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2020 US election results

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:28 pm
Post subject: 2020 US election resultsReply with quote

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/

This is a new thread in relation to the actual election votes. I will unlock it on the day. In the meantime, I've included fivethirtyeight's report about what might get counted meaningfully on the (US) night of the polls - and what you might reasonably take from those results, hour by hour.

Here's fivethirtyeight's conclusion:

Quote:
In total, if we stick to just the states where we are expected to get quick projections and where we are confident we know what those projections will be, Biden would have 192 electoral votes at this point and Trump would have 119. So it’s very possible that we will go to bed not knowing who has won the presidential election. Of course, it’s also possible that, if either Biden or Trump does better than we expect them to, they will win enough states on election night to be formally declared the winner.

Even if not, though, states like Florida where we think we’ll get results quickly but where both candidates have a shot will be strong indicators of who is on track to win. So even if we don’t have a winner on election night, that doesn’t mean we won’t have a pretty good idea.


Of course, 270 electoral votes are required to remain or become President, so, in substance, the prediction is, in substance, that - if the polls are in the ballpark - we won't know the outcome on the Tuesday night (Wednesday morning, AEDT).


Last edited by Pies4shaw on Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:21 am; edited 1 time in total
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:41 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's another helpful and unbiased but reasonably detailed explanation about the numbers - and the unknown unknowns - from fivethirtyeight. Despite the folksy title, it addresses much much more than that.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:54 pm
Post subject: Reply with quote

First numbers have come out in New Hampshire.

Dixville Notch, NH = Biden 5-0 Trump
- 2016 = Clinton 4-2 Trump (2 voted other)

Millsfield, NH = Biden 5-16 Trump
- 2016 = Clinton 4-16 Trump (1 voted other)

Trump currently leads the state 16-10 Razz

https://www.10tv.com/article/news/nation-world/dixville-notch-trump-biden-first-votes/507-09cccbc0-4d05-4be9-9598-c722b852d790

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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:17 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Here’s fivethirtyeight’s final forecast: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

At their close, they had Trump a 10% chance of winning, on the polling.
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think positive Libra

Side By Side


Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:10 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

That’s good interesting read, and it feels like a relief coming on! Hopefully there is t much rioting
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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:59 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

CNN calls Indiana for Trump.

Biden 0-11 Trump

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:30 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's hope the global economy wrecker gets moved on so we don't have to keep paying for his mistakes.

First, you vote in a reality TV clown and malignant narcissist with a trail of debt and bankruptcy. Then, you watch him flounder like a halfwit to protect his image as a pandemic sweeps the country. Then, you endure the resulting economic collapse and suffering as hundreds of thousands of people die.

Finally, you man up and correct your monumentally reckless and negligent error, having reflected on the time you failed to do this when you voted for wrecker George W. for a second time.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:31 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Update

Florida (59%) = Biden 49.4 - 49.7 Trump

Georgia (4%) = Biden 53.1 - 45.8 Trump

New Hampshire (2%) = Biden 59.2 - 40.3 Trump

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Lazza 



Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: Bendigo, Victoria, Australia

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:43 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Too close the call at this time. 50:50 chance.
My hunch fwiw is a Biden win, running away.
Trump needs a miracle to win but he has done this before.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:48 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Miami Dade County = Biden 54-45 Trump. Clinton won it 63-34 in 2016.

Biden doing well in Pinellas and Duval counties.

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:49 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Biden wins Vermont

Biden 3-11 Trump

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:00 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Biden wins Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware and District of Columbia.

Trump wins Oklahoma.

Biden 30-18 Trump

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:01 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Update

Florida (82%) = Biden 49.4 - 49.6 Trump

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Jezza Taurus



Joined: 05 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:04 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump wins Kentucky.

Biden 30-26 Trump

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Jezza Taurus



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:10 am
Post subject: Reply with quote

Biden doing well in Ohio so far.
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