Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

[stui magpie]

I won't argue, I'm thinking you have a far closer association with that word than I or they do.

[Jezza]

Last 7 days (Top 20)

New cases:
1. USA = 138,805
2. Brazil = 105,406
3. Russia = 62,401
4. India = 40,898
5. Peru = 24,496
6. Chile = 24,418
7. Mexico = 20,472
8. Saudi Arabia = 16,872
9. UK = 16,409
10. Iran = 14,908
11. Pakistan = 13,739
12. Bangladesh = 11,670
13. Qatar = 11,601
14. Canada = 8,010
15. Belarus = 6,651
16. South Africa = 6,415
17. Turkey = 6,199
18. UAE = 6,023
19. Kuwait = 5,811
20. Colombia = 5,046

New deaths:
1. USA = 6,376
2. Brazil = 5,910
3. Mexico = 2,301
4. UK = 1,707
5. Spain = 978
6. Russia = 970
7. India = 901
8. Peru = 715
9. Italy = 708
10. Canada = 633
11. France = 410
12. Iran = 389
13. Sweden = 382
14. Ecuador = 364
15. Germany = 276
16. Pakistan = 258
17. Chile = 252
18. Belgium = 226
19. Indonesia = 197
20. Turkey = 170

[Jezza]

Latest numbers

Confirmed (Deaths) - Recoveries

USA = 1,709,467 (99,909) - 465,673
Brazil = 377,390 (23,897) - 153,833
Russia = 362,342 (3,807) - 131,129
UK = 265,227 (37,048) - Unknown
Spain = 235,400 (26,834) - 150,376
Italy = 230,158 (32,877) - 141,981
France = 182,942 (28,432) - 65,199
Germany = 181,068 (8,469) - 160,971
Turkey = 157,814 (4,369) - 120,015
India = 149,821 (4,210) - 63,439
...........................................................
Australia = 7,133 (102) - 6,553

5,578,909 confirmed cases
349,135 deaths
2,331,811 recoveries

**Spain's numbers revised down slightly.

Australia:
- Confirmed cases = 7,133
---- New South Wales = 3,092
---- Victoria = 1,610
---- Queensland = 1,057
---- Western Australia = 570
---- South Australia = 440
---- Tasmania = 228
---- ACT = 107
---- NT = 29
- Deaths = 102
- Recoveries = 6,553
- Case fatality rate = 1.43%

Active Cases = 2,897,963
- USA = 1,143,885
- Russia = 227,406
- Brazil = 199,660
- UK = 127,151 (estimate), 222,766 (maximum)
- France = 89,311
- India = 82,172
- Peru = 69,401
- Spain = 58,190
- Italy = 55,300
- Chile = 43,934
............................................
- Australia = 478

**(Maximum) = Recovery numbers are not counted, so only subtracts the number of deaths from the total number of confirmed cases.

[Jezza]

AUSTRALIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

19/05/2020 = 7,068 (8] = 0.1%
20/05/2020 = 7,079 (11) = 0.2%
21/05/2020 = 7,081 (2) = 0.03%
22/05/2020 = 7,095 (14) = 0.2%
23/05/2020 = 7,111 (16) = 0.2%
24/05/2020 = 7,114 (3) = 0.04%
25/05/2020 = 7,118 (4) = 0.1%
26/05/2020 = 7,133 (15) = 0.2%

6,553 recovered, 102 deaths.

Cases doubling every 59 days.

619 cases of community transmission nationwide.

478 active cases.

ACT and NT have no active cases.

VICTORIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

19/05/2020 = 1,573 (6) = 0.4%
20/05/2020 = 1,580 (7) = 0.4%
21/05/2020 = 1,581 (1) = 0.1%
22/05/2020 = 1,593 (12) = 0.8%
23/05/2020 = 1,602 (9) = 0.6%
24/05/2020 = 1,603 (1) = 0.1%
25/05/2020 = 1,605 (2) = 0.1%
26/05/2020 = 1,610 (5) = 0.3%

1,533 recovered, 19 deaths.

Cases doubling every 57 days in Victoria.

182 cases of community transmission in Victoria.

58 active cases.

[K]

The world sacrificed its elderly in the race to protect hospitals. The result was a catastrophe in care homes

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/26/world/elderly-care-homes-coronavirus-intl/index.html

"Many governments are just starting to record death tolls in care homes -- and the figures are staggering.

Data published on LTCcovid shows that more than half of all coronavirus deaths in nations including Belgium, France, Ireland, Canada and Norway occurred in care homes or among care home residents in all settings. ... Care home residents are also overrepresented in ​some countries with relatively few deaths, accounting for 26 out of ​the first 99 deaths documented in Australia, or more than a quarter of all fatalities through May 18.
...

"France, Spain, and Italy were overwhelmed by the virus very quickly," said lead LSE researcher Adelina Comas-Herrera, from the university's care policy and evaluation center. "They were the first countries in Europe to have these problems on a big scale. And I think they offered a lot of lessons that ideally could have been learned in other European countries."
...

Raffaele Antonelli Incalzi, head of the Italian geriatric society SIGG, said in a statement in early April that care homes were "biological time bombs," in part because overcrowded hospitals were moving elderly patients to unprepared homes.
...

The Lombardy government told CNN it is not giving interviews on "the nursing home issue," due to an ongoing independent investigation into the region's high number of care home deaths that it launched on April 7.
...

Some hospitals had sent residents back to the homes without a coronavirus test and staff had to isolate alongside residents, with PPE in short supply, Richards said. She said it felt "immoral" asking "terrified" staff -- some on the UK national minimum wage of £8.72 ($10.66) per hour -- to look after people with Covid-19. She said some of her staff had been in tears, adding that she had not yet seen any of the government's emergency funding to help with spiraling costs.
...

The UK initially did not record care home deaths. While the latest official ONS data for England and Wales shows that 38% of coronavirus deaths occurred in care homes, LTCcovid said the figure could be far higher.
...

They calculated that there were 25,591 excess deaths among care home residents in England and Wales between March 9 and May 8 -- 52% of 49,470 total excess deaths.
...

A criminal investigation was launched after 31 residents died at Herron Seniors' Residence in less than a month, five of them confirmed Covid-19 cases. Quebec officials said most of the staff had abandoned the home and residents were found unfed and unchanged in what looked like a case of gross negligence.

LTCcovid's report found that 3,890 of Canada's 4,740 coronavirus-linked deaths took place among care home residents as of May 8, or 82%, and Health Canada told CNN the percentage was nearly 80% on May 19. Canada's largest province, Ontario, has announced an independent inquiry.

Another troubling incident took place at a care home in the Southern Ile-de-France region. According to research for ​publication in the Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, at least 24 of 140 residents died in five days after they were isolated in their rooms with the coronavirus, without help eating or drinking. Most died from hypovolemic shock after loss of blood and body fluids, the report said."


Country || Care home resident deaths as % of total

Norway | 58%
Ireland | 54%
Belgium | 51%
France | 51%
Sweden | 49%
Portugal | 40%
UK | 38%
Germany | 37%
Denmark | 34%
Hungary | 24%

[K]

The key to stopping covid-19? Addressing airborne transmission.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/26/key-stopping-covid-19-addressing-airborne-transmission/

"But you probably haven’t heard anything about airborne transmission, which many organizations have largely ignored.

That’s a mistake. Airborne transmission — caused by small particles that can linger in the air for extended periods of time, unlike droplets from coughs, which settle quickly — is key to understanding why this disease spreads so rapidly in certain circumstances. It’s also key to figuring out how best to reopen our country.

... The explosive transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, as well as other coronavirus outbreaks, constituted telltale signs that airborne transmission was happening. Close contact transmission was likely happening on that cruise ship, but the disease had spread far more quickly than non-airborne diseases typically spread.

Since then, evidence has continuously pointed to airborne transmission of covid-19, as my colleague Linsey Marr and I outline in a recent paper*. Scientists have detected the virus in places that can be reached only by air, such as ductwork; asymptomatic transmission is occurring, meaning people are spreading this without coughing or sneezing large droplets; and basic aerosol physics shows that people shed an entire continuum of particles when they cough, sneeze or talk, including large particles that settle out quickly and smaller ones that stay afloat for hours.
...

... we do know that when people sing, they emit as many aerosol particles as they do when they’re coughing.
...

It’s past time we put the pieces together and acknowledge the scientific record on airborne transmission of covid-19. Only once we do this can we take control of the super-spreading events that are driving the epidemic."


* https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202005.0126/v1

[Pies4shaw]

The US passed 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus (presently 304 deaths per million people). After saying last month that he expected 50,000 to 60,000 deaths, the Trump media machine has shifted to claiming “victory” because 2.2 million people didn’t die. Extraordinary times.

[K]

What's happening in that country is diabolical.

Don't forget that the true death toll there is now likely at least 140,000.

--------------------

Back in AU, COVID app downloads passed six million a couple of days ago.

[Pies4shaw]

The current standings amongst countries with population over 100 million (other than China, for which there is no reliable data) are:

USA 304 deaths per million (100,540 deaths)
Brazil 111 (23,622)
Mexico 59 (7,663)
Russia 26 (3,807)
Phillipines 8 (886)
Egypt 8 (797)
Japan 7 (846)
Indonesia 5 (1,418)
Pakistan 5 (1,197)
India 3 (4,349)
Bangladesh 3 (522)
Nigeria 1 (233)
Ethiopia 0.05 (6).

If one looks at death rates in States, the US presently has the 4 worst in the world for discretely governed populations over 100,000 people (putting China aside because there is no reliable data):

New York 1,512 deaths per million
New Jersey 1,261
Connecticut 1,057
Massachusetts 939.

In terms of the “death table“, the US is over 63,500 ahead of the UK (37,048). Italy (32,955), France (28,530), Spain (27,117) and Brazil (24,512). No other country (except perhaps China - about which there is no reliable data) has registered 10,000 or more deaths.

[stui magpie]

Personally I don't trust Russia's data for similar reasons to China, they choose what to release depending on how they want it to reflect on their leadership.

I'm also uneasy about India's data for different reasons. I don't believe they would be deliberately lying, they just have large concentrations of very poor people that my suspicion is there are large numbers sick and dead who never saw a doctor and therefore weren't recorded.

Brazil is really coming hard, 14k new cases and almost 1k new deaths overnight.

[Pies4shaw]

Yes, Brazil is also a basket case. As you probably know, Worldometer links to detailed projections by Washington’s IHME for cases, deaths etc in the US, State by State to August 4th. The IHME has detailed projections for other places, not all of which is linked from the Worldometer site. The IHME has very recently published revised projections for Brazil (made 26 May, our time) estimating 125,833 likely total deaths by 4 August, with a range between 68,311 and 221,078. That revision is tucked away here: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates (if you look at the presently linked IHME country data for Brazil, it still has the last iteration of the modelling, with a projected total of 88,305 deaths).

[Pies4shaw]

A 30 year old man from Queensland has died.

But not, it seems, of COVID-19: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/01/queensland-man-thought-to-be-youngest-australian-to-die-of-covid-19-returns-negative-test

So, the death total in Australia is still 102.

[stui magpie]

^

And he only tested positive after death. I understand he'd been unwell for a few weeks but never got treatment or tested. If he had of, he may well be alive.

[Jezza]

CDC: Coronavirus death rate likely just 0.26%

[stui magpie]

^

But, if we're saying that Covid19 has a lethality rate around double that of the seasonal flu, we have a vaccine for flu and we don't for Covid19.

Doesn't that suggest that if you take the vaccine out of it their lethality is far close?