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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Here's an article that concerns the "long-COVID" consequences of non-fatal infections.
On numbers, it notes that:
| Quote: | | Research indicates about 10 per cent of the COVID population will suffer from the prolonged condition and half of more than 73,000 of those admitted to hospital had one or more medical complications. |
The links supporting those numbers appear to be this:
https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/news/news/2021/2/new-policy-brief-calls-on-decision-makers-to-support-patients-as-1-in-10-report-symptoms-of-long-covid
and this:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00799-6/fulltext
The latter link is a very current article published in The Lancet. It concerns a cohort study of 80,388 cases. The study found widespread complications across all ages for all people who had required hospitalisation. The "Discussion" section at the end of the article deals cogently with the serious implications of the study. They could be paraphrased, I think, in the following way - although COVID is more likely to kill you if you're old, its significantly likely to leave you substantially impaired if you're younger. Also, pre-existing health conditions can make you more likely to die of COVID - but they don't affect the likelihood of substantial long-term complications nearly as much.
What it does, in my view, is make it plain that the focus on mortality only is all wrong. So, as we know, young people don't tend to die from the disease - but the study suggests that letting younger adults and children get the disease isn't a sane option, because of the substantial risk of long-term, life-altering morbidity. We're talking about serious physical dysfunction, here - there are plenty of awful things that illnesses can do to people that are short of dying in the short-term from them. |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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I've had a look at the articles, I don't agree that this is accurate.
| Quote: | | the study suggests that letting younger adults and children get the disease isn't a sane option, because of the substantial risk of long-term, life-altering morbidity. We're talking about serious physical dysfunction |
The study from how I read it was on people who were hospitalised with Covid and how a number of them had ongoing complications. The vast majority of cases don't require hospitalisation so we're talking about a small minority of a small minority who do have ongoing complications and we don't know how long for.
We won't be in a position to throw out restrictions until much closer to Christmas if it happens at all this year, by which time there should be lots of clean data from the science experiment that is currently the UK
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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doriswilgus
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Location: the great southern land
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| David wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | | David wrote: |
Who the hell thinks Brisbane have a chance of hosting the Olympics!? Have they run out of cities or something?  |
Guess who's hosting the 2032 Olympics? Announced today.  |
Well there you go. I look forward to El Paso and Scunthorpe getting the nods for 2036 and 2040 respectively. |
I’m with you,David.I spent the first part of my life in Brisbane and I never thought of it as a major sporting capital,or any sort of capital for that matter.
To be honest,I think the Olympics new way of determining who should host the Olympics helped them get the bid.They don’t have an open tendering business anymore.Instead a technical sub committee basically decides which city they want to host the olympics and then it’s rubber stamped by the full Olympic committee.If they had the old system where cities were effectively bidding agains eachother,I don’t think Brisbane would have stood a chance against larger overseas cities. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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I can't be bothered arguing about it. I was just trying to characterise, fairly, the point they were plainly making, here:
| Quote: | | Mortality is a hard endpoint, easily measured, and of utmost importance. However, its use as a sole outcome in COVID-19 studies might underestimate the detrimental impact of COVID-19, particularly in those who are younger or otherwise healthy. Our analysis suggests that the odds of some complications change little with increasing age in those older than 50 years. Therefore, when compared with mortality, complications will affect many more people across a range of different age groups. Notably, our data show only small increases in the risk of complications by pre-existing comorbidities. The effect of comorbidities on the risk of complications and death was substantially higher in younger people compared with people without comorbidities of the same age. We also observed the differences in number of complications decrease between those who died and those who survived as age increased, suggesting that although young people are less likely to die, they might be proportionally more likely to survive and live with complications. Patients with complications are also likely to have impaired ability to self-care following discharge from hospital. This finding contradicts current narratives that COVID-19 is only dangerous in people with existing comorbidities and the elderly. Dispelling and contributing to the scientific debate around such narratives has become increasingly important. Many countries including the UK are experiencing further waves of infection.32 Suggestions have been made around using younger, healthy demographic groups who are less likely to die, to help support economic output, and to propagate herd immunity within a population.33 Policy makers need to consider not just mortality when making decisions around easing population-level interventions designed to limit spread, but also the risk of both short-term and long-term complications for those who survive COVID-19. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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It's a fair point and I'm not trying to create an argument. We have different perspectives, you're far more risk averse (at least in a health setting) than I am.
Everything you do as a human has a chance to kill you, for me it's about balancing risk v benefit.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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From the ABC's blog:
| Quote: | Victoria's COVID case numbers expected to be in low teens, the ABC understands
The ABC understands Victoria's case numbers today will be in the low teens, and all new cases are linked to known outbreaks.
Yesterday, Victoria recorded 26 new cases, of which 24 were in isolation throughout their entire infectious period.
The health department will release the official daily case count later this morning. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| ^ Thanks, Stui - that was the article I meant to link in my first post yesterday. The quote is from it and the links I mentioned were referred to in it. Must have been asleep at the wheel when I was pasting! |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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In Victoria, there "are 14 new locally-acquired COVID-19 cases which are all linked to the current outbreaks. 10 of the 14 cases were in quarantine throughout their entire infectious period with 1 of the other 4 cases still to be interviewed."
Victoria's cases that were infectious in the community for at least part of their infectious period over the last 7 reporting days were, in total, 62. Of those, 46 were in the first three of the seven days and there have been 16, in total, over the last 4 days. The number needs to be lower, of course, but it is, at least, trending strongly in the right direction (from oldest to newest: 18, 16, 12, 4, 6, 2, 4). |
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think positive 
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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geezus
well I will dissuade my kids from getting AZ, but when they are eligible for Pfizer, ill be all for it.
how fricken scary is that
and yet still the country of origin have not been punished for their lies!
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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David
to wish impossible things
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: the edge of the deep green sea
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That is encouraging – thanks for breaking those numbers down, P4S.
Anyone want to take a stab on whether we'll be out of lockdown on Wednesday? You'd think the government would be forming a rough idea by now.
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"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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| David wrote: | That is encouraging – thanks for breaking those numbers down, P4S.
Anyone want to take a stab on whether we'll be out of lockdown on Wednesday? You'd think the government would be forming a rough idea by now. |
i doubt it, id say they might lessen restrictions, but to be honest, i think they need to keep some a little longer. no good getting to just a few, have to beat it.
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| David wrote: | That is encouraging – thanks for breaking those numbers down, P4S.
Anyone want to take a stab on whether we'll be out of lockdown on Wednesday? You'd think the government would be forming a rough idea by now. |
For mine it will completely depend on the Prahran Market. If several people got infected there and have all had several days to pass it on we would be in for an explosion of numbers. If not, then we've lucked out and may get some restrictions reduced.
_________________
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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4Nic8 me inebriated, things not going well in NSW
136 new cases, only 53 of which are known to have been in isolation for the whole of the infectious period.
NSW declaring a National Emergency, tightening up restrictions, Dandrews making helpful suggestions to Gladys to replicate the ring of chickenwire he used last year to keep Regional Victoria safe.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-23/covid-live-updates-blog-sydney-lockdown-victoria-restrictions/100316238
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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So, once again, NSW's numbers are another way of saying that at least 70 and up to 83 of the 136 new cases were infectious in the community for part or all of their infectious period.
Understood that way, NSW's cases that were infectious in the community for at least part of their infectious period or whose infectious status in the community is not known over the last 7 reporting days were, in total, 406. From oldest to newest, the daily numbers in the last week are showing a disturbing trend: 42, 36, 44, 41, 73, 87, 83.
Another way of looking at this is that, at the start of the week, the NSW number was a bit over twice the Victorian number. Today, it's over 20 times as high. |
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