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Coronavirus 3 - Al Pacino's turn to mumble

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Pies4shaw Leo

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Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:16 pm
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The PM says 30,000 (extra) people would be dead in Australia but for the Australian response.
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:19 pm
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Professor from the Doherty Institute is up to explain their advice to National Cabinet about vaccine thresholds.

Vaccines are a key part of the answer but not the whole. 50 and 60% coverage would mean rapidly escalating outbreaks. At 70%, lockdowns can "ease".

The "R" number for Delta is effectively double that of the original strain. She has a really good graphic that shows the combination of basic hygiene methods, vaccine and social restrictions required to stop spread at various levels of vaccination. 80% brings it, on their modeling, to just above 1 (so the outbreaks would spread but not rapidly).
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:35 pm
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Vaccine options - "oldest first" versus "all adults" modeled. They have produced an age/transmission matrix.

Eg, with the flu, children are the peak spreaders. With COVID, it is actually young adults. The plan now is to move emphasis from direct protection of the elderly to vaccinating the "transmitters". By vaccinating adults, you protect children (and older adults, as well).
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:38 pm
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Young Josh is up, now. "The cost of lockdowns is very significant". Stage 4 $3.2 billion per week. Stage 3, $2.35 billion per week.

Vaccination is the way out of this crisis.

Short, sharp lockdowns are the most cost effective way of handling the virus at the current time. At 50% and 60% vaccination rates, it is 5 times as costly not to do an early lockdown.

At 50% vaccination, rates, the cost of getting onto the outbreaks early its over $500 million a week. At 80%, it's down to $140 million a week.

Until we get to 70% and above, the economic imperative is that governments must move fast to get lockdowns onto outbreaks.
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:19 pm
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I expect that the Doherty Institute's slide presentation will be made available. If that happens, I'll post a link here - it is very interesting (accepting, of course, that it is just a model, not a prediction of the future).

In the meantime, here's the link to the presser on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EhN6YT9-cI

Assuming it stays up in this form, the Professor's contribution is from about 19 minutes in (be nice about that - the count is from the end of the video, not the start).
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Pies4shaw Leo

pies4shaw


Joined: 08 Oct 2007


PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:35 pm
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Here are the slides the Professor spoke to today: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21032272-doherty-modelling-slides?responsive=1&title=1

Here is the modelling report provided by Doherty Institute on 30 July 2021 to National Cabinet: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21032273-doherty-modelling-national-plan?responsive=1&title=1

If it helps to say, I found the slide at page 6 of the first document to be the most interesting. It sets out a helpful summary of that which the modellers consider to be necessary to deal with the Delta strain, even at 80% vaccine coverage. In short, it represents that, by virtue of its lower reproductive rate, the original virus could be contained by Test, Trace, Isolate and Quarantine (TTIQ) alone but that Delta requires TTIQ, 80% vaccine coverage and occasional Public Health and Social Measures (ie, lockdown and like restrictions) to keep the reproduction rate below 1 (so that an outbreak ends).
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 7:03 pm
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Interesting, thanks for putting those up.

Well presented and seemingly well researched data, I like that they declare that they're overestimating deaths at each point, painting somewhat of a worst case scenario in each instance rather than the sunny optimistic view.

All things going to plan we should be opened up like a mother in laws mouth by the end of summer

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pietillidie 



Joined: 07 Jan 2005


PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:22 pm
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David wrote:
Calling for anything else is just going back to square one and saying that you're happy for the virus to run rampant and for more people to die so that we can open up and get back to normality (which is, of course, what we all crave deep down – the anti-lockdown brigade aren't somehow more connected to that desire than the rest of us are). Opposing that is not fear; it's harm minimisation, backed up by a considerable amount of data. That's it.

I agree with you instinctively, but that's the easy bit and you can't trust your instincts on these things. The hard bit is assessing an acceptable risk level vis-a-vis other risks you/we deem acceptable, otherwise your view may amount to emotive special pleading in disguise; you wouldn't know. You have to go further and test your position against your own existing risk profile, for starters. Then you have the behavioural practics of that; i.e., sometimes you go for a view that is inconsistent because somehow it still works better in implementation. But you can't deal with that until you test your views on risk more generally. Even operating instinctively at some point you have to make a more precise call.

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David Libra

I dare you to try


Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:55 pm
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Well, that’s all I’m asking for: precision. When it’s safe enough to open up because enough of us have been vaccinated, then I think we can do the maths and work out whether risk of viral spread has reached a low tipping point of acceptability such that we can ride out the next outbreak without turning to lockdowns. That will be a matter for calm and informed reasoning, and there may well be reasonable disagreement about where to draw that line.

As things are now, however, these IPA guys are operating on pure ideology, as they have from the beginning, and we should thank whichever deity we prefer every day that their advice wasn’t followed.

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Last edited by David on Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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think positive Libra

Side By Side


Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere

PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:58 pm
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Us? You’ve had your shots?
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David Libra

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Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda

PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 10:01 pm
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Not yet – nothing’s changed for either my age cohort or family history considerations from the situation I described a few pages back. I have a friend with serious health issues that puts her at particular risk of COVID complications who had to cry in a GP’s clinic just the other week to get a shot booked. We’re simply not at a point yet where we have enough supply to cover demand, so I can assure you I’m not personally holding the country back from herd immunity status.
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stui magpie Gemini

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto

PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:55 am
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^

Pretty sure you could wander in and get some AstraZeneca if you wanted to.

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roar 



Joined: 01 Sep 2004


PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:20 am
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Re stui's post: Europeans are generally less risk averse than us in most areas of life so it's not surprising they look at us and gasp at the thought f all these lockdowns, Even last year our reaction was seen as over the top.
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