Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

[Wokko]

All the 'success stories' are copping second waves.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1248576474883469312

[think positive]

[think positive]

[Jezza]

Japan to Pay Companies to Move Production Out of China

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/japan-to-pay-companies-to-move-production-out-of-china/

[K]

[K]

Bill Gates: TED Talk, March 2015, Vancouver:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

"If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war..."


[There are no excuses for the whole world being so unprepared. It was obvious this was going to happen at some point. In Australia, the first virus scare came in 1994. That's "only" a quarter of a century for Australia and the world to prepare...]

[Jezza]

Latest numbers

Confirmed (Deaths) - Recoveries

USA = 470,095 (16,733) - 26,522
Spain = 157,022 (15,843) - 55,668
Italy = 144,363 (18,349) - 28,470
Germany = 119,132 (2,589) - 47,077
France = 117,749 (12,210) - 23,206
China = 81,907 (3,336) - 77,468
Iran = 68,192 (4,232) - 35,465
UK = 65,077 (9,016) - 1,918
Turkey = 42,282 (908) - 2,142
Belgium = 26,667 (3,019) - 5,568
...........................................................
Australia = 6,215 (54) - 3,141

1,624,661 confirmed cases
98,350 deaths
363,684 recoveries

Australia:
- Confirmed cases = 6,215
---- New South Wales = 2,822
---- Victoria = 1,241
---- Queensland = 965
---- Western Australia = 506
---- South Australia = 428
---- Tasmania = 122
---- ACT = 103
---- NT = 28
- Deaths = 54
- Recoveries = 3,141
- Case fatality rate = 0.87%

Active Cases = 1,162,627
- USA = 426,840
- Italy = 97,544
- Spain = 85,511
- France = 82,333
- Germany = 69,466
- UK = 54,143
- Turkey = 35,568
- Iran = 28,495
- Netherlands = 20,836
- Belgium = 18,080
............................................
- Australia = 3,020

[Jezza]

AUSTRALIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

3/04/2020 = 5,362 (226) = 4%
4/04/2020 = 5,552 (190) = 4%
5/04/2020 = 5,693 (141) = 3%
6/04/2020 = 5,800 (107) = 2%
7/04/2020 = 5,919 (119) = 2%
8/04/2020 = 6,024 (105) = 2%
9/04/2020 = 6,109 (85) = 1%
10/04/2020 = 6,215 (106) = 2%

3,141 recovered, 54 deaths.

Cases doubling every 14 days.

594 cases of community transmission nationwide.

VICTORIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

3/04/2020 = 1,085 (49) = 5%
4/04/2020 = 1,115 (30) = 3%
5/04/2020 = 1,135 (20) = 2%
6/04/2020 = 1,158 (23) = 2%
7/04/2020 = 1,191 (33) = 3%
8/04/2020 = 1,212 (21) = 2%
9/04/2020 = 1,228 (16) = 1%
10/04/2020 = 1,241 (13) = 1%

926 recovered, 13 deaths.

Cases doubling every 13 days in Victoria.

116 cases of community transmission in Victoria.

[K]

Scientists at odds after study finds coronavirus antibody puzzle

https://www.theage.com.au/national/scientists-at-odds-after-study-finds-coronavirus-antibody-anomaly-20200410-p54iwm.html

"Some patients who recover from COVID-19 develop very few antibodies, a new early-stage study suggests, raising questions over the development of a vaccine and whether people get lasting immunity.

Nearly a third of 175 patients studied produced low antibody levels. In 10 people, antibody levels were so low they could not be detected.

What this means for the fight against COVID-19 is unclear and experts differ on how to interpret the findings.

Some called them expected and reassuring, while others raised questions about what they mean for the development of a vaccine – or whether people who recover from the virus develop lasting immunity.
...

In the study, antibody levels seemed to rise dramatically 10 days after infection, reaching a peak five days later.

Older patients seemed to produce higher levels of antibodies than younger patients.

About a third of patients in the study developed antibody levels the researchers characterised as “very low”.

But all patients got over the virus and recovered just as quickly, no matter their subsequent antibody levels. That suggests the immune system is using a much wider arsenal of weapons to attack the virus, also known as SARS-CoV-2."


The preprint (unreviewed of course) is here:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365v1

[think positive]

[think positive]

[think positive]

Hey Jezza, or K, so those stats every day, does the recovery get taken from the known cases? So right now 315 are now known sick with it in Victoria?

[K]

"Antibody tests look for two antibodies in the blood, immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG). IgM antibodies are the first line of defense, appearing within several days of infection. IgG antibodies come later, as the body is clearing up the infection.

IgM and IgG antibodies fight all kinds of infections. The blood tests for COVID-19 look for a protein particular to this coronavirus, which shows whether the body is producing antibodies to it and not, for example, the seasonal flu.
...

There have been 223 deaths related to COVID-19 in the county, according to the health department. If, based on the antibody study, researchers determine that about 2,500 people had been infected, it would be considered a deadly disease. But if more than 2 million people had been infected, it wouldn't be considered that dangerous.

“If we find out COVID is far less deadly than the flu, we can open up the economy. You don’t need to hit herd immunity to open it up.” Sood said. “But if you find out that COVID is 10 times deadlier than the flu, then you have to keep it closed.”
...

Antibody tests can also identify people who had COVID-19 but didn't have any symptoms — a group that may be much larger than we know.

“There’s some data out there that 15% to 16% of kids have had asymptomatic infections. They could be the secret spreaders. But without tests, we don’t know,” said Mark Slifka, a professor of viral immunology at Oregon Health and Science University in Portland, Oregon.
...

But Dr. Raed Dweik, chairman of the Respiratory Institute at the Cleveland Clinic, said some of the tests he's seen aren't accurate enough to determine if someone is truly immune to the coronavirus.

This is because antibodies for the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 look very similar to antibodies that respond to coronaviruses that cause other illnesses, such as the common cold."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/10/coronavirus-antibody-testing-what-it-can-reopen-us-economy/5128996002/


[But if you find that 10 times more people are infected, so it's 10 times less deadly, it's still the same number of deaths, so how is that different? ]

[K]

[Pies4shaw]

The US has just ticked over the 500,000 "official" cases mark. In the next 24 hours, the US is going to overtake Italy in the "most deaths" category.