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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| eddiesmith wrote: | | But it leaves them vulnerable if someone is absent or their ICAC isn’t toothless and they start dropping 😉 |
Worth keeping in mind that Labor are in a very different position compared with, say, Labor under Gillard or the Coalition after Turnbull lost the leadership spill in 2018 – in those cases, the governments had very little room to move beyond the numbers they had, and losing one seat potentially had disastrous ramifications (hence all the shenanigans with Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper, for instance, or why the Wentworth by-election and Julia Banks' defection were such a big deal). But in this case, should they finish on 76, losing a by-election or two and going into minority is hardly going to be a nightmare for Labor, as they'll still have a stack on relatively friendly crossbenchers to fall back on.
All the same, Albanese would be wise to stay on friendly terms with the crossbench even if their votes aren't needed for now, because three years is a long time and a lot of things can certainly happen.
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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The ABC has decided Richmond (as expected) and Cowper for Labor and the Nationals respectively, so the ALP are now up to 74. Six seats in doubt now, Labor need two.
Apparently Brisbane is starting to break the Greens' way – still a fair bit of counting to go though.
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Was thinking today how the Liberals have effectively wedged themselves on climate change. Can't take it seriously for fear of alienating their base, but can't keep bullshitting the public without alienating the majority of the population and losing votes to the Teals et al.
Happy for them to spend a good deal more time in opposition figuring that one out.
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Looks like Sturt and Deakin are in the bag for the Liberals now. Labor still 2 short of a majority with 4 seats left in play: Lyons, Macnamara, Gilmore and Brisbane. First two still leaning Labor, last two too close to call.
Brisbane looks like it's going to come down to Animal Justice Party preferences. Somewhat amusingly, they gave their second preference on their how-to-vote cards to Labor (in what was undoubtedly a dodgy backroom deal), but the vast majority of their voters seem to have ignored the instructions and preferenced the Greens instead.
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| David wrote: | Was thinking today how the Liberals have effectively wedged themselves on climate change. Can't take it seriously for fear of alienating their base, but can't keep bullshitting the public without alienating the majority of the population and losing votes to the Teals et al.
Happy for them to spend a good deal more time in opposition figuring that one out. |
They are definitely wedged on that, among other things. The harder right factions are in a battle with what's left of the moderates. What they need to do is read the room.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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AEC appears to have called Gilmore and Deakin for Libs.
What's interesting is looking at Voter Turnout in some of the seats. It ranges from mid 60% to high 70%. That's a lot of people not voting.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Definitely not Gilmore – that’s still on a knife’s edge and, if anything, starting to lean slightly towards Labor. I could be wrong but I don’t think the AEC has called any seats yet. (They only do that once every vote has been counted.)
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Lyons is confirmed for Labor. So they're on 75 now with only three seats left in doubt. Brisbane and Gilmore remain an each-way bet; Macnamara looks like it's the one that's most likely to give them majority, but apparently Labor MP Josh Burns is unwilling to claim victory due to internal info he's getting from scrutineers. Not sure how long we're going to have to wait until that's called.
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Ryan is also a knifes edge between the Nats and Greens.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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In other news, it's not easy to lose the moral high ground to Peter Dutton, but Tanya Plibersek seemingly achieved it yesterday:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/26/tanya-plibersek-apologises-unreservedly-for-comparing-peter-dutton-to-voldemort
| Quote: | A spokesperson for Plibersek said she had reached out to Dutton soon after the interview to “unreservedly” apologise, saying she should not have made the remark.
Dutton labelled the comments “unfortunate” but said they were “water off a duck’s back”. “I don’t think you need to be nasty and mean,” he told 2GB radio on Thursday. “I’m not the prettiest bloke on the block but I hope that I’m going to be pretty effective.”
Dutton said he was “not bald by choice” noting he had been diagnosed with a skin condition several years ago. He said people should criticise politicians for their policies and decisions “but when you are going for personal characteristics that’s a different story”. |
Of course the resemblance is uncanny, and I'll be the first to admit I'm partial to the odd "potato" slur. But in the wake of the Will Smith / Chris Rock incident, one gets the impression that unkind remarks about involuntary baldness probably aren't going to go down as well as they once did.
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Good response from Dutton I thought.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| In any event, you'd think that it might be enough of a free kick to focus on the fetid output of his surprisingly small brain. |
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eddiesmith 
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| Imagine if someone said things about Tanya's appearance... |
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