Cox Plate Day tips !

[paulie]

Ok punters lets hear your thoughts for the cox Plate and the other races on the card but in particular the all important quaddie legs!!!!

[tazza2000]

Is it even a contest??

Lonhro to win

Defier to Place

[Donny]

Lonhro no sure thing
By Adam Hamilton
October 23, 2003

LEADING Melbourne bookmaker Rick Macciotta insists Cox Plate favourite Lonhro is massively under the odds and can't wait to bet against him at Moonee Valley on Saturday.

Macciotta, one of the most daring and opinionated of Melbourne's bookies, described Lonhro's latest odds of $1.50 as "absolutely embarrassing".

"Are you for real? Do the markets really have him as short as $1.50?" he said.

"That's shocking value. I'm telling you now, Lonhro will be at least $1.75, should be closer to $2 on raceday.

"He's the best horse in the race and the one they have to beat, but punting is all about value and Lonhro is crazy odds at the moment."

While Macciotta stopped well short of saying Lonhro couldn't win the 2040m weight-for-age classic, he highlighted a few negatives against the five year-old.

"Everybody is looking at the positives, and there are plenty of them, but are people forgetting he was beaten out of sight at his only Moonee Valley run in last year's Cox Plate. He failed dismally," he said.

"He won his final lead-up run to last year's Cox Plate, then hit back and won the Mackinnon a week after. There's the evidence to say he's a question mark at the track."

Macciotta also rated the forecast of plenty of rain as a hurdle for Lonhro.

"If the track deteriorates he becomes an even bigger risk," he said.

With Gai Waterhouse's front-runner Shower Of Roses and free-wheeling South African mare Paraca in the race, Macciotta believes Lonhro will be put to the test.

"If the Cox Plate is truly run, and most of them are, then he's going to find this week's race a hell of a lot different to the weak sit-and-sprint races he's been winning lately," he said.

"You might say he beat Mummify at Caulfield last start, but Mummify was there for a tune-up to the Caulfield Cup and the race turned into a sprint home, which is right down Lonhro's alley."

Mark Morrissey, spokesman for betting shop Horsebet, said he too was keen to take a stand against Lonhro.

"Most places are betting $1.50 or $1.55, but we're already out to $1.60, which is the best in the land," he said. "He seems very short odds. I'd challenge any punter to step up and take the $1.60."

[Ev5Magpies]

There is more value in betting for a Place to come home, look for Shower of Roses to be among the placegetters & Clangalang to suprise (well not really) if it is pissing down on Saturday.

[tazza2000]

I'm putting my dollars on Defier to win and Fields of Omah to place

At least If it wins it will be worth it

[Donny]

The $2m mystery punter
By Ray Thomas
October 25, 2003

A MYSTERY punter has lived out the ultimate gambling fantasy, putting the house on a sure thing and winning, nine times out of 10.

In today's Cox Plate he's expected to continue his amazing devotion to the super horse Lonhro by making his usual bet, $200,000 to win.

So far this year, the punter has backed Lonhro in each of his 10 starts, investing up to $200,000 every time.

Lonhro has been beaten just once this year, giving his loyal fan a profit of nearly $1 million.

The Darwin-based Sporting Bet firm has been stung each time by the Perth punter and is bracing for another onslaught when the five-year-old gelding contests the $3 million Cox Plate at Melbourne's Moonee Valley.

"This punter has been following Lonhro since last February and you could say he is well in front," Michael Sullivan, a former leading Sydney bookmaker and representative for Sporting Bet, said.

"He hasn't backed the horse yet but I expect him to do so again. He bets up to $200,000 on the horse each race."

Mr Sullivan refused to reveal the identity of the punter or the total amount he has wagered.

However, surmising he has put $200,000 on Lonhro in each of his 10 races this year, he has won $912,000.

Lonhro has lost only once this year, when he came fourth in the Doncaster Handicap at Easter. His starting price from his nine wins has varied from $1.30 to $2.10.

If the punter puts $200,000 on Lonhro as expected today, he will win another $100,000 given the champ's current odds of $1.50 with TAB Fixed Odds.

It is believed the Perth punter bets occasionally on the races.

"He's a very devoted follower of Lonhro," Mr Sullivan said.

"I understand he was a big fan of Octagonal [sire of Lonhro] so that is probably the link."

If Lonhro can win his ninth Group One race today, he will take his prize money to $6,134,080, leapfrogging Octagonal ($5,892,231) into fourth on the all-time earners list.

The last horse to win a Cox Plate after winning all his lead-up races was Kingston Town, who had six straight wins prior to his 1981 triumph.

Red Anchor, the 1984 Cox Plate winner, was also unbeaten but his lead-up races were against three-year-olds.

Jockey Darren Beadman was asked to compare Lonhro with Kingston Town, the only horse to win three Cox Plates.

"Lonhro's the best horse I've ridden. He deserves to win this Cox Plate. He reads a race as well as me. He's a smart horse

[Donny]

About to go in the biggy. Light rain falling.

Lonrho is paying $1.60 in Victoria, $1.50 up here.

Clangalang attracting a few bets and in slightly to $5.40.

Fields of Omagh easy on $9.40. Defier on $11 and Shower of Roses is in to $15.

[Donny]

Was it the sting out of the track that stopped Lonhro's finishing burst ?

Fields of Omagh won from Defier and Lonhro.

[tazza2000]

[Madness]

Beadman's ride was a shocker in my book. Gave the horse no hope by not moving up at about the 800 when he could have. and in the first 200 could have got into FoO's possy too..ahhhhh...

one out in the quaddie...it hurts...laughs... \

but i went there to back two horses...The first winner, and Zanna... and i kicked both home, so i was a happy chicky all day

[Greg J]

Yet another disasterous day on the punt for me. Wrong turns at every race (except race 3).

Should have gone to work like I planned.

[JLC]

[JLC]