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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| In Victoria today, 7 new local cases and no new case acquired overseas. The Government says that "Investigations continue into a locally-acquired case reported yesterday. The remaining six local cases are all linked to current outbreaks and were in quarantine during their infectious period." |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | I didn't get to post NSW's figures from yesterday. Here they are:
| Quote: | | NSW recorded 177 new locally acquired cases |
| Quote: | | Forty-seven cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 22 cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Forty-six cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 62 cases remains under investigation. |
So, at least 68 and up to 130 of the new cases were in the community for part or all of their infectious period. The numbers alone are of great concern. The difference between the two is even more concerning, since it reflects the fact that NSW cannot now say for certain what's going on in relation to about 1/3 of the new cases. |
Apart from detailing the likelihood that the present NSW restrictions (at least) will need to continue into mid-September (at least), the following ABC article has an interesting graphical representation of the trend in the numbers, depicting the growth of the "wild" cases: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-29/sydney-four-week-covid-lockdown-not-enough/100331592 |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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NSW, more of the same - but a bit worse today:
| Quote: | | NSW recorded 239 new locally acquired cases of #COVID19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. |
| Quote: | | Eighty-one cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 22 cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Sixty-six cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 70 cases remains under investigation. |
So, at least 88 and up to 158 cases were in the community for part or all of their infectious period. It's getting to the point where they're only tracing and fully isolating about 1/3 of their new cases. |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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110,000 tests yesterday has to also put a drain on the system getting results back promptly which adds to the time lag.
People just stay the phuk at home FFS.
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Dave The Man 
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | In the UK, COVID deaths are still rising by more than 50% on the previous week (516 in the last 7 days, compared with 342 the previous week).
The 7-day moving average of deaths per day was 49 per day a week ago. It is now 74. That figure has doubled in the last 12 days. |
Showing that Opening Now was NOT a Good Idea by England
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I am Da Man |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Dave The Man wrote: | | Pies4shaw wrote: | In the UK, COVID deaths are still rising by more than 50% on the previous week (516 in the last 7 days, compared with 342 the previous week).
The 7-day moving average of deaths per day was 49 per day a week ago. It is now 74. That figure has doubled in the last 12 days. |
Showing that Opening Now was NOT a Good Idea by England |
Doesn't show anything like that, yet.
Deaths are a lag indicator from cases. Cases have stopped going up and are going down. Deaths may keep going up in the short term but if cases continue to go down, deaths will follow.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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ronrat
Joined: 22 May 2006
Location: Thailand
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Irish bloke here decided to leave Thailand and go to Dublin via London as he was sick of the lockdown. Caught Covid back home and died. Had tests here and di the quarantine but it still got him.
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Annoying opposition supporters since 1967. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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Take care mate
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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Here's some useful demographic information from the ABC blog about those whose health has been most affected by COVID so far in the NSW outbreak:
| Quote: | Of 13 deaths in the current outbreak, 11 are aged 70+
There are 54 people in ICU, the breakdown of ages as follows:
2 are in their teens
8 in their 20s
4 in their 30s
3 in their 40s
16 in their 50s
12 in their 60s
9 in their 70s
Of the 54 in the ICU, 50 of them are unvaccinated. Three have had one dose of the AstraZeneca jab. One had one dose of Pfizer. |
Small sample, of course - but the message looks to be get two doses of the appropriate vaccination as soon as you can, whatever age you are. |
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think positive 
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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Had the second AZ yesterday, feel fine!
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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The following link is to Casey Briggs' 3 minute ABC summary of the Doherty Institute modelling of vaccination thresholds for "opening up". That model is apparently to be considered by National Cabinet today, so it's not just "another model". In brief, it seems that the model threshold requires 80% of the entire population (not just adults) and 95% of the population over 70 to be vaccinated. It seems that if we re-open at 70%, rather than 80%, vaccination, the numbers would be disastrous with many thousands of deaths. They think Australia can achieve the 80% by the end of the year and have proposed "Vaxlotto" to help get enough people over the line.
https://youtu.be/lxyXAet7lSs |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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In Victoria, 3 new local cases and 0 new cases acquired overseas.
- 43,542 test results were received.
The Government says that "All new locally-acquired cases are linked to the current outbreaks, and all were in quarantine throughout their entire infectious period". |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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In NSW:
| Quote: | NSW recorded 170 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.
77 are linked to a known case or cluster – 61 are household contacts and 16 are close contacts – and the source of infection for 93 cases is under investigation. |
| Quote: | | Sixty-five cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and ten cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Forty-two cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 53 cases remains under investigation. |
So just over 60% of the new cases today were "wild" - that is, they were infectious in the community for part or all of their infectious period or else the authorities don't know their isolation status. |
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stui magpie
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | - but the message looks to be get two doses of the appropriate vaccination as soon as you can, whatever age you are. |
Yep, some of the negative media on the AstraZeneca shot, supported by politicians and so called experts has been criminal.
AZ is now approved in NSW for anyone over 18. Not because the risks have suddenly reduced but the risks of catching and dying form Covid have increased.
I'm genuinely looking forward to the shrieks of indignation from the unvaccinated when Covid passports are introduced
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| stui magpie wrote: | | Pies4shaw wrote: | | - but the message looks to be get two doses of the appropriate vaccination as soon as you can, whatever age you are. |
Yep, some of the negative media on the AstraZeneca shot, supported by politicians and so called experts has been criminal.
AZ is now approved in NSW for anyone over 18. Not because the risks have suddenly reduced but the risks of catching and dying form Covid have increased.
I'm genuinely looking forward to the shrieks of indignation from the unvaccinated when Covid passports are introduced |
Agree we could be bit more Further down the Track IF Media and Goverment scared people Uneedly from AZ Vaccine
Though a Lockdown sure speeds up the Vaccinations
Watch Most of the Anti-Vaxxer Idiots change there mind once they are told IF they want to do anything they need to be Vaccinated
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I am Da Man |
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