Can we kick enough goals in 2020?

[LaurieHolden]

In order to be in contention for a flag, offensively we’ll need to improve our game-day scoreboard impact from our core forward 6-8 and kick 200-220 for the season. (Cox 30, JDG 50, Elliott, 25, Mihocek 35, Reid 15, Stephenson 50, Thomas 15) That’d be 220 from the key forwards and you’d expect around 100-125 from the midfield / interchange group. Edging towards 330 goals sets you up for a tilt.

Stat's

C: Treloar (96 goals : 81 behinds @ 0.91 avg), Pendlebury (178 goals : 109 behinds @ 0.59 avg), Sidebottom (161 goals : 111 behinds @ 0.69 avg)

FOLL: Grundy (43 goals : 46 behinds @ 0.33 avg), Wills (1 goals : 3 behinds @ 0.07 avg), Adams (50 goals : 39 behinds @ 0.38 avg)

HF: Mihocek (65 goals : 44 behinds @ 1.63 avg), Reid (70 goals : 48 behinds @ 0.47 avg), Stephenson (62 goals : 37 behinds @ 1.55 avg)

F: Thomas (85 goals : 40 behinds @ 0.96 avg), JDG (118 goals : 70 behinds @ 1.34 avg), Elliott (164 goals : 86 behinds @ 1.56 avg)

I/C: Phillips (39 goals : 29 behinds @ 0.53 avg), Cox (71 goals : 34 behinds @ 1.22 avg), WHE (121 goals : 69 behinds @ 1.02 avg), C Brown (13 goals : 15 behinds @ 0.37 avg)

EMG from : T Brown, Bianco, Broomhead (27 goals : 20 behinds @ 0.45 avg), Daicos (7 goals : 5 behinds @ 0.41 avg)

INJ: Varcoe (170 goals : 107 behinds @ 0.77 avg)


Where do Nicksters see the improvement?
What concerns you?
Whom is the wild card?

e.g.
Does JDG crack 50?
Will WHE or Thomas get back to form?
Will one of the EMG come up to play a role?

Go...

[The Weed]

Moore to CHF and Keane to CHB. I don’t want to hear about how much more likely he is to injure himself at CHF. If he can’t play without that hanging over his head then I don’t want to re-sign him.

We need a KEY forward’

[LaurieHolden]

[What'sinaname]

Great thread....

I think Steve will struggle to kick 50 now that he'll get more attention from opposition backmen.

What's alarming in the above figures is 45 goals from the Cox / Reid combo. That's the weakness there. I think we need 50-60 goals from one of our tall forwards, maybe 4 goals per game between them, meaning we need Cox / Reid to kick 90 goals.

I know Cox relieves in the ruck, but if Reid can't hold up his end of the bargain, then I am not sure why he is in the starting 22. He need to kick about 40 goals this year.

[The Weed]

[LaurieHolden]

[/quote]Keane is 194 (6’4”+)[/quote]

In looking at our likely finals opposition, GWS, Richmond, Bulldogs, WCE all have multiple options up forward taller than 6'4".
Within our defence, only Moore and Roughead fit this bill.

Keane would be giving away 2-3", hence having him on a flank is preferred. Also, taking a young player whom hasn't yet played a senior game to quell a key position role is a risk. Play him on the flank for 10-15 games and we'll find out soon enough if he can take on the competitions best forwards come September.

Reid may yet play a part in this defensive mix?

You're dead right though, we need a true key forward. There lies the problem with JDG. Run him through the middle and we lose true A grade potency and x-factor inside 50.
Moore fits the bill and is perhaps our best option to improve our forward po trency and deliver match winning ability. Is he capable of kicking bags against the oppostions best defenders in September?

Pity we couldn't afford a Finlayson or Himmelburg.

[Pies2016]

Probably the best way to improve your collective goal kicking is to create opportunities from better positions within the forward line. We got our goals a lot easier in 2018. We got a lot out the back and plenty from inside the 20 metre arc. Pretty sure we lead the comp in that stat.
We lost our shape in 2019 and got sucked up the ground. That’s partly opposition strategy and also the fact that so many of our preferred starting six
forwards missed a a fair chunk of footy.

I keep it saying it repeatedly though, effective forwards are only by products of effective midfields. We need to be winning in midfield first before we can entertain improving our forward line.
Win the midfield battle and get our preferred starting six forwards on the park together and the improvement will occur very quickly.

[Raw Hammer]

WHE and JT has poor 2019 season compared to 2018. We don’t have enough players who can kick goals from 50 or outside 50 on the run. The amount of balls that fall short is staggering. If JDG (and Elliott) don’t play a majority of the season, we’re screwed.

[stui magpie]

Just testing this idea that 330 goals per season sets you up.

Last season, Brisbane scored the most points for, with 2004 in the home and away season. Including finals, they kicked 307 goals, 307 behinds.

Richmond only scored 7 points for more than us for the H&A season, 1892 to 1885.

For the season inc finals, Richmond kicked 322 goals 271 behinds. Average scores of 12.9 goals 10.9 behinds for and 10.6 goals 9.5 behinds to their opponent.

We kicked 290 goals 258 points for the season. Average scores of 12.1 goals 10.7 behinds for and 10.2 goals 9.9 behinds to our opponent.

So we're basically 0.8 goals per game behind Richmond.

Cox averaged 1.4 goals per game last year but only played 14 games

Stevo averaged 1.7 goals per game but also only played 14 games.

Jordy averaged 2 goals per game, down on his average of 2.3 in 2018, and only played 17 games.

The bonus was Billy who was right on his average of 1.6 goals per game and played 16 games after none in 2018.

If we can keep that 4 fit and on the park for 20+ games each, that's all the improved scoring we need

[WarrenerraW]

We have an array of goal kicking options but it's the consistency to kick goals that lets us down as well as the delivery into the forward line. Also, what's our best forward set up.... it changes all the time cos of bloody injuries so that doesn't help.

We need to set up our play better to give our forwards the best chance and hit targets who are in a prime position to score and not 30 metres out on a 45 degree angle.

Elliott and JDG need to find a way to work together because they almost get in the way of each other. Stepho will always bob up for 1-2 a game but Cox needs to lift this year and be a more damaging presence up forward. Time and time again he gets out bodied or positioned and most of the time he's illegally pushed out of the contest or double teamed.

One particular deficiency I think is our lack of a genuine crumbing forward because they all want to be the hero and take the big grab.

[Pies4shaw]

The following link to AFL tables enables one to see, season by season, how much Collingwood has scored and had scored against it during the home and away and, separately, in the finals: https://afltables.com/afl/teams/collingwood/season.html

Our defence improved significantly last year (scoring against Collingwood was nearly down to 2011 levels). Indeed, our backline allowed less to be scored against it - just 230 goals - during the home and away than in any year (other than 2011) since we started playing 22 rounds.

By contrast, our 2019 home and away scoring - 274 goals - was historically deplorable. To put it into context, we have not made a Grand Final since 1966 (when there were only 18 matches in a season, the game was completely different and you could keep the opposition - as we did - to under 10 goals per game on average) after a home and away season in which we kicked under 300 goals. In fact, our 274 goals in 2019 is right there amongst some historically awful years, including some dreadful seasons that followed Travis Cloke's decline. The outlier is 2018 - that season we kicked exactly 300 goals, on the back of 90 goals from JDG and WHE, 76 from Thomas and Stephenson and 54 from Mihocek and Cox. In 2019, it was just 53 and 46 from those first two pairings (Cek and Cox managed slightly better - 55) and Elliott was our 3rd-leading goalkicker with 26. So, our genuine forwards dropped their 2019 output from 220 goals produced by our our best 6 to just 180 produced by our best 7.

So, we plainly need better all-round scoring output. One can see how Stephenson, Elliott, Cox and possibly WHE (I say "possibly" because he was poor in the first pre-season game) can produce more (they all had interrupted seasons) but JDG needs to move gradually into the midfield, Thomas has probably had his best season and it would be unreasonable to expect more than 1.5 goals a game from Cek, given his role, background and historical performance.

The slack really has to be taken up by the young players coming through. I'm not sure which of them is most likely, though.

[Pies2016]

The general theme in this thread seems to be that we probably do have the personnel to kick winning scores deep into Sept but the injuries to our preferred front six in 2019 was problematic to kicking a winning score.
I believe ( like others ) we do have the cattle, we just need to get them all herded into the same paddock.
We also shouldn’t underestimate the Cameron pick up.
If Grundy can’t play, at least we can hold our shape with Cox remaining as a forward while Cameron replaces Grundy. Same with Cox, if he is injured or not up to it, now we can replace him with Cameron and not rely on Checkers having to punch above his weight.

In 2018, we lost the G F because our midfield was poor. In 2019, we missed out on playing in a G F because our midfield was beaten. You can be the best key forward in the last 100 years but that won’t help you if your own midfield doesn’t get enough of the ball.

[LaurieHolden]

^^

Yes, that's the answer I'm struggling to find, where do we find material improvement? How do we increase the quality of our entries into the F50 arc.

Do we run Sidebottom off a HFF? He's one that could be very damaging delivering to inside 50. He works hard, makes good decisions, and most importantly executes well. His his calmness and football nous is enhanced by his ability on both feet which sets him apart from your average footballer. When you're not cornered on one side, it gives you more options.
Being able to fire from either foot opens up the ground for your teammates. It means, as a forward, you can present to the space that suits you, rather than the preferred foot of the kicker.
This is also what makes JDG so dangerous, he's equally balanced on either side. For defenders, it means positioning becomes much more difficult. It’s harder to read the play when a player can turn both ways.

In moving Sidey forward we'd need fresh solutions on the wings / flanks. In solutions I mean better ball users e.g. Bianco & Daicos whom are capable on either foot. Bianco’s kicking especially was viewed as one of the best in the NAB League as he often picks the right option and weights his kicks perfectly.
I've long been critical of the likes of Phillips disposal, hence having him only holding onto an I/C spot. I couldn't give a stuff if he can run all day, I'd much prefer better quality entries into the F50 arc off either foot.

So that's where I'm at. Give these kids a run at the expense of the likes of Phillips and Thomas and see what that uncovers. I can see one of those two cemeting a spot by the mid-season break.

[Pies4shaw]

I don't think we do have the personnel to kick winning scores consistently deep into September. Last year, we thrashed Geelong for most of the night but won by only 10 points because we could only scrape together 9 goals for the night. The other game was played in appalling conditions but we still only managed 7 goals. In 2018, we managed 10 goals, 9 goals, 15 goals and 11 goals. Over our 6 September since we got back to the Finals, the Richmond result seems to be the outlier.

We need a genuine key-forward target. Preferably 2. I don't really think having a mature-aged rookie FB and a category B rookie who didn't play the game growing up is any substitute for having an an epoch-defining key forward or two.

The fact of the matter is that, however we over-rate our forwards, none of them is "the best key forward in the last 100 years". They're just good ordinary players.

It's critical to all of this to appreciate that our defence last year performed at historically-high, outlier levels, most weeks. We won a Finals game and almost won another because we kept the opposition to 7 goals and 8 goals. The front half of our "set-position" team was mostly execrable when it mattered.

[LaurieHolden]