David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| Post subject: Poor logic from AFL commentators and journalists |  |
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I know that you don't need a degree in advanced maths to be a football journalist, and everybody makes mistakes, but it's weird when you hear exactly the same mistake from different sources.
Two weeks ago, radio commentators and football journalists all seemed to be saying that Geelong's draw with St. Kilda had been a major setback for their finals chances. But as it happens, a draw was as good as a win for them – at that stage, Adelaide's percentage was way out in front of the Cats', and the 2 points from the draw was all they needed to stay in striking distance of the Crows. If they had won that game, they would have still needed to win against us last week and hope that Adelaide lost to West Coast. Nothing changed.
Now, after tonight's game, everyone has pencilled in a Richmond-North Melbourne elimination final rematch. It's true that this is pretty likely; the only way that Richmond can sneak into the top 4 now is if Sydney lose to the Gold Coast. But if that unlikely result comes to pass, they're in.
If you read the line below, you'd think that Richmond's failure to overtake the Swans' percentage had cost them a shot at a place in the top 4:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-09-04/tigers-turn-it-around-set-up-repeat-roos-clash
| Quote: | | The Tigers didn't win by a big enough margin to overtake the Sydney Swans in fourth spot, and they can only slide down to sixth if the Western Bulldogs beat the Brisbane Lions by a three-figure margin. |
This seems to presume that the Swans can't lose any percentage on Sunday. That's not only obviously untrue, it's actually completely impossible – if they lose to the Suns, they will lose percentage. That's how percentage works when it's over 100. I checked it out on the ladder predictor, and as it happens, even if the Suns win by just 1 point, Richmond will be in the top 4.
An understandable journalistic mistake, perhaps. But why did I hear exactly the same claim on ABC radio tonight after the game? It's like some form of collective brain fade.
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