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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Post subject: Aston byelection |  |
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| There is, at this stage, a swing of over 9% to the ALP. Antony Green has the ALP as "likely". Since the Libs have held this electorate since 1990 and the usual thing with byelections is a 5% swing against the government of the day (and a government hasn’t won a byelection from an opposition in more than 100 years), this is yet another problematic night for the Libs (even if they manage to claw the seat back as counting progresses). |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-01/byelection-result-aston-melbourne-labor-win/102157990
| Quote: | Labor has won a by-election in the federal seat of Aston in Melbourne's outer eastern suburbs.
The result is considered a devastating blow for the Liberal Party, which now only holds two federal seats in metropolitan Melbourne.
It is the first time in more than a century that a government has won a seat from the opposition at a by-election.
The count remains underway but the ABC is projecting a swing toward Labor's Mary Doyle of around 6 per cent, from which the party will win the seat.
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Two hours into vote counting, the ABC's chief election analyst Antony Green said Labor's Mary Doyle appeared to have a clear lead over Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell.
"This is a devastating swing," Green said.
"Mary Doyle will be the first Labor member for Aston since 1990."
Both the major political parties consider Saturday night's decisive defeat of the Liberal Party very unexpected .... |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Dutton says "Victoria is a difficult market for us". |
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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Wow. Just got home from work. Bloody hell a drubbing.
Can’t understand how the Liberals did so poorly what with:
Dutton saying that Melbournians are too scared to eat out because of the Sudanese;
Dutton making fun of our neighbours in the South Pacific over climate change
https://youtu.be/rGMrGlAHUq0 ;
Dutton way over the top reaction to China as a Minister;
The sway of the conservative religious right in the Liberal Party;
Trying to parachute in an out of touch barrister who has zero to do with the electorate v a local everyday person (to the Outer East); and,
The legacy of the hypocritical Alan Tudge (Affairs, Robodebt….)
Marvellous result for the continually under-estimated Anthony Albanese.
How long has Dutton got left?
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| ^ Isn't the real question how long the Liberal Party has left? |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | ^ Isn't the real question how long the Liberal Party has left? |
😂 possibly but with Sky News and the other nutters saying they aren’t being conservative enough (it’s not conservatism they’re on about it’s extreme right wing religious nutters and the US style of extreme nutbaggery they wish to import they are on about: in short anything that is anti a so called left
wing) then the Libs will actively choose opposition.
In the bigger picture it’s swings and roundabouts; this time Libs who knows what the landscape looks like in 10 years time.
Having said that it’s great to see the right wing press that foreigner Murdoch again be irrelevant to an election. Marvellous.
The Libs need to back first home buyers, allow one house to be negatively geared but thereafter tax other investment properties using the $ to assist first home buyers. Menzies unlike the extremist think tank of the same name backed low interest rates for home buyers. In that way he single handedly stopped radicalisation by giving people the appearance of being stakeholders. The Libs should use some variation of that theme not the free market ideologues that also infect the current liberal party (IPA and the Menzies Institute) despite popular opinion Menzies was no fringe free marketeer ideologue who like the religious nutters have infected the Libs currently.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-02/peter-dutton-aston-by-election-loss-challenge-to-party/102177116
| Quote: | Labor’s bone-crushing, once-in-a-century victory in Aston points to an existential crisis for Peter Dutton’s depleted and withered Liberal Party.
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Within a decade, Melbourne will be the largest city in Australia. And, yet, the nearest bit of Liberal turf to the CBD is Bulleen, half an hour's drive to the east.
Between the GPO in Elizabeth St and the Heide Museum of Modern Art — where Sidney Nolan painted his Ned Kelly series — is a sea of red, green and teal.
Liberal blue is now found only in the Melbourne seats of Menzies, held by first-termer Keith Wolahan, and Deakin (Michael Sukkar). |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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What clearly isn't evident to the nutjobs trying to drive the Liberals further to the right is that
there clearly isn't an appetite for that far right rubbish among average Australians, despite their nosiy efforts to say otherwise.
Both Labor and Liberals primary vote has been falling for decades, but Labor gets elected off the back of the Greens. The only independants or other parties who make any kind of real dent aren't far right nuts, but other progressives like the Teals who were basically economic conservatives but socially progressive.
Surely if there was any kind of appetite for that stuff, it would show up with far right minor parties and/or independants getting good chunks of votes, but there isn't.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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What'sinaname 
Joined: 29 May 2010
Location: Living rent free
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^ More Australians voted for the Coalition than for the Labor Party in the 2022 Federal Election 5.2 vs 4.8 million. As you point out, winning is about getting preferences.
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Fighting against the objectification of woman. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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With One nation basically defunct, the Libs don't have a right wing ally to rely on like Labor has with the Greens.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| What'sinaname wrote: | | ^ More Australians voted for the Coalition than for the Labor Party in the 2022 Federal Election 5.2 vs 4.8 million. As you point out, winning is about getting preferences. |
In a preferential voting system who’d a thought preferences count 
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| stui magpie wrote: | | With One nation basically defunct, the Libs don't have a right wing ally to rely on like Labor has with the Greens. |
Some (don’t know how many) green voters are former ALP voters.
Libs are on the nose with:
Young people;
Women;
The Chinese community; and
Thinking people 😉
Libs /Nats are not on the nose with:
The religious conservatives;
White conservative males;
Shooters;
The Murdoch Press; and
Bec Judd 😜
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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doriswilgus
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Location: the great southern land
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | Dutton says "Victoria is a difficult market for us". |
I think the whole country is a difficult market for them at the moment. |
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swoop42 
Whatcha gonna do when he comes for you?
Joined: 02 Aug 2008
Location: The 18
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| What'sinaname wrote: | | ^ More Australians voted for the Coalition than for the Labor Party in the 2022 Federal Election 5.2 vs 4.8 million. As you point out, winning is about getting preferences. |
Who'd have thought that 2 parties combined scored more votes than 1.
Next you'll tell me that Essendon and Carlton together have more members than us.
In reality however....
1.25 million more people voted for Labor over Liberal.
The Greens gained 95,000 more votes than The Liberal National Party and The Nationals combined.
The Coalition is bloody fortunate however that all those Green votes only gain them 4 seats compared to 31.
Not sure how that's even remotely fair or representative of the people but hey that's electoral boundaries for you.
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He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD! |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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Interesting op ed from a Liberal Party apparatchik in The Age today:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/lessons-for-dutton-play-on-the-fringes-get-fringe-political-results-20230403-p5cxlc.html
The problem is that his fairly sensible suggestions (i.e. embracing the reality of climate change, not playing to the fringe anti-transgender vote, etc.) will likely only see him and those within the party who agree with him attacked by the party's right-wing factions and Sky News crowd in the same manner that Malcolm Turnbull and Matt Kean were. For them, the problem is that the Liberals aren't right-wing enough, and the path to success is to look to John Howard, Tony Abbott and maybe even Donald Trump.
Barry makes one specific suggestion that could potentially be a good policy in general, though (as opposed to just something for the Libs to take to an election):
| Quote: | At the moment there’s no bigger or more important economic policy than housing attainability. Housing attainability is the new political fault line in Australian politics.
That’s in part because in Australia we tax income punitively, but we tax wealth at nominal levels, and we’ve allowed wealth to accumulate in property as an asset and investment class through favourable tax concessions and superannuation treatments.
Rebalancing this equation by delivering income tax cuts for aspirational voters and a more reasonable taxation regime for asset-holders is one way we can get back into the mainstream conversation, particularly with Millennial voters. |
What do people make of that? Would it work to reduce inequality at all?
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All watched over by machines of loving grace
Last edited by David on Tue Apr 04, 2023 3:05 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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