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How did the pandemic start?

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How did the pandemic start?
Natural origins
50%
 50%  [ 7 ]
Lab leak
50%
 50%  [ 7 ]
Total Votes : 14

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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:44 pm
Post subject: How did the pandemic start?Reply with quote

It's a question the intelligence community has been divided over, but which way do you lean?
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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:52 pm
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I've gone natural origins. IIRC both SARs and MERs are/were types of Coronaviruses that both had natural origins, crossing from Animals to Humans. That Covid19 is more infectious and deadly than either of those doesn't change that.

While I do think it's entirely possible that Covid19 originated from a lab leak that has been covered up by the Chinese Communist Party, in the absence of clear facts I consider the natural origins theory more plausible.

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think positive Libra

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:24 pm
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Need a different option, biting heads off of live bats is hardly natural! I voted that today, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to learn it was a lab leak
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David Libra

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:29 pm
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I kind of feel like the best answer is "no idea", and that any assertion one way or the other is likely to be mostly a reflection on one's ideological leanings. All I know is that I don't trust anything on this coming from the Chinese government, I don't trust anything from the US intelligence community and I don't find the mainstream press particularly reliable either. And I think it's entirely possible (perhaps not more than 50% likely, but certainly more than a negligible chance) that even the Chinese government has no idea how it originated.
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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:51 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
I've gone natural origins. IIRC both SARs and MERs are/were types of Coronaviruses that both had natural origins, crossing from Animals to Humans. That Covid19 is more infectious and deadly than either of those doesn't change that.

Covid is less deadlier than SARS and MERS if we're talking about fatality rates.

SARS originated from civet cats, while MERS originated from bats but is believed to be transmitted into humans from camels.

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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2021 10:07 pm
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I'll take your word on the fatality rate, but covid19 must clearly be more infectious otherwise we wouldn't be where we are now.
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Jezza Taurus

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2021 10:09 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
I'll take your word on the fatality rate, but covid19 must clearly be more infectious otherwise we wouldn't be where we are now.

Absolutely, it's more infectious.

If the virus was very deadly, it wouldn't spread across the world to this magnitude.

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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2021 10:14 pm
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Good point, it would kill the host before it had a chance to spread.
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pietillidie 



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2021 3:44 am
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There's no logical discipline behind choosing a lab leak. No one sensible chooses an unknown possibility over a known cause. The discipline here is to always take the known simple cause first. That doesn't at all mean you deny other potential causes, but that they can't be entertained over a known simple cause until you have concrete contradictory information.

Also, note that the dissenting voice is an intelligence voice, not a scientific voice. You know, intelligence — that shadowy group of conmen who are never ever held accountable for an endless litany lies, misdirection and even wars, who are essentially paid to lie for a living to keep open political options for those in power.

In contrast, disciplined thinkers who account for their views publicly as a matter of professional practice — scientists — are not the group who entertain the lab leak theory. Much like climate science, any outliers and contrarians you can Google up won't change that. New evidence might, though, but it hasn't materialised yet.

It's no coincidence a US intelligence report gives Biden exactly what he wants: he gets to keep the hammer to wield against China for crowd pleasing purposes without going all in with the conspiracy nutters, plus he gets to hedge his bets in case it actually was a lab leak. It's a no-brainer for him; if I had to deal with all those crazies destabilising the US I too wouldn't explain disciplined thought to them, keeping my options open and hedging my bets instead just like this.

But don't confuse Biden's needs with your own. Not to mention the right answer to the poll is: 'the simplest known cause at this stage is natural origins, so by default I can't choose anything else'.

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roar 



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2021 9:53 am
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Read some more literature and you will see how silly that post is. Lab leak makes more sense.
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pietillidie 



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:23 pm
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roar wrote:
Read some more literature and you will see how silly that post is. Lab leak makes more sense.

It's Saddam's WMDs and climate science rolled into one. 20 years of debate where the usual people employing the usual fist-waving itch in their pants instead of disciplined reasoning were wrong about everything, and you still haven't grown up.

Can you even access all the scientific papers on the subject? If so, how many do you imagine claim a lab leak makes greater sense of the information? It doesn't on currently available evidence, and currently available evidence is what scientists are assessing.

That might change — everyone is keeping the door open here because origins research is notoriously difficult and as we know China is making the process harder — but there is no sign of the necessary contradictory information in the peer-reviewed science at this stage.

Again, the consensus is that the simple known cause still remains the likely cause, with full acknowledgement that alternative explanations such as a lab leak can't be ruled out and should be pursued because they might end up the cause after all.

It's really not that hard. Even the very simplest line of reasoning will do: when the information is unclear, suspect things but don't commit to a position. "I don't trust Chinese officials as far as I could throw them, and a lab leak could happen easily enough, but natural transmission from animals to humans is the common way coronaviruses jump to humans, so I can't say for sure."

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Last edited by pietillidie on Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:08 pm
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I don't suppose there's any danger of you doing a post that isn't condescending and insulting?
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pietillidie 



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:11 pm
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stui magpie wrote:
I don't suppose there's any danger of you doing a post that isn't condescending and insulting?

More condescending than this, or are you unable to keep an even hand?

roar wrote:
Read some more literature and you will see how silly that post is. Lab leak makes more sense.

The rules of condescension only apply to some, don't they? I'm responding in kind. If you're going to declare yourself the moral arbiter, arbitrate fairly.

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stui magpie Gemini

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:47 pm
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pietillidie wrote:
stui magpie wrote:
I don't suppose there's any danger of you doing a post that isn't condescending and insulting?

More condescending than this, or are you unable to keep an even hand?


Maybe re-read your post.

Was it necessary to say some of the things you wrote?

Quote:
20 years of debate where the usual people employing the usual fist-waving itch in their pants instead of disciplined reasoning were wrong about everything, and you still haven't grown up.


You think that's going to sway opinions to your view?

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Pi Gemini



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 09, 2021 12:10 pm
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The only fist waving I see is from this guy.
http://img2.chinadaily.com.cn/images/202107/02/60de6971a310efa1e3abf03b.jpeg

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