Australian federal election 2022

[Lazza]

Oh well nice to see the right wingers losing 😎 Let’s celebrate democracy🎈👏🏽

[Dave The Man]

[Pies4shaw]

^ I suppose he means the Teals:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/21/teal-independents-punish-liberal-moderates-for-inaction-on-climate-crisis-and-integrity-commission

[pietillidie]

Well, it sounds better for climate policy if the teals are Glib-lite??

[Pies4shaw]

76 House of Representatives seats is the majority number.

The Liberals look to have lost 22 seats, nationwide, so that the LNP now has just 53 seats (the split is, roughly, Liberal 44, Nats 9).

The ALP looks like it will win 72 (gaining 9 and losing 3). Critically, the 3 seats the ALP appears to have lost are 2 Green gains in Brisbane and the local backlash about Keneally being parachuted into Sydney's Fowler.

The Greens look set to win 4. The "Teal" (climate) independents look to have won 7.

In Victoria, the ALP has gained Chisholm (on a swing of 8.1%) and Higgins (which, hilariously, includes Toorak - Prahran, South Yarra, Windsor, Toorak, Armadale, Malvern, Ashburton, Carnegie, Ormond, Murrumbeena and parts of Glen Iris) on a swing of 8.7%. A series of formerly "safe" Liberal seats are now becoming marginal (eg, Casey, which the Libs will retain on a margin that looks to be about 1.3%, Deakin, which will drop from a margin of over 10% to about 2.7% and Menzies, where the Libs lead by just 45 votes on the two-party preferred, at the moment). Correspondingly, formerly marginal ALP seats have seen huge swings to the ALP (eg, Corangamite - formerly held on a 1.1% majority will now be held by over 10%).

So, no apparent anti-Andrews vote in Victoria - the message seems to be a clear one. The electorate wanted the LNP out and sent quite specific messages about the climate crisis - safe Liberals in blue ribbon seats have been kicked out because the LNP was doing nothing useful about it and the ALP has lost votes to the Greens, especially in safe seats. It looks like the message to both parties is clear - sort the climate crisis or get a kicking.

[Pies4shaw]

[David]

I’m seeing mixed reports on whether Labor is on track for a slim majority (maybe 76/77) or will have to govern in minority with Green/independent support, which is obviously my preference. Either way, the results are extraordinary, and well beyond my wildest hopes – for the Greens alone, this is an election where they’ve announced themselves as a formidable third force in Australian politics, with up to 5 lower house MPs and 12 senators.

[think positive]

Well if that’s true it’s a good thing, although I’m not sure the new guy can hold back the flood like, um, that guy, well I haven’t read the bible, but I’ve seen the picture!

I have to say, I took pretty much zero interest after doing a couple of online searches to see who’s policies I like best, amd now I have no idea again!

Dumb it down for me, what’s good, what’s bad,



In saying that I’m sure there has been a huge huge knee jerk reaction because of the last 2 years. And truth is no one will ever know ofthe other side would have even worse! Thenew guy appears to be a bit thick, I think I voted that way due to his parties policies on animal rights. I honestly can’t remember, certainly didn’t put a major party in the top three. ScoMo made some blunders, for sure, but I don’t think he’s a really bad dude, not like trump anyway! Or Whitlam! This was never a winnable election for him.

A lot of people lame governments for shit they can’t fully control. Covid was hopefully a once in a couple of lifetime thing, job keeper certainly saved a lot of families, but where did the money come from? I actually think the super for housing idea was brilliant. When you read the whole thing. People don’t. They birch about not enough ambulances or cops impinging the rights of people who are endangering all of us with idiotic protests during lockdown. All of these protests could have waited. As for ambulances, have you had a cold and tried to see a decent doctor? They won’t let you in,well not easily. so people go to emergency or call ambulances out of desperation, clogging up the system, and people in real need of triple 0 die. Not to mention a desperate need for more of everything, nurses, doctors, paramedics, while these job sectors are being smashed by covid, depression, stress, huh, and people think they did it tough with a 5k lockdown, I’d rather that than what those sectors went through. Or the cops. Yeah yeah everyone hates lazy good for nothing cops, but my sister was front line on the covid squad, and as much as she drives me crazy, I know just how hard the last 2 years have been for her. Medical sector and police sector depression, anxiety and suicide figures....and for trying to help is all. Gratitude and empathy, so sadly missing these days. ScoMo was dammed what ever decisions were made by anyone.

All I hope is some really tough lessons are learned.

For a start, don’t build houses in flood zones. if numbers are high, or you have a cold, wear a $�$%^%%$ mask or stay home. Common sense is a dying art.

[Pies4shaw]

[roar]

It will interesting to see what happens to the LNP now.

[Pies4shaw]

They'll probably just rename the Libs the "Queensland Party" - 20 of their 33 seats nationally are there. There's a hint in that, of course - sensible people who could read and write like Frydenberg and Birmingham have gone or become strangers as moderates in an increasingly reactionary party. The likelihood is that Dutton will "lead" them (for which, read "do whatever you do when you have an IQ 45 points below that necessary to lead a political party") for a short while.

The real concern for the LNP is that they've been hanging on to Qld on a fossil-fuel-abolition scare campaign. If the new government doesn't produce the catastrophic consequences for Qld jobs that allegedly underpinned that scare campaign, the LNP may never recover.

[David]

[stui magpie]

What seems to be very clear from the numbers is this was a vote against the LNP after 9 years, and Morrison.

On a Primary vote basis, Labor had a swing against of 0.5%. hardly a ringing endorsement for Albo

In Victoria, the swing against Labor in primary vote was 4%. That may not count as an Anti Dan vote but it will have some sphincters twitching at Dan HQ leading up to a state election.

The Teal Party ran a very clever, strategic, targeted campaign, right down to their colour choice of teal, combining small L Liberal values (Blue) with a Green tinge.

They targeted mainly Male Liberal members with Female candidates in affluent seats where that message would fly and while they took most of their votes from Labor and Greens, they took enough Liberal votes to take some seats. Whether that combination would work at a national level across the board or not is an intriguing proposition but certainly provides some food for thought. Interesting that the seats the Greens picked up were urban seats where the Teal Party chose not to field candidates. The Greens only got a 1.7% swing in Primary vote.

What will be interesting is how Albo approaches this if they don't get a majority in their own right. Will be form a formal coalition with the Greens which he has previously ruled out, or try to gather enough support from the cross benches to form a minority government and then rely on negotiation. The Teals aren't necessarily ideologically aligned to Labor values, just a couple of policy areas, so he likely won't get any traction with them if he tries to revive Shorten style policies.

Fun and games for the next 3 years it seems.

[Pies4shaw]

To win the next State election in Victoria, the LNP needs a uniform 10.3% swing against the ALP - and to it. That's not going to happen.

There wasn't even a uniform Victorian swing in last night's election. What actually happened is that the ALP generally picked up votes everywhere it could win an election against the Libs but there was obviously a lot of strategic voting - plenty of progressives shifted their vote to Green and a lot of ALP voters in hopeless electorates obviously backed the anti-Lib climate change candidates in otherwise safe Liberal seats.

It's too difficult to do a seat by seat swing analysis to and from the ALP at this stage, given the way the votes are being reported as two-party preferred (many in places where the ALP isn’t one of the two parties) but one can see, out of the 37 Victorian Federal electorates, that on a two-party preferred basis:

- There was a swing to the ALP in 18 of the 37 seats;
- There was a swing to the Greens in 3 safe ALP seats;
- There was a swing to the Libs in 8 safe ALP seats;
- There was a swing against the ALP in 3 safe country Lib/Nat seats;
- There were massive swings to independents against the Libs or Nats in 4 seats, 2 of which changed hands;
- No swing is available in Bruce (I don’t understand why), which the ALP holds comfortably.

I have little interest in how what-passes-for-a-brains-trust-at-the-ALP thinks about these things but I suppose they might be thinking that:

- it doesn’t matter what happens in the bush, where they trail by margins of 25% or more;
- getting people to unite behind independents to dislodge or nearly dislodge safe Liberals at the expense of ALP two-party preferred votes is neither here nor there;
- the real threat in ALP-voting electorates is from the Greens.

Thus, far from being concerned about what the result might mean for Victoria, I reckon the State ALP would take huge comfort from these numbers. The ALP vote held or improved everywhere it mattered.

And on the World stage:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-only-way-is-up-for-french-relations-after-le-drian-takes-final-swipe-at-morrison-20220522-p5andy.html

[Pies4shaw]

The ABC has created a little change-over-time graphic, embedded in this article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-22/election-how-labor-anthony-albanese-won/101087904 that shows how the LNP had a credible presence in all States (but not the Territories) before the election but now has a passable impact only in Queensland.