Coronavirus II : The Virus Strikes Back

[think positive]

[Jezza]

Last 7 days (Top 20)

New cases:
1. USA = 382,460
2. Brazil = 214,234
3. India = 172,887
4. South Africa = 71,941
5. Russia = 45,717
6. Mexico = 42,685
7. Colombia = 29,783
8. Bangladesh = 21,412
9. Peru = 20,845
10. Saudi Arabia = 20,695
11. Argentina = 19,839
12. Pakistan = 19,095
13. Iraq = 17,056
14. Chile = 16,638
15. Iran = 16,485
16. Indonesia = 12,346
17. Kazakhstan = 12,072
18. Oman = 10,571
19. Philippines = 9,672
20. Israel = 9,013

New deaths:
1. Brazil = 6,082
2. Mexico = 4,372
3. USA = 4,319
4. India = 3,289
5. Iran = 1,280
6. Russia = 1,120
7. Peru = 1,102
8. Colombia = 1,096
9. South Africa = 670
10. Iraq = 660
11. Chile = 590
12. Pakistan = 481
13. Egypt = 446
14. UK = 439
15. Indonesia = 401
16. Bolivia = 390
17. Philippines = 294
18. Argentina = 282
19. Bangladesh = 273
20. Saudi Arabia = 266

[Jezza]

Latest numbers

Confirmed (Deaths) - Recoveries

USA = 3,483,362 (138,331) - 1,550,471
Brazil = 1,888,889 (72,950) - 1,213,512
India = 933,450 (24,281) - 590,219
Russia = 739,947 (11,614) - 512,825
Peru = 330,123 (12,054) - 221,008
Chile = 317,657 (7,024) - 286,556
Mexico = 304,435 (35,491) - 189,063
UK = 290,133 (44,830) - Unknown
South Africa = 287,796 (4,172) - 138,241
Iran = 262,173 (13,211) - 225,270
...........................................................
Australia = 10,251 (110) - 7,835

13,245,879 confirmed cases
576,979 deaths
7,693,843 recoveries

Australia:
- Confirmed cases = 10,251
---- Victoria = 4,224
---- New South Wales = 3,505
---- Queensland = 1,071
---- Western Australia = 636
---- South Australia = 443
---- Tasmania = 228
---- ACT = 113
---- NT = 31
- Deaths = 110
- Recoveries = 7,835
- Case fatality rate = 1.07%

Active Cases = 4,975,057
- USA = 1,794,560
- Brazil = 602,427
- India = 318,950
- Russia = 215,508
- South Africa = 145,383
- Peru = 97,061
- Bangladesh = 84,406
- Colombia = 83,013
- Mexico = 79,881
- Pakistan = 77,628
............................................
- Australia = 1,864

**(Maximum) = Recovery numbers are not counted, so only subtracts the number of deaths from the total number of confirmed cases.

[Jezza]

AUSTRALIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

7/07/2020 = 8,755 (169) = 2.0%
8/07/2020 = 8,886 (131) = 1.5%
9/07/2020 = 9,059 (173) = 1.9%
10/07/2020 = 9,359 (300) = 3.3%
11/07/2020 = 9,553 (194) = 2.1%
12/07/2020 = 9,797 (244) = 2.6%
13/07/2020 = 9,980 (183) = 1.9%
14/07/2020 = 10,251 (271) = 2.7%

7,835 recovered, 110 deaths.

Cases doubling every 103 days.

1,181 cases of community transmission nationwide.

1,864 active cases.

South Australia and Tasmania have no active cases.

VICTORIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

7/07/2020 = 2,824 (164) = 6.2%
8/07/2020 = 2,942 (118) = 4.2%
9/07/2020 = 3,098 (156) = 5.3%
10/07/2020 = 3,379 (281) = 9.1%
11/07/2020 = 3,560 (181) = 5.4%
12/07/2020 = 3,799 (239) = 6.7%
13/07/2020 = 3,967 (168) = 4.4%
14/07/2020 = 4,224 (257) = 6.5%

2,395 recovered, 26 deaths.

Cases doubling every 14 days in Victoria.

752 cases of community transmission in Victoria.

1,803 active cases.

[think positive]

i wonder what the real number is if we all get tested...

[David]

[Pies4shaw]

111: A woman in her 90s has died from COVID-19 in Victoria.

[Pies4shaw]

238 new cases in Victoria, 29 linked to known outbreaks and 209 are under investigation. That's a net increase of 224 cases (14 previous cases have been reclassified).

There are now 1,931 active cases in Victoria (there were 93 recoveries in the last 24 hours), with 105 people hospitalised, 27 of those in ICU.

There were 27,040 tests in the last 24 hours, so the 238 new cases mean that the positive test result rate is 0.88%.

[Morrigu]

Interesting that there are now several reputable studies with good sample size that are showing that herd immunity is very unlikely due to the number of confirmed positive cases that don’t demonstrate high titres of antibodies post infection (especially in those who were asymptomatic) and even in those that do have a potent response and strong titres these drop quite rapidly ( a few weeks) post infection.

IMO this is likely to have a major impact on the effectiveness of convalescent plasma as donors have to be 28 days clear - we are participating in this trial so I suppose we will see.

[Jezza]

Victoria

Confirmed Cases:
- 1). Hume = 464
- 2). Wyndham = 362
- 3). Melbourne = 334
- 4). Moonee Valley = 319
- 5). Brimbank = 315
- 6). Moreland = 234
- 7). Banyule = 162
- 8]. Casey = 155
- 9). Whittlesea = 153
- 10). Melton = 145

Active Cases:
- 1). Wyndham = 249
- 2). Hume = 235
- 3). Melbourne = 209
- 4). Moonee Valley = 209
- 5). Brimbank = 156
- 6). Moreland = 111
- 7). Whittlesea = 71
- 8]. Melton = 69
- 9). Banyule = 63
- 10). Maribyrnong = 59

New Cases Today:
- 1). Wyndham = 29
- 2). Moonee Valley = 22
- 3). Moreland = 22
- 4). Hume = 16
- 5). Banyule = 13
- 6). Brimbank = 12
- 7). Yarra = 12
- 8]. Melton = 11
- 9). Maribyrnong = 10
- 10). Hobsons Bay = 9

[Jezza]

Latest numbers

Confirmed (Deaths) - Recoveries

USA = 3,549,519 (139,202) - 1,601,030
Brazil = 1,933,655 (74,336) - 1,213,512
India = 957,119 (24,703) - 604,765
Russia = 746,369 (11,770) - 523,249
Peru = 333,867 (12,229) - 223,261
Chile = 319,493 (7,069) - 289,220
Mexico = 311,486 (36,327) - 189,063
South Africa = 298,292 (4,346) - 146,279
UK = 291,373 (44,968) - Unknown
Iran = 264,561 (13,410) - 227,561
...........................................................
Australia = 10,495 (111) - 7,928

13,469,946 confirmed cases
582,631 deaths
7,825,983 recoveries

Australia:
- Confirmed cases = 10,495
---- Victoria = 4,448
---- New South Wales = 3,517
---- Queensland = 1,071
---- Western Australia = 644
---- South Australia = 443
---- Tasmania = 228
---- ACT = 113
---- NT = 31
- Deaths = 111
- Recoveries = 7,928
- Case fatality rate = 1.06%

Active Cases = 5,061,332
- USA = 1,809,287
- Brazil = 645,807
- India = 327,651
- Russia = 211,350
- South Africa = 147,667
- Peru = 98,377
- Mexico = 86,096
- Bangladesh = 85,610
- Colombia = 85,467
- Pakistan = 77,573
............................................
- Australia = 2,010

**(Maximum) = Recovery numbers are not counted, so only subtracts the number of deaths from the total number of confirmed cases.

[Jezza]

AUSTRALIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

8/07/2020 = 8,886 (131) = 1.5%
9/07/2020 = 9,059 (173) = 1.9%
10/07/2020 = 9,359 (300) = 3.3%
11/07/2020 = 9,553 (194) = 2.1%
12/07/2020 = 9,797 (244) = 2.6%
13/07/2020 = 9,980 (183) = 1.9%
14/07/2020 = 10,251 (271) = 2.7%
15/07/2020 = 10,495 (244) = 2.4%

7,928 recovered, 111 deaths.

Cases doubling every 103 days.

1,217 cases of community transmission nationwide.

2,010 active cases.

South Australia and Tasmania have no active cases.

VICTORIA

Date = Confirmed Cases (New Cases) = Percentage of new cases

8/07/2020 = 2,942 (118) = 4.2%
9/07/2020 = 3,098 (156) = 5.3%
10/07/2020 = 3,379 (281) = 9.1%
11/07/2020 = 3,560 (181) = 5.4%
12/07/2020 = 3,799 (239) = 6.7%
13/07/2020 = 3,967 (168) = 4.4%
14/07/2020 = 4,224 (257) = 6.5%
15/07/2020 = 4,448 (224) = 5.3%

2,488 recovered, 27 deaths.

Cases doubling every 14 days in Victoria.

790 cases of community transmission in Victoria.

1,931 active cases.

[think positive]

its not getting any better is it?
but could that also be because more people have now been tested?

[Pies4shaw]

It does seem to be getting better, actually. First, the positive testing results being reported remain low (under 1% of tests) and are still going to be from people who were infected some time ago. That is, yesterday’s tests don’t reflect yesterday’s social distancing, they reflect transmissions that occurred some days ago. Secondly, the fact that we aren’t seeking an exponential progression is an indication that the tightened restrictions may be having an impact. If Victoria were to move rapidly from 200 to 400 to 1,600 new cases per day etc, that would be a source for very grave concern.

By way of an example, Arizona recorded 222 new cases on May 25 and May 26. By May 30, the number was 790 new cases and by 5 June it was 1,579 new cases. Fast forward to 1 July and the number of new cases per day was pushing 5,000. It has eased a little, as a result of some tightened policies but the “plateau” there is presently over 3,000 new cases per day and there were 97 deaths there in the last 24 hours.

Also, we know from the experiences of many countries in diverse regions that the COVID-19 “peak” is reached very rapidly but, once reached, tends to be followed by a very slow and gradual decline. So, by way of a specific example, we no longer focus on New York - it is long past it’s April “peak” - but that State is still experiencing over 800 new cases per day on average and around 25 to 30 new deaths every day (33 yesterday). The key to “stopping” this virus seems to be to limit its initial “community penetration”. Once it is seriously out and about, it is very difficult to extinguish. Putting the brakes on before we reached 200 cases was obviously a good idea. Whether that was quite early enough, it is probably too soon to tell (we will only know that if/when new cases per day start and sustain a gradual reduction).

[Dark Beanie]

Thanks for that P4S, I was wondering about the % of positive tests and what would be considered a low number.

As usual there are companies trying to take advantage of a situation to make money:

https://www.choice.com.au/health-and-body/beauty-and-personal-care/skin-care-and-cosmetics/articles/mosaic-brands-hand-sanitiser-fails-nmi-test?utm_source=et&utm_medium=email&utm_content=https%3a%2f%2fwww.choice.com.au%2fhealth-and-body%2fbeauty-and-personal-care%2fskin-care-and-cosmetics%2farticles%2fmosaic-brands-hand-sanitiser-fails-nmi-test&utm_campaign=Insider_20200716

"The COVID-19 crisis has brought out the best in some businesses. In others, not so much.

(For evidence of the many acts of consumer kindness we've been tracking, look no further than our Shiny Awards.)

While Mosaic Brands is hardly the only offender out there, we've kept the spotlight on this business because of its shoddy treatment of customers during the COVID-19 crisis on a number of counts.

And also because the continuing bad behaviour comes from a major business ($45.5 million in revenue in 2018–19, up 22% from the previous financial year) whose well-known clothing brands include Rockmans, Katies, Millers, Rivers, Noni B, Beme, Autograph and Crossroads."