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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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| I just get the feeling ( and that’s all it is ) that when the Pies swapped their second round pick for the swans third rounder for Murray, they didn’t think that BOTH Quaynor and Kelly would be in first round calculations come the end of the 2018 season. |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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And next day (tweet by Jon Ralph):
AFL had made clear last night priority picks not on the table before the first round of the draft. Steve Hocking today on radio didn’t rule it out. Picks after first 10 selections clearly on the table. All fairly confusing
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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| Pies2016 wrote: | | I just get the feeling ( and that’s all it is ) that when the Pies swapped their second round pick for the swans third rounder for Murray, they didn’t think that BOTH Quaynor and Kelly would be in first round calculations come the end of the 2018 season. |
The points difference wouldn’t be huge, but they do both seem to have risen up the rankings.
The club can always trade in another pick for points (subject to have list spots as you can no longer just stockpile points picks), eg trade a future 2nd/3rd for a 2018 2nd/3rd. There will probably be other opportunities that come up in trade period.
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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| MightyMagpie wrote: | | Pies2016 wrote: | | I just get the feeling ( and that’s all it is ) that when the Pies swapped their second round pick for the swans third rounder for Murray, they didn’t think that BOTH Quaynor and Kelly would be in first round calculations come the end of the 2018 season. |
The points difference wouldn’t be huge, but they do both seem to have risen up the rankings.
The club can always trade in another pick for points (subject to have list spots as you can no longer just stockpile points picks), eg trade a future 2nd/3rd for a 2018 2nd/3rd. There will probably be other opportunities that come up in trade period. |
Cheers, I’m sure there’s a way. I think the perfect result at the draft would be securing both Quaynor and Kelly while still having a first rounder to use elsewhere other than on these guys.
Giving up something from the 2019 draft seems one of the likely options to me. |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| Pies2016 wrote: | | MightyMagpie wrote: | | Pies2016 wrote: | | I just get the feeling ( and that’s all it is ) that when the Pies swapped their second round pick for the swans third rounder for Murray, they didn’t think that BOTH Quaynor and Kelly would be in first round calculations come the end of the 2018 season. |
The points difference wouldn’t be huge, but they do both seem to have risen up the rankings.
The club can always trade in another pick for points (subject to have list spots as you can no longer just stockpile points picks), eg trade a future 2nd/3rd for a 2018 2nd/3rd. There will probably be other opportunities that come up in trade period. |
Cheers, I’m sure there’s a way. I think the perfect result at the draft would be securing both Quaynor and Kelly while still having a first rounder to use elsewhere other than on these guys.
Giving up something from the 2019 draft seems one of the likely options to me. |
Agree, the window is well and truly open. Getting quality players in the door at the end of 2018 will be so much more important than end of 2019.
I wouldn't be shocked to learn that we trade picks for May, take Kelly and Quaynor and let the chips fall where they may.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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inxs88
Joined: 17 Aug 2014
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I’m concerned of the secrecy re Murray’s non disclosed “personal reasons” absence. Just get a sense it may be big
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I love the Pies, hate Carlscum |
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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AN_Inkling
Joined: 06 Oct 2007
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Personal issues are often kept a bit quiet.
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Well done boys! |
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WhyPhilWhy?
WhyPhilWhy?
Joined: 09 Oct 2001
Location: Location: Location:
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| Did I hear in today’s commentary that the AFL has allegedly told all Clubs that its hands off on Steven May? |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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UPDATED for Round 22 Ladder.
Hypothetical Draft scenario based on R22 indicative picks (I did these manually) and assuming GCS and CAR get priority picks AT END OF FIRST ROUND. Picks are made and bids are made on FS/NGA players according to rankings in Cal Twomey’s form guide. Free Agent Compensation picks have not been considered for this exercise.
COL picks: 16 (1,067 points), 50 from Sydney (273 points), 52 (246 points), 70 (39 points), 88 (0 points), total 1,625 points.
FIRST ROUND:
1 CAR Sam Walsh
2 GCS Jack Lukosius
3 STK Izak Rankine
4 BRI Max King
5 FRE Bailey Smith
6 WBD Ben King
[7] [ADE bid on Nick Blakey (SYD) matched, 1,644 points less 20% = 1,315 points. SYD pick 14 =1,161 points so points deficit to come off next pick(s).]
[8] 7 ADE Connor Rozee
[9] 8 ESS Jye Caldwell
[10] [NM bid on Isaac Quaynor (COL) matched], 1,395 points less 20% = 1,116 points. COL pick 16 (now 17) = 1,025 points so points deficit to come off next pick(s).]
[11] 9 NM Jackson Hately
[12] [PTA bid on Tarryn Thomas (NM) matched, 1,268 points less 20% = 1,014 points. NM match with subsequent picks.]
[13] 10 PTA Curtis Taylor
[14] 11 GEE Ian Hill
[15] [ADE bid on Rhylee West (WBD) matched, 1,112 points less 20% = 890 points. WBD match with subsequent picks.]
[16] 12 ADE (from MEL) Zak Butters
[17] 13 GWS Riley Collier-Dawkins
[] 14 SYD [Pick points used for Nick Blakey]
[18] 15 HAW Chayce Jones
[] 16 COL [Pick points used for Isaac Quaynor]
[19] [GCS bid on Will Kelly (COL) matched, 948 points less fixed 197 points = 751 points. COL remaining pick value is less, so points deficit to carry over to next year.]
[20] 17 GCS (from WCE) Connor McFadyen
[21] 18 RIC Jez McLennan
[22] 19 CAR Jordan Clark
[23] 20 GCS Xavier Duursma
Still on the board: Luke Valente, Bailey Williams.
A few takeaways:
1. If we match bids for Quaynor and Kelly then our "live" picks in the 2018 draft will likely be at the very end of the draft as we will likely exhaust our points (in the absence of trading in another pick).
2. On current CT rankings, Quaynor is likely to majorly compromise our 2018 first rounder.
3. On current CT rankings, Kelly is likely to compromise our 2019 first rounder (in the absence of trading in another pick) and prevent us participating in the FS/NGS process for 2019 (in the absence of trading in another 2018 pick).
4. There may be merit in looking to move our first rounder up into the top 10 of the first round making it a much more likely "live" pick which would potentially mean getting a high pick draftee, Quaynor and Kelly in 2018. It would compromise our 2019 first and prevent us participating in the FS/NGS process for 2019, but it is open to us to trade that pick and use subsequent 2019 draft picks to satisfy the carry over points deficit.
5. A GCS FA compensation pick for Lynch may dramatically change the situation for Norf.
As always, post any errors you see (I was a bit hungover at the time of writing).
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Crazypie
Joined: 21 May 2018
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Just a thought of Andy Otten from Adelaide... I know he is slow but probably only as slow as Dunn and he kept big jumping Ben brown goalless yesterday and would cost us bugger all... A bit of a 3 years younger goldsack? Nice cheap Backman until the likes of madgen Moore will Kelly cement their spots.
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Go Pies! |
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MightyMagpie
Joined: 04 Jun 2013
Location: WA
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WhyPhilWhy?
WhyPhilWhy?
Joined: 09 Oct 2001
Location: Location: Location:
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| Faz and our first pick for something below 10? |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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| Crazypie wrote: | | Just a thought of Andy Otten from Adelaide... I know he is slow but probably only as slow as Dunn and he kept big jumping Ben brown goalless yesterday and would cost us bugger all... A bit of a 3 years younger goldsack? Nice cheap Backman until the likes of madgen Moore will Kelly cement their spots. |
Always been a fan but I’m now gun shy of anyone off two ACLs |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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| MightyMagpie wrote: | UPDATED for Round 22 Ladder.
Hypothetical Draft scenario based on R22 indicative picks (I did these manually) and assuming GCS and CAR get priority picks AT END OF FIRST ROUND. Picks are made and bids are made on FS/NGA players according to rankings in Cal Twomey’s form guide. Free Agent Compensation picks have not been considered for this exercise.
COL picks: 16 (1,067 points), 50 from Sydney (273 points), 52 (246 points), 70 (39 points), 88 (0 points), total 1,625 points.
FIRST ROUND:
1 CAR Sam Walsh
2 GCS Jack Lukosius
3 STK Izak Rankine
4 BRI Max King
5 FRE Bailey Smith
6 WBD Ben King
[7] [ADE bid on Nick Blakey (SYD) matched, 1,644 points less 20% = 1,315 points. SYD pick 14 =1,161 points so points deficit to come off next pick(s).]
[8] 7 ADE Connor Rozee
[9] 8 ESS Jye Caldwell
[10] [NM bid on Isaac Quaynor (COL) matched], 1,395 points less 20% = 1,116 points. COL pick 16 (now 17) = 1,025 points so points deficit to come off next pick(s).]
[11] 9 NM Jackson Hately
[12] [PTA bid on Tarryn Thomas (NM) matched, 1,268 points less 20% = 1,014 points. NM match with subsequent picks.]
[13] 10 PTA Curtis Taylor
[14] 11 GEE Ian Hill
[15] [ADE bid on Rhylee West (WBD) matched, 1,112 points less 20% = 890 points. WBD match with subsequent picks.]
[16] 12 ADE (from MEL) Zak Butters
[17] 13 GWS Riley Collier-Dawkins
[] 14 SYD [Pick points used for Nick Blakey]
[18] 15 HAW Chayce Jones
[] 16 COL [Pick points used for Isaac Quaynor]
[19] [GCS bid on Will Kelly (COL) matched, 948 points less fixed 197 points = 751 points. COL remaining pick value is less, so points deficit to carry over to next year.]
[20] 17 GCS (from WCE) Connor McFadyen
[21] 18 RIC Jez McLennan
[22] 19 CAR Jordan Clark
[23] 20 GCS Xavier Duursma
Still on the board: Luke Valente, Bailey Williams.
A few takeaways:
1. If we match bids for Quaynor and Kelly then our "live" picks in the 2018 draft will likely be at the very end of the draft as we will likely exhaust our points (in the absence of trading in another pick).
2. On current CT rankings, Quaynor is likely to majorly compromise our 2018 first rounder.
3. On current CT rankings, Kelly is likely to compromise our 2019 first rounder (in the absence of trading in another pick) and prevent us participating in the FS/NGS process for 2019 (in the absence of trading in another 2018 pick).
4. There may be merit in looking to move our first rounder up into the top 10 of the first round making it a much more likely "live" pick which would potentially mean getting a high pick draftee, Quaynor and Kelly in 2018. It would compromise our 2019 first and prevent us participating in the FS/NGS process for 2019, but it is open to us to trade that pick and use subsequent 2019 draft picks to satisfy the carry over points deficit.
5. A GCS FA compensation pick for Lynch may dramatically change the situation for Norf.
As always, post any errors you see (I was a bit hungover at the time of writing). |
I will add a couple comments and I’m happy to be corrected also if I’m off the mark.
Your points calculations were understandably done without a Fasolo compensation pick. Obviously any titbit in the third round for Faz would help a little.
This reality is that this is a quality draft at the pointy end. I completely get the value of trading in a pick under 10. I still maintain that Quaynors name isn’t likely to be called out before 10 but the steak knives that we need to offer along with our allocated first round pick would be “ significant “. Only a guess here but we would probably have to move up six ( ? ) spots in a great draft.
As for 2019 F S selections, have we established yet if the second Daicos son is eligible for the 2019 draft ?
I think this draft and trade period will be about getting some of our Wishlist but not all of it. I have prioritised what I think is the order for what we should be trying to achieve in this offseason. I’m interested in anyone’s view on my order of priorities -
1) secure Will Kelly as a discounted F S pick
2) secure quality mature KPP who is an automatic selection ( trade value of a likely first round pick in either 2018 or 2019 draft )
3) secure Quaynor as a discounted N G A pick. Primarily he is a quality H B F but now spending time in midfield and going ok. I don’t have him as a priority because we have invested in Murray and liked what we see in Appleby and Murphy, all as H B Fs
4) Secure mature age KPP from VFL / elsewhere if still available late in the draft or early in rookie draft.
If you agree with those priorities, then the third priority becomes very difficult to achieve if the second priority has been addressed ( without greatly impacting our 2019 draft ) If we secure Lynch, then the second priority is no longer required.
I don’t want to see Moore leave but if the decision isn’t in our control, then that trade may yet be the circuit breaker that allows us to achieve all the above. |
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