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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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I was listening to Shifter and Twomeys mock draft on the AFL website and what made it interesting is that by factoring in the N G A bids, it reads as a “ truer “ indication as to how the draft would unfold. It also correctly excludes the two G C S zone pre selections which further adds to the authenticity of how the night will unfold. Their draft was based on the picks as they currently stand ( it doesn’t include the possibility of us trading in our future first rounder )
Points of interest - picks 14 and 16 effectively become 17 and 21 on the night.
Also according to their mock draft, McInnes was first picked by the Demons as the 22nd player selected on the night. If this was as it unfolded in the real world, it would be the absolute perfect outcome for us.
The kid is a raw talent but he is not the messiah
Also of interest was the big number of interstate players in the first 20 selections. So many of the interstate kids got game time in 2020 and that also included a bit of senior WAFL and SANFL exposure. Most of the interstate U18 mids are serious ball magnets. They had us selecting the two S A mids / high half forwards in Cook and Powell, which is far from any certainty when you’re coming in around the late teens.
This also means there should be some real Vic gems later in the draft that have enjoyed very little exposure in 2020 and this is where hopefully we can unearth a smokie or two later in the order.
Only eight more sleeps |
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Boogie Knights
Joined: 18 Sep 2015
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^^^ Interesting that they had us selecting 2 x mids plus a 3rd in Reef... I guess all the talls were off the board when we entered.
Just been reading that Nik Cox is rising rapidly up draft boards and will absolutely not last to our first pick. We've been linked to him and if genuine interest is there, we'd be looking to trade up.
The net result we may be looking for from the draft could be bringing next years 1st into this year and trading up for a pick to select Cox, and then back to provide the points to select Reef with some additional upgrading of usable late picks - possibly into the 2nd or 3rd round. There's a fair few clubs that won't be using their picks from the 3rd round on, so it could be a good opportunity, especially with so many list spots to fill.
On that, I doubt we'll fill all remaining spots through the draft as it ties us to those players for multiple years (granted on affordable salaries) and reduces flexibility. I think we'll pick up a DFA or 2 on 1 year deal/s. |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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^ ^ ^
Agree, I think we’re all hoping we trade out first round future and go into this draft with something around pick 10.
That puts us in Cox, Reid territory for promising 200cm talls ( albeit both different types of talls )
The other option is to bundle up 14 and 16 and hope that suits someone with a pick in the top 10. Both the Kangas ( 11 ) or bombers ( 8 ) may be a chance to split for volume rather than roll the dice on one player only at that pick.
Both clubs would have already made selections earlier, so that opportunity is real. That would still leave us trading out our 2021 future as a separate opportunity.
I have felt all along there will likely be a bit of pick swapping activity on the night with such a mixed bag of talent and differing opinions in this draft.
We could very easily have the scenario where the Kangas say we want to select Cox with our pick 11 but if he’s gone by the time it’s our pick, then we will trade it out for Collingwoods future first rounder.
There will be so much to play out as this draft night rolls on. |
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Boogie Knights
Joined: 18 Sep 2015
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I like the athleticism of Cox, but he sees himself as a KPD primarily, with the ability to swing forward if required.
Essendon's pick 8 is a real possibility with discussions already occurring. I agree a few pick swaps will be contingent on player availability. Our goal should be moving up as high as we can to get our preferred player, then banking enough points to cover Reef, plus improving the position of our later picks. |
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Presti35
Dick Lee for Legend Status
Joined: 05 Oct 2001 Location: London, England
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in 2020 it was calculated that we had the third oldest list.
I'll be interested to see where we sit now. _________________ A Goal Saved Is 2 Goals Earned! |
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Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005 Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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We are Re-Building _________________ I am Da Man |
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The Boy Who Cried Wolf
Joined: 26 Sep 2013 Location: We prefer free speech - you know it's right
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Dave The Man wrote: | We are Re-Building |
Well obviously, but its all hush hush you know... _________________ All Aboard!! Choo Choo!!! |
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Cruisinwithdids
Joined: 21 Sep 2016
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We are ‘pivoting’ |
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Piesnchess
piesnchess
Joined: 09 Jun 2008
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Presti35 wrote: | in 2020 it was calculated that we had the third oldest list.
I'll be interested to see where we sit now. |
I would say, about fourth youngest, easily now. ! Great ! _________________ Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb. |
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glasseyevfx
Joined: 01 Jul 2017 Location: Gold Coast
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Dave The Man wrote: | We are Re-Building |
I'm not sure its that simple. We've had a steady stream of young talent coming through for a while. Yes we're rebuilding but this isn't the only year we're seeing it.
I'm hoping for some good results with Ruscoe, Rantall and Kelly. IQ has already made the jump as a regular.
Point is, as a rebuild I don't think we're going to be spending much time if any in the wilderness. _________________ We shall set our course by the stars and not ships that pass in the night |
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Boogie Knights
Joined: 18 Sep 2015
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Given there will be very little substantive change to our week in week out best 22, it's not really a rebuild. Of the players departing, only Treloar, Philips and Stephenson were in the discussion for best 22.
Philips was passed by Daicos, Stephenson was in and out of the team and his form dropped well away, and Treloar when fit was a definite best 22.
The retirees were either unable to take the park, or depth.
So we've really only lost one best 22 player and some depth. You'd hope internal improvement and development would provide at least 1 new best 22 player each season (such as Daicos last season) which should cover Treloar - depending on positions.
We look to be in pretty good shape with very little change to our 22 while bringing in a substantial injection of youth. |
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Piesnchess
piesnchess
Joined: 09 Jun 2008
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Bottom line is, if they played few games or not, we got rid of a lot of list cloggers, who contributed little to our cause, now we can top up with promising kids, thats the way too go now. _________________ Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.
Chess and Vodka are born brothers. - Russian proverb. |
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BazBoy
Joined: 11 Sep 2014
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Currently our six picks are spread
14—16—65—70–75—92. According to AFL Live _________________ I'm not arguing--just explaining why i am right |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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BazBoy wrote: | Currently our six picks are spread
14—16—65—70–75—92. According to AFL Live |
In real terms, that probably means a significant points deficit in 2021 after picking up McInnes and a number of left over picks in the late fifties / early sixties in this years draft.
The above won’t pan out anywhere near as bad as it looks on paper.
The below scenario is based on the likelihood of trading out our 2021 first rounder.
BEST outcome on the draft night could yet be a pick between 8 - 11, 14, 16, McInnes and up to two further picks early in the fourth round.
Note - any deficit of points arising from draft night won’t impact our ability to secure Daicos the following year.
Last edited by Pies2016 on Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:35 am; edited 1 time in total |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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Cruisinwithdids wrote: | We are ‘pivoting’ | _________________ “I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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