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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | And so, having seen today's Victorian numbers, here's what's happening today in some countries that didn't have a hotel quarantine problem:
- the UK: 7,143 new cases and 71 new deaths;
- the US: 35,280 new cases and 827 new deaths (numbers not yet final);
- Spain: 9,906 new cases and 203 new deaths; and
- France: 8,051 new cases and 85 new deaths. |
And for relevance, some Australian states that didn't have a hotel quarantine problem against the baseline of 13 new cases and 4 new deaths (794 in total) reported in Victoria.
-NSW. 0 locally acquired cases for 4 days in a row. 0 deaths, 55 in total
-QLD 0 new cases. 0 deaths, 6 in total.
I could do them all but it would just be embarrasing. Back in June Victoria was doing better than NSW,
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| stui magpie wrote: |
Very interesting data, albeit 3 months old. Australia really has been The Spice girls in 2020, everyone is working hard and doing their best but Victoria is letting the side down.
I might see if I can find some more recent info and analysis on that.
Then again I might not, depends on my mood. |
You’ll find that the US CDCs publish weekly data (current to 26 September, albeit provisional). Last time I looked, they had identified substantial excess deaths in the pertinent period (over 2,000,000 deaths since January 2, up 10%, they said - call it 200,000 - on expected deaths). Their figures are probably an under-enumeration.
Here's a link to one of the CDC pages: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Here's a useful international overview that includes a chart detailing this year's deaths, month by month, against average mortality for the previous 5 years, country by country - not for Australia but for Europe and the United States: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
The Australian data is presently too trivial for anything much to emerge definitively, yet. In fact, now that we are near the end of flu season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Victoria’s position is neutral or perhaps even “better” than might otherwise have been expected. Anyway, we won’t know for a while, since the ABS August release only deals with data to May. You really have to look to a jurisdiction where they’ve done a much more effective of job killing people with the virus. Victoria isn’t even in the hunt. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Thanks for the links, next time hold the side order of sarcasm.
I've got little interest in overseas, as inverted seasons make it messy. I'm interested in seeing how Australia has coped as there are a number of variables that could be at play.
1. Covid 19 obviously
2. Increased hand hygiene, isolation and other having an impact on the normal flu season
3. People not going to GP's for checkups to diagnose conditions or treatments on existing medical conditions can increase otherwise preventable deaths
4. potential for reduction in vehicle related deaths
So there's a bunch of things to look at, including the alleged decrease in aged care deaths. But with Victoria having 90% of the national Covid 19 deaths, that data may skew differently.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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David 
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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11 new cases today after reclassification. First time the weekly average has been in single figures (9.9, to be exact) since 16 June.
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"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| stui magpie wrote: | Thanks for the links, next time hold the side order of sarcasm.
I've got little interest in overseas, as inverted seasons make it messy. I'm interested in seeing how Australia has coped as there are a number of variables that could be at play.
1. Covid 19 obviously
2. Increased hand hygiene, isolation and other having an impact on the normal flu season
3. People not going to GP's for checkups to diagnose conditions or treatments on existing medical conditions can increase otherwise preventable deaths
4. potential for reduction in vehicle related deaths
So there's a bunch of things to look at, including the alleged decrease in aged care deaths. But with Victoria having 90% of the national Covid 19 deaths, that data may skew differently. |
There was no sarcasm. The short fact is that the number of Australian/Victorian deaths from COVID-19 is statistically trivial compared to total deaths, so you have to look elsewhere (ie, to places where the COVID-19 deaths are not statistically irrelevant) to understand the potential impact of the disease. There were around 158,000 deaths in Australia in 2018 (about 41,000 in Victoria), so 800 or 900, when offset by various externalities, probably won’t even show as a definite blip - given the variable factors that impinge from year to year, COVID-19 deaths will likely fall within the area of uncertainty (perhaps not for Victoria in July and August but I am struggling to find any useful data for Victoria that goes back more than 12 months).
It is quite possible (maybe even likely) that an assessment of Victorian mortality, performed a couple of years after the event, when all the data is in, will show that Victoria had fewer mortalities than expected in 2020. That doesn’t mean that COVID-19 wasn’t deadly (we know that it is) but the extraordinary measures taken in Victoria may well have - on balance - prevented a whole lot of other deaths (there is a sizeable chunk of preventable deaths every year). |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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| eddiesmith wrote: | | K wrote: | | Pies4shaw wrote: | ...
There is, however, no proper basis at all for an assertion that Victoria is "over-counting" COVID-19 deaths. To the contrary, the only Federal/State revisions that have been made to the Victorian death tally, so far as I am aware, have been revisions upwards. |
This claim of over-counting is made by folks of a certain ideology across the world. It ignores the excess death numbers, which are usually much greater than the official COVID death numbers. About the only place where the excess deaths are near the official COVID deaths is Belgium, the country that claims it is the only one not cheating on the numbers.
The folks who claim over-counting would need to explain where all these excess deaths across the world are coming from. |
Have we had excess deaths in Australia? Aged care was down a 1000 on last year and that’s where the majority of deaths have been. |
Given all the COVID measures in place, any country that's doing vaguely okay should probably have a decrease in deaths, i.e. any significant excess deaths probably mean a big COVID problem.
It's because deaths from almost everything else go down; e.g. road deaths, homicides, accidents, etc. I posted previously about Ch. 10 reporting homicides in S. Africa had gone down by a huge factor. Of course, if your homicide rate is low already, that's not such a big deal. In the same report, they said Israel (who at the time were being praised for their response, before their current problems) had a decrease in total deaths of 12%. |
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Tannin 
Can't remember
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Location: Huon Valley Tasmania
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| K wrote: | | It's because deaths from almost everything else go down; e.g. road deaths, homicides, accidents, etc. I posted previously about Ch. 10 reporting homicides in S. Africa had gone down by a huge factor. Of course, if your homicide rate is low already, that's not such a big deal. In the same report, they said Israel (who at the time were being praised for their response, before their current problems) had a decrease in total deaths of 12%. |
Not to mention another big one: respiratory infections - influenza, of course, but there are many different ones and any one of them can be a killer if your immune system is out of kilter - for example, if you've just had a course of chemo. Social distancing, hand hygiene, and mask wearing, all of these act to reduce the death rate from all kinds of infectious disease, not just Covid.
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�Let's eat Grandma.� Commas save lives! |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | Thanks for the links, next time hold the side order of sarcasm.
I've got little interest in overseas, as inverted seasons make it messy. I'm interested in seeing how Australia has coped as there are a number of variables that could be at play.
1. Covid 19 obviously
2. Increased hand hygiene, isolation and other having an impact on the normal flu season
3. People not going to GP's for checkups to diagnose conditions or treatments on existing medical conditions can increase otherwise preventable deaths
4. potential for reduction in vehicle related deaths
So there's a bunch of things to look at, including the alleged decrease in aged care deaths. But with Victoria having 90% of the national Covid 19 deaths, that data may skew differently. |
There was no sarcasm. The short fact is that the number of Australian/Victorian deaths from COVID-19 is statistically trivial compared to total deaths, so you have to look elsewhere (ie, to places where the COVID-19 deaths are not statistically irrelevant) to understand the potential impact of the disease. There were around 158,000 deaths in Australia in 2018 (about 41,000 in Victoria), so 800 or 900, when offset by various externalities, probably won’t even show as a definite blip - given the variable factors that impinge from year to year, COVID-19 deaths will likely fall within the area of uncertainty (perhaps not for Victoria in July and August but I am struggling to find any useful data for Victoria that goes back more than 12 months).
It is quite possible (maybe even likely) that an assessment of Victorian mortality, performed a couple of years after the event, when all the data is in, will show that Victoria had fewer mortalities than expected in 2020. That doesn’t mean that COVID-19 wasn’t deadly (we know that it is) but the extraordinary measures taken in Victoria may well have - on balance - prevented a whole lot of other deaths (there is a sizeable chunk of preventable deaths every year). |
Apologies then, I took this as sarcasm. | Pies4shaw wrote: | | You really have to look to a jurisdiction where they’ve done a much more effective of job killing people with the virus. Victoria isn’t even in the hunt. |
I repeat, I'm not overly interested in overseas data, nor (in case you assume) am I interested in trying to prove Victoria did bad. We already know that. I'm interested in how the Australian death rate may have been impacted by all the differences in 2020. So yes I may need to wait until next year to get meaningful data.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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Latest numbers
Confirmed (Deaths) - Recoveries
USA = 7,408,066 (210,835) - 4,649,827
India = 6,242,014 (97,720) - 5,202,079
Brazil = 4,780,317 (143,010) - 4,135,088
Russia = 1,176,286 (20,722) - 958,257
Colombia = 824,042 (25,828) - 734,154
Peru = 811,768 (32,396) - 676,925
Spain = 758,172 (31,614) - unknown
Mexico = 738,163 (77,163) - 530,945
Argentina = 736,609 (16,519) - 585,857
South Africa = 672,572 (16,667) - 606,520
...........................................................
Australia = 27,078 (886) - 24,754
33,903,251 confirmed cases
1,014,197 deaths
25,129,190 recoveries
Australia:
- Confirmed cases = 27,078
---- Victoria = 20,169
---- New South Wales = 4,224
---- Queensland = 1,157
---- Western Australia = 684
---- South Australia = 468
---- Tasmania = 230
---- ACT = 113
---- NT = 33
- Deaths = 886
- Recoveries = 24,754
- Case fatality rate = 3.27%
Active Cases = 7,759,864
- USA = 2,547,404
- India = 942,215
- Brazil = 502,219
- France = 422,470
- Russia = 197,307
- Argentina = 134,233
- Mexico = 130,055
- Ukraine = 112,470
- Peru = 102,447
- Belgium = 87,728
............................................
- Australia = 391
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| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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Jezza
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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AUSTRALIA
Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases
23/09/2020 = 26,974 (32) = 0.1%
24/09/2020 = 26,983 (9) = 0.03%
25/09/2020 = 27,000 (17) = 0.1%
26/09/2020 = 27,016 (16) = 0.1%
27/09/2020 = 27,040 (24) = 0.1%
28/09/2020 = 27,044 (4) = 0.01%
29/09/2020 = 27,063 (19) = 0.1%
30/09/2020 = 27,078 (15) = 0.1%
24,754 recovered, 886 deaths.
Cases doubling every 68 days.
4,733 cases of community transmission nationwide.
391 active cases.
South Australia, Tasmania, ACT and NT have no active cases.
VICTORIA
Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases
23/09/2020 = 20,100 (24) = 0.1%
24/09/2020 = 20,105 (5) = 0.02%
25/09/2020 = 20,118 (13) = 0.1%
26/09/2020 = 20,129 (11) = 0.1%
27/09/2020 = 20,145 (16) = 0.1%
28/09/2020 = 20,149 (4) = 0.1%
29/09/2020 = 20,158 (9) = 0.05%
30/09/2020 = 20,169 (11) = 0.1%
19,006 recovered, 798 deaths.
Cases doubling every 61 days in Victoria.
4,272 cases of community transmission in Victoria.
305 active cases.
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| 1902 | 1903 | 1910 | 1917 | 1919 | 1927 | 1928 | 1929 | 1930 | 1935 | 1936 | 1953 | 1958 | 1990 | 2010 | 2023 | |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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NY Times:
Cats Shed More Than Dogs. The Coronavirus, Not Fur.
A new experiment confirmed that cats can spread the virus to one another, and found dogs did not shed the virus. There’s still no evidence that pets transmit it to humans. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-01/uk-long-covid-19-survivors-form-group-to-discuss-symptoms/12701112
An extract:
| Quote: | Nurse Sue Snelson, 64, ended up in intensive care at the Scunthorpe General Hospital in Lincolnshire in April after contracting the virus.
"I used to manage the unit, so I recognised where I was," she said of the moment she woke after 10 days in the ICU.
After four months off, Sue is now back at the hospital in a limited role after what she described as a "very slow" recovery.
"I still get very short of breath at times, going up a steep slope or upstairs is still difficult and if I talk too much without a break," Ms Snelson said.
"I have actually been told by the consultant that I have a degree of scarring on my lung and I'm always going to have a degree of breathlessness now."
Doctors have not been able to confirm if Ms Snelson has any antibodies for the disease, meaning she must be extra cautious not to contract the virus again.
Due to the scarring on her lungs, she's been told it's unlikely her condition will improve. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | Deaths per 1,000,000 population to date - usually sensible and well-resourced health-system nations, populations over 100,000 persons (including Australia):
1. Belgium - 859
2. Spain - 668
3. USA - 631
4. UK - 617
5. Italy - 593
6. Sweden - 581
7. France - 485
8. The Netherlands - 371
9. Ireland - 364
10. Canada - 245
....
World average - 128
....
Australia - 34
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries |
Just an update:
1. Belgium - 862
2. Spain - 680
3. USA - 638
4. UK - 620
5. Italy - 594
6. Sweden - 583
7. France - 489
8. The Netherlands - 374
9. Ireland - 364
10. Canada - 246
....
World average - 130
....
Australia - 35 |
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K
Joined: 09 Sep 2011
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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