What are our chances for 2024?

[Take_a_Screamer]

The period after the bye will be like a new season.
We will have had a rest, chance to review strategies.
A couple of important players return (JDG, Checkers, Pendles?) to bolster the team.
As at the start of the season, we need to be careful not to be slow off the blocks (so to speak).
A win against GC is imperative to set us on course for the rush to the finals.

We need to be near full strength against teams like Swans, Essendon, Carlton.
With Krueger in at FF we finally have a marking beast to put the fear in those teams.
With the possibility of McStay in the team late in the season, and Cox available,
we need enough time to perfect our best fwd structure for the finals.

We have a lot of good young (or new) stock to put pressure on senior players...
Harrison, Richards, Dean, Sullivan, McInnes, Long, etc.

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Fair assessment there take a screamer.
thinking the matches v essendon and v cats will be the start of determining what the rest of the season has for us.
For me we must win at least the first 3 matches coming back after the bye to kind of help us be set up as i think we lose to swans in sydney and we have carlton again.

[Take_a_Screamer]

“I’ve whittled it down to four”: Dermott Brereton’s 2024 premiership contenders.

● Sydney
● Carlton
● Collingwood
● Giants

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/06/20/ive-whittled-it-down-to-four-dermott-breretons-2024-premiership-contenders/[/search]

[RudeBoy]

We are on track for a top 4 finish.

However, we will not want to finish 4th and have to play Sydney on their home turf. Unfortunately, Carlton have a vey easy run home from here, except when they face us. The Bumbers have a reasonably hard run home.

So looking at the current ladder and remaining fixture, I think we have a very good chance of finishing 3rd, provided we keep on winning. That would likely give us our first final against the scum at the 'G'. I reckon that would get a reasonable crowd along for that one.

[David]

With Port being thrashed by the Lions earlier today and the Giants currently down by 47 to the Swans, we’ll be in the top 4 at the end of this round (3rd if West Coast beat Essendon).

[RudeBoy]

My tip for the top 4 at season's end is:

Swans
Scum
Pies
Bumbers

[Pies4shaw]

^ Oh no - that would mean playing the first Final against Carlton at their home ground.

[dalyc]

South Melbourne
Carlton
Pies
Fitzroy

[Pies4shaw]

[David]

4th place is the hardest one to pick right now. It won’t be Essendon, and Geelong, Port, Melbourne and the Giants have all been pretty average for a while now. On current form Brisbane would have to be the most likely, unless one of those teams can find a way to turn it around.

The good news is that the path is pretty clear for us, and if other teams keep stumbling it may be that we don’t even need as many wins as predicted (say, 14 wins + 2 draws may be enough).

Bizarrely, we have the fourth best percentage of teams in the top 8 (behind Sydney, Carlton and the Giants), but there are four more teams outside the top 8 with better percentage than us.

[Jezza]

^ Agree, the current ladder is a real head scratcher. Outside of Sydney and to a lesser extent us and Carlton, it's hard to get a gauge on the rest of the teams from Essendon (3rd) and everyone between 5th to 13th.

At the moment, I could easily see Geelong and Port Adelaide falling out of the 8 and being replaced by Brisbane and Western Bulldogs who are playing better football at the moment. Even Hawthorn is a dark horse if they sustain the run of form they're going through.

I think 13 wins (or 52 points) should be enough for us to qualify for Finals.

[Take_a_Screamer]

hehehe...

"The Swans will not win the flag this year, and here’s why."

"Collingwood, if they can get enough of their key players back from injury, are the real favourites. Their depth, resilience, and tactical acumen make them the real deal every week."

https://www.theroar.com.au/2024/06/22/dont-get-carried-away-just-yet-swans-fans-some-reasons-why-sydney-wont-soar-to-victory-this-year/

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

With the Pies ask me in 3-4 weeks time.
I think the Swans have peak to early in my mind.
Kind of doing a Pies of 2023.
lets see how August goes for the Swans.
Suns like to win and kind of start to nestle in the top 4 for another week myself.
the key matches are the essendon and geelong back to back mcg games for mine.
these 2 blockbusters will tell us everything.

[Pies4shaw]

^ The only thing that matters about home and away games is getting the 4 points often enough to finish high up the ladder. Over about 300 years (occasionally, it feels like it) of watching Collingwood, how many times have we seen them demolish the contender and then lose when it matters (eg, North '77, Carlton '70 and '81). We won't learn anything from those games, other than whether Collingwood got 0,2 4, 6 or 8 points from them.

Also, just quietly, neither game is a "blockbuster" - Geelong and Essendon are both bottom 10 teams.

[Take_a_Screamer]