne
Thirty-seven cases are linked to Somerville retail services in Tottenham
Thirty-one cases are linked to the Menarock aged care facility in Essendon
Five cases are linked to St Basil's homes for the aged in Fawkner.
Twenty-three cases are linked to Glendale aged care in Werribee
Twenty-one cases are listed to Estia health aged care
Twenty-nine cases are now linked to the JBS abattoir in Brooklyn

He says "over 160 outbreaks" are currently being monitored.
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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:53 pm
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Victoria

Confirmed Cases:
- 1). Hume = 491
- 2). Wyndham = 398
- 3). Melbourne = 364
- 4). Brimbank = 349
- 5). Moonee Valley = 340
- 6). Moreland = 248
- 7). Banyule = 178
- 8]. Whittlesea = 169
- 9). Casey = 161
- 10). Melton = 161

Active Cases:
- 1). Wyndham = 265
- 2). Hume = 251
- 3). Melbourne = 225
- 4). Moonee Valley = 219
- 5). Brimbank = 180
- 6). Moreland = 118
- 7). Whittlesea = 83
- 8]. Melton = 82
- 9). Banyule = 79
- 10). Darebin = 66

New Cases Today:
- 1). Wyndham = 36
- 2). Brimbank = 34
- 3). Melbourne = 30
- 4). Hume = 27
- 5). Moonee Valley = 21
- 6). Banyule = 16
- 7). Whittlesea = 16
- 8]. Melton = 16
- 9). Moreland = 14
- 10). Darebin = 11

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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:08 pm
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Pies4shaw wrote:
Dark Beanie, K posted some detailed information on that subject of percentage of positives in testing a couple of days ago. As I understand it, Victoria remains well within (or below) the target maximum.

Throughout May to mid-June, we were seeing positive test rates of approximately 0.1% on average.

Since Mid-June, it's been climbing steadily and in the last 7 days we've seen positive tests rates of anywhere between 0.7% to 1.2%.

The target maximum is 3%. Anything above that, and we've essentially lost control of the situation.

Positive test rates in Victoria since March 23.

https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-positive-test-rate/vic

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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:08 pm
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I think we should either nuke or do stage 4 lockdown, enforced by the army, to all the south eastern suburbs except Glen Iris.
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K 



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:09 pm
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In the US...

A Second Coronavirus Death Surge Is Coming

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/

"There is no mystery in the number of Americans dying from COVID-19.

Despite political leaders trivializing the pandemic, deaths are rising again: The seven-day average for deaths per day has now jumped by more than 200 since July 6, according to data compiled by the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic. ...

The deaths are not happening in unpredictable places. Rather, people are dying at higher rates where there are lots of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations: in Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California, as well as a host of smaller southern states that all rushed to open up.

The deaths are also not happening in an unpredictable amount of time after the new outbreaks emerged. Simply look at the curves yourself. Cases began to rise on June 16; a week later, hospitalizations began to rise. Two weeks after that—21 days after cases rose—states began to report more deaths. That’s the exact number of days that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated from the onset of symptoms to the reporting of a death.
...

Even with cases surging, if hospitalizations were not rising, that might suggest that this outbreak might be less deadly than the spring’s. But hospitalization data maintained by the COVID Tracking Project suggested otherwise as early as June 23. On that date, hospitalizations began to tick up across the South and West, and they have not stopped.
...

No other country in the world has attempted what the U.S. appears to be stumbling into. Right now, many, many communities have huge numbers of infections. When other countries reached this kind of takeoff point for viral spread, they took drastic measures. Although a few states like California are rolling back reopening, most American states are adamant about opening into the teeth of the outbreak. And this level of outbreak will not stay neatly within a governor’s political boundaries. There’s no way to win this state by state, and yet that’s exactly what we’re attempting.
...

The lack of containment by American authorities has resulted in not only lost lives, but also lost businesses, savings accounts, school years, dreams, public trust, friendships. The country cannot get back to normal with a highly transmissible, deadly virus spreading in our communities. There will be no way to just “live with it.” There will only be dying from it for the unlucky, and barely surviving it for the rest of us."
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:21 pm
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Jezza wrote:
Pies4shaw wrote:
Dark Beanie, K posted some detailed information on that subject of percentage of positives in testing a couple of days ago. As I understand it, Victoria remains well within (or below) the target maximum.

Throughout May to mid-June, we were seeing positive test rates of approximately 0.1% on average.

Since Mid-June, it's been climbing steadily and in the last 7 days we've seen positive tests rates of anywhere between 0.7% to 1.2%.

The target maximum is 3%. Anything above that, and we've essentially lost control of the situation.

Positive test rates in Victoria since March 23.

https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-positive-test-rate/vic


Well, yes and no.

Yes that the target maximum is 3%.

The difficulty, though, is understanding what the actual positive test result rate is on a given day. To be precise: the Government tells us how many positive results it recorded in the past 24 hours and how many tests were administered in the past 24 hours. But, since we know there is a delay (test results don't typically return the same day), what we don't know is how many returned results there were that included the 317 new positive cases. For that reason, I think one can only really look at this over something a like a weekly average, otherwise we see apparent increases and decreases in result rates that are probably more to do with a discrepancy between the number of tests performed and the number of results returned on a given day.

If you look at the last 8 days, for example, there were 217,322 tests and 1,808 positive test results, which is about .083%. I don't think one can discern a meaningful trend until one sees the next 8 days of data.

Put another way - the daily percentage that COVID Live is reporting (and which we are using) is entirely spurious. To render it at all meaningful, you've got to look at it pon something other than a day-by-day basis since the figures reported daily bear no relationship to each other.

I accept, of course, that the 8 days of results and 8 days of reporting I've referred to in that calculation are not reporting results of the same testing, either. They are, though, reporting what is likely to be a significant overlap in testing (because the delay in getting results is, as I understand it, only a couple of days). So, my calculation is still incorrect - but it is not so entirely wrong as the one COVID Live performs.
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eddiesmith Taurus

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Joined: 23 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:43 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
I think we should either nuke or do stage 4 lockdown, enforced by the army, to all the south eastern suburbs except Glen Iris.


No I was more thinking setting the army up on the eastern side of the city of Melbourne and letting no one from the West or North out.

Enforce stay at home orders for anyone from Melbourne to Mitchell shire and everywhere to the west, let the rest of the state get on with their lives.
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eddiesmith Taurus

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Joined: 23 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:48 pm
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Pies4shaw wrote:

Well, yes and no.

Yes that the target maximum is 3%.

The difficulty, though, is understanding what the actual positive test result rate is on a given day. To be precise: the Government tells us how many positive results it recorded in the past 24 hours and how many tests were administered in the past 24 hours. But, since we know there is a delay (test results don't typically return the same day), what we don't know is how many returned results there were that included the 317 new positive cases. For that reason, I think one can only really look at this over something a like a weekly average, otherwise we see apparent increases and decreases in result rates that are probably more to do with a discrepancy between the number of tests performed and the number of results returned on a given day.

If you look at the last 8 days, for example, there were 217,322 tests and 1,808 positive test results, which is about .083%. I don't think one can discern a meaningful trend until one sees the next 8 days of data.

Put another way - the daily percentage that COVID Live is reporting (and which we are using) is entirely spurious. To render it at all meaningful, you've got to look at it pon something other than a day-by-day basis since the figures reported daily bear no relationship to each other.

I accept, of course, that the 8 days of results and 8 days of reporting I've referred to in that calculation are not reporting results of the same testing, either. They are, though, reporting what is likely to be a significant overlap in testing (because the delay in getting results is, as I understand it, only a couple of days). So, my calculation is still incorrect - but it is not so entirely wrong as the one COVID Live performs.


This is what I've always wondered, which days data are they using when they say how many tests were conducted, is it the day before or is the day of the results? I.e we processed 28,000 tests and got 300 positives or as you say its for different days.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:54 pm
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eddiesmith wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
I think we should either nuke or do stage 4 lockdown, enforced by the army, to all the south eastern suburbs except Glen Iris.


No I was more thinking setting the army up on the eastern side of the city of Melbourne and letting no one from the West or North out.

Enforce stay at home orders for anyone from Melbourne to Mitchell shire and everywhere to the west, let the rest of the state get on with their lives.


Nah, definitely the Sth East, including Toorak, Prahran, Caulfiled, all that area. Make em stay home and turn off their internet and cap their mobile data too.

It's for their own good, weak sickly specimens that they are. Us folk up north are more robust. Razz

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eddiesmith Taurus

Lets get ready to Rumble


Joined: 23 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:59 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
eddiesmith wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
I think we should either nuke or do stage 4 lockdown, enforced by the army, to all the south eastern suburbs except Glen Iris.


No I was more thinking setting the army up on the eastern side of the city of Melbourne and letting no one from the West or North out.

Enforce stay at home orders for anyone from Melbourne to Mitchell shire and everywhere to the west, let the rest of the state get on with their lives.


Nah, definitely the Sth East, including Toorak, Prahran, Caulfiled, all that area. Make em stay home and turn off their internet and cap their mobile data too.

It's for their own good, weak sickly specimens that they are. Us folk up north are more robust. Razz


Fine, we'll nuke the south east, especially the entire electorate of Mulgrave and build a wall around the north and west. Crime for Victoria will drop so low the police can enforce the border and let those inside have their own laws and sort out issues internally!
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:02 pm
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eddiesmith wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
eddiesmith wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
I think we should either nuke or do stage 4 lockdown, enforced by the army, to all the south eastern suburbs except Glen Iris.


No I was more thinking setting the army up on the eastern side of the city of Melbourne and letting no one from the West or North out.

Enforce stay at home orders for anyone from Melbourne to Mitchell shire and everywhere to the west, let the rest of the state get on with their lives.


Nah, definitely the Sth East, including Toorak, Prahran, Caulfiled, all that area. Make em stay home and turn off their internet and cap their mobile data too.

It's for their own good, weak sickly specimens that they are. Us folk up north are more robust. Razz


Fine, we'll nuke the south east, especially the entire electorate of Mulgrave and build a wall around the north and west. Crime for Victoria will drop so low the police can enforce the border and let those inside have their own laws and sort out issues internally!


Sold. Can we make the Sth Australians pay for the wall?

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eddiesmith Taurus

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:06 pm
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Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:20 am
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Latest numbers

Confirmed (Deaths) - Recoveries

USA = 3,619,663 (140,200) - 1,646,698
Brazil = 1,972,072 (75,568) - 1,366,775
India = 979,719 (25,101) - 619,193
Russia = 752,797 (11,937) - 531,692
Peru = 337,724 (12,417) - 226,400
Chile = 321,205 (7,186) - 292,085
Mexico = 317,635 (36,906) - 199,129
South Africa = 311,049 (4,453) - 160,693
UK = 291,911 (45,053) - Unknown
Iran = 267,061 (13,608) - 230,608
...........................................................
Australia = 10,810 (113) - 8,036

13,691,560 confirmed cases
587,950 deaths
8,122,098 recoveries

Australia:
- Confirmed cases = 10,810
---- Victoria = 4,750
---- New South Wales = 3,527
---- Queensland = 1,071
---- Western Australia = 646
---- South Australia = 444
---- Tasmania = 228
---- ACT = 113
---- NT = 31
- Deaths = 113
- Recoveries = 8,036
- Case fatality rate = 1.05%

Active Cases = 4,981,512
- USA = 1,832,765
- Brazil = 529,729
- India = 335,425
- Russia = 209,168
- South Africa = 145,903
- Peru = 98,907
- Colombia = 87,619
- Bangladesh = 86,864
- Mexico = 81,600
- Pakistan = 73,751
............................................
- Australia = 2,210

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Last edited by Jezza on Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:40 am
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AUSTRALIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

9/07/2020 = 9,059 (173) = 1.9%
10/07/2020 = 9,359 (300) = 3.3%
11/07/2020 = 9,553 (194) = 2.1%
12/07/2020 = 9,797 (244) = 2.6%
13/07/2020 = 9,980 (183) = 1.9%
14/07/2020 = 10,251 (271) = 2.7%
15/07/2020 = 10,495 (244) = 2.4%
16/07/2020 = 10,810 (315) = 3.0%

8,036 recovered, 113 deaths.

Cases doubling every 103 days.

1,332 cases of community transmission nationwide.

2,210 active cases.

South Australia and Tasmania have no active cases.

Highest number of cases in a single day since March 29.

VICTORIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

9/07/2020 = 3,098 (156) = 5.3%
10/07/2020 = 3,379 (281) = 9.1%
11/07/2020 = 3,560 (181) = 5.4%
12/07/2020 = 3,799 (239) = 6.7%
13/07/2020 = 3,967 (168) = 4.4%
14/07/2020 = 4,224 (257) = 6.5%
15/07/2020 = 4,448 (224) = 5.3%
16/07/2020 = 4,750 (302) = 6.8%

2,591 recovered, 29 deaths.

Cases doubling every 12 days in Victoria.

902 cases of community transmission in Victoria.

2,128 active cases.

Highest number of cases in a single day since the pandemic started.

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Last edited by Jezza on Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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