ODI World Cup.

[K]

Bad over from Wahab. 2 awful wides and now a 4.
12 from the over. Very bad.

[K]

Amir will bowl the last over.
c&b chance missed first ball.
Edge behind drops short of Sarfaraz second ball.
Shankar hits a 4 off the fourth ball.
Then a wide.

India 5/336 (50).
Amir 3/47 (10).

Odds at change of innings: India 81%, Pakistan 19%

Will there be more rain? The forecast is cloudy (not raining) 4-5pm, so you'd reckon there must be enough time for at least the required 20 overs. And M. Taylor doesn't think DLS would help Pakistan at this stage.

[K]

But there's now rain in the break for the change of innings!
cricinfo says the forecast for the next hour is 97% precipitation.

And remember that even if the rain stops, the outfield may need time to be dried.

cricinfo tells us Pakistan's 20-over DLS target: 97/0, 109/1, 125/2 or 146/3. The wicketless target doesn't look too bad, does it?
...

But now play is about to start again.

Wasim Akram: "The key is to have wickets in hands."
Wasim has a very calm commentating voice.

[K]

Drama. Bhuvneshwar feels something in his hamstring and doesn't complete his over. Shankar replaces him to complete the over and immediately gets a wicket LBW.

Pakistan 1/13 (4.5).

Odds: India 88%, Pakistan 12%.

[K]

1/38 (10).

Broadcast predictor: India 86%, Pakistan 14%.

Odds: India 88%, Pakistan 12%.

[K]

In the 22nd over, the broadcast predictor says India 85%, Pakistan 15%.

Pakistan 1/113 (23).

Odds: India 78%, Pakistan 22%.

But Yadav bowls Babar Azam with a stunning delivery that drifted and spun back sharply!
2/117 (24).

Odds: India 86%, Pakistan 14%.

And in his next over Yadav gets Fakhar Zaman too!
3/126 (25.2).

Odds: India 93%, Pakistan 7%.

Now the collapse is on.
4/129 (26.5).

Odds: India 97%, Pakistan 3%.

And next ball, another wicket! Pandya will be on a hat-trick!
5/129 (27).

Odds: India 99%, Pakistan 1%.
............................................

No hat-trick.

But the game is practically over.

[K]

There was more rain and DLS came in.

Pakistan 6/212 (40). DLS target 302.

Which make me wonder: how do they do the NRR when there are DLS-affected games? If they just ignore DLS, this is a major distortion. The side chasing a DLS target is going to have a higher RR than if they had chased the full-overs target. You could easily lose a game under DLS and have a much higher NRR than your opponent.

When does NRR come in as a table tiebreaker??

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The other question is where Oz stands now. Looking at the way very bad sides have been destroyed by the other three (very) likely SFists (India, England, NZ) but have threatened to beat Oz, I'd say Oz need to improve heaps to win the WC. That's one benefit (for Oz) of a tournament that drags on forever. You have time to improve. Your opponents have time to get jaded and collect injuries (what is the Roy situation?).

[K]

Bangladesh win toss, bowl.

WI 1/8 (5).

Chris Gayle scores a 13-ball duck.

Odds: WI 57%, Bangladesh 43%.
Line: 290.5.

...............................................

WI 1/53 (13).

cricinfo forecasts 278.

...............................................

WI 1/74 (17).

Odds: WI 60%, Bangladesh 40%.
Line: 300.5.

[K]

WI 2/122 (25).

Odds: WI 64%, Bangladesh 36%.
Line: 312.5.

[Donny]

2/156 after 31 overs.

Hope 53*, Pooran 24*.

[K]

At the fall of the 3rd wicket, at 3/159 (32.2), cricinfo forecasted 293.

........................................................................

In the 35th over, consecutively, 6 4 5wides 1wide...
and cricinfo forecasts 311.
The over costs 19 runs.

Then the 36th over ends 6, dot, 6 and costs 17 runs...
and cricinfo now forecasts 325.

WI are on the charge.

WI 3/210 (36).

Odds: WI 77%, Bangladesh 23%.
Line: 338.5.
...............................................

It doesn't stop. 10 runs off the 37th & 14 off the 38th.
Hope is well set, but it's Hetmyer smashing the bowling. 49* (24).

Odds: WI 82%, Bangladesh 18%.
Line: 351.5.

...............................................

3/240 (39).
cricinfo forecasts 334.
And next ball, Hetmyer gets his 50.

But Bangladesh get Hetmyer's wicket the next ball he faces. That'll be a relief for them.

4/243 (39.3).

And three balls, later Russell falls for a duck!
5/243 (40).

That was an eventful last 6 overs.

Odds: WI 72%, Bangladesh 28%.
Line: 321.5.

[K]

5/254 (41). cricinfo forecasts 317.
5/274 (43). cricinfo forecasts 325.

But Holder holes out after a lightning innings. 33 (15).
6/282 (43.4).

Odds: WI 76%, Bangladesh 24%.

[K]

6/294 (46). cricinfo forecasts 324.
Hope, playing the anchor role, edges towards a century.

But Hope departs. 96 (121).
7/297 (47). cricinfo forecasts 318.

Odds: WI 73%, Bangladesh 27%.
...............................................

And drama in the 49th over. The bails come off. It's not clear what happened. Then replays show Thomas's bat hit the wicket. It's referred.

Not out. It's ruled that the shot was completed and it was dead ball before the bat disturbed the stumps. No hit wicket.

7/311 (49). cricinfo forecasts 319 & WI 65% for the win.

Odds: WI 70%, Bangladesh 30%.
...............................................

The 50th over includes 3 wides, a 6, and a wicket, Bravo bowled off the last ball.

WI 8/321 (50).

Odds at change of innings: WI 68%, Bangladesh 32%.

[K]

Bangladesh 0/40 (7). cricinfo forecasts Bangladesh 41%.
WI went in one bowler short. And Cottrell's last (third) over went for 18 runs.

Odds: WI 59%, Bangladesh 41%.
...............................................

But Soumya Sarkar is out, caught at slip, one ball after hitting a 6.
1/52 (8.2). Just before he hit the 6, the broadcast predictor said WI 72%, Bangladesh 28%.

The odds barely move.
...............................

The next over, bowled by Holder, goes for 14 runs.
1/70 (10). cricinfo forecasts Bangladesh 48%.

Odds 50-50...
... and now, will 11 runs coming from the 11th over, bowled by Russell, Bangladesh are favourites: 59%-41%.

Russell is hurt. He's bowled 3 overs already. Did WI expect more than 4 overs from him anyway?
............................................

cricinfo gives DLS 20-over targets: 1/101 or 2/117.
In the 14th over, cricinfo forecasts Bangladesh 59%.

[K]

At 1/112 (16), cricinfo forecasted Bangladesh 62% for the win.

A run out to make it 2/121 (17.3) lowered the cricinfo forecast from Bangladesh 65% to 55%.
Next over, a wicket strangled down the leg side to make it 3/133 (19) lowered the cricinfo forecast from Bangladesh 60% to 49%.

At 3/192 (28 ), cricinfo forecasted Bangladesh 71%.

Shakib Al Hasan is now well set and in sight of a brilliant century. His all-round ODI record is sensational: over 200 ODIs for over 6000 runs and over 250 wickets. How many all-rounders can match that?
Oz should try to borrow him for the SF on. It would largely solve both Oz's batting and bowling problems.

Bangladesh now 3/210 (30).
Shakib 89* (74).

Odds: Bangladesh 79%, WI 21%.
...............................................

As Shakib enters the 90s, the bookmaker's line for his innings is 123.5.
Odds: Bangladesh 86%, WI 14%.

CRR is now over 7 , which is well above the RRR.
RR is under 100.
The game is Bangladesh's to lose now.

Russell has staggered through 6 overs. Unknown British commentators think he should not be risked for any more because the game is over anyway.
.................................................

In the 34th over, broadcast predictor: Bangladesh 94%.

Odds: Bangladesh 94%, WI 6%.

And off the last ball of the over, Shakib gets his century!
100* (83). 13 4s. cricinfo told us earlier in his innings he is the leading run-scorer of the WC so far. cricinfo now adds he is "far and away the Player of the Tournament so far".

There will be criticism of WI's decision to play an extra batsman and then put him in at 8.
................................................................................................

And in the 38th over, Liton Das hits Gabriel for three successive 6s. Shakib then edges the fifth ball for 4.
24 runs off the over.
3/294 (38 ). This game is done and dusted. The bookmaker is not taking bets on the result now.

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Bangladesh 3/322 (41.3) win with 51 balls remaining.