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| Match a High Reef Bid or Not? |
| Yes |
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[ 18 ] |
| No |
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18% |
[ 4 ] |
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| Total Votes : 22 |
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burnsy17 
Joined: 10 Aug 2003
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Can someone help me out here....
If we’re required to take 6 more players into 2021, and we use up a few picks on points for McInness, then with what remaining picks do we pick the requisite 5 other blokes with?
Does this mean we’re picking up a few delisted free agents on thurs to make up the balance in players?
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think positive 
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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| scoobydoo wrote: | | think positive wrote: | | Dave The Man wrote: | Guy on Bigfooty who they say Know Reef has said he has told other Teams he only wants to play for Collingwood.
IF he goes to another team he will just ask to be Traded to Collingwood |
Maybe he likes our culture- that’s a scary thought right there! |
What’s wrong with the culture? That’s a little deeming to guys like Pendels & Tay. If there was a problem then they’re gone now. |
yeah nah, pendles and Tay are definitely in the clear, i was more referring to the club in general! and if you think its all hunky dorey, then go you!!!
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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| burnsy17 wrote: | Can someone help me out here....
If we’re required to take 6 more players into 2021, and we use up a few picks on points for McInness, then with what remaining picks do we pick the requisite 5 other blokes with?
Does this mean we’re picking up a few delisted free agents on thurs to make up the balance in players? |
i wondering this too, it doesnt add up!!
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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| think positive wrote: | | burnsy17 wrote: | Can someone help me out here....
If we’re required to take 6 more players into 2021, and we use up a few picks on points for McInness, then with what remaining picks do we pick the requisite 5 other blokes with?
Does this mean we’re picking up a few delisted free agents on thurs to make up the balance in players? |
i wondering this too, it doesnt add up!! |
Ok, here we go.
All clubs start with an indicative draft order through to end of round 8.
Pies will start the night with 14, 16, 65, 66, 68 (end of fourth round ) 75, 91, 105, and 122.
However, in the case of N G A / F S points, they only have a declining value through to the end of round four.
Re McInnes - if his name was to be called out after our pick 16 on the night, then the Pies would give up all their remaining points accumulated through to end of round four.
This means we would hand over 65, 66 and 68 and the remaining points deficit then comes off our first selection in the 2021 draft ( won’t stop us drafting Daicos, just makes it more problematic )
That all means at the end of securing McInnes, we are then left with 75, 91, 105 and 122.
Normally that would be horrendous and a very long night but because so many clubs won’t be making many selections due to shorter lists, our last couple indicative picks will drop down towards the sixties as the draft wears on.
Example - when clubs start passing in the fourth round, our pick 75 works further down the order with every pass that comes before it. Our 91 and 105 could effectively become the next two picks immediately after our adjusted 75. As soon as a club passes, their night is done. Once a club passes in the fourth round, they are also passing their fifth, sixth, seventh selections also.
We could easily end up with the last two picks of the draft in the late fifties / early sixties. This is the year to have a couple late picks because so many Vic kids are unknown quantities.
Remember, these selection numbers are at the start of the night but the pick numbers will change constantly as the night wears on.
Only one more sleep. |
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mattdally
Joined: 21 Feb 2003
Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Do our points adjust during the evening?
For example - Dogs match pick 1 from Crows bid, they essentially have to use all of their picks (29, 33, 41, 42, 52, 54) that come before our pick 65 to make up the 2400 points for pick 1 less the discount (leaving them with 89 points).
Does that mean pick 65's value is now higher as it moves up the draft to 59?
This would mean Dogs selection after pick 1 would slide to 66 (based on 89 points remaining).
Instead of 65, 66, 69, 75 - currently 229 points, we would move those picks up the order and end up with 59, 61, 62, 64 and 71 - giving us 423 points.
This is not considering that Port Adelaide will likely need to match top 15 pick for their academy player, and the Swans for one or both of theirs too.
We could end up with 4 picks inside the top 50 before a bid comes for Reef.
Anyone know the rules??   |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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^ ^ ^
The moment a club matches any N G A / F S bid, then everyone’s following selections are adjusted accordingly. The points are then taken from the clubs next selection ( s ) AT THE TIME the bid was matched.
Example - we start the night at #14 but it drifts out to # 16 by the time MCInnes is the 15th player called out. Should we match it, our points calculation is done against our new points total relating to # 16 ( our new #18 remains unaffected ) not the # 14 points total we started the night with. You win some, you lose some.
All our selections will fluctuate either way till around the early forties ( my best guess ) and then all clubs fourth round picks onwards will begin to come in very quickly from then on. They will come in quickly for two reasons 1 ) clubs starting to pass and 2 ) points having been chewed up by clubs with a “ million “ late third / fourth round selections to pay for their matched bids.
It’s going to change a lot over the night. Even after pick one in the draft, our picks in the sixties will have all come in a few spots, although that won’t last for long. |
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MJ23
Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Location: Sydney
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I just think the guys a unique talent with attributes we need now and into the future.
Not only that, he wants to come to us.
I’d be taking him.
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"Even when Im old and gray, I wont be able to play but Ill still love the game"
Michael Jordan |
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MJ23
Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Location: Sydney
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| Pies2016 wrote: | | think positive wrote: | | burnsy17 wrote: | Can someone help me out here....
If we’re required to take 6 more players into 2021, and we use up a few picks on points for McInness, then with what remaining picks do we pick the requisite 5 other blokes with?
Does this mean we’re picking up a few delisted free agents on thurs to make up the balance in players? |
i wondering this too, it doesnt add up!! |
Ok, here we go.
All clubs start with an indicative draft order through to end of round 8.
Pies will start the night with 14, 16, 65, 66, 68 (end of fourth round ) 75, 91, 105, and 122.
However, in the case of N G A / F S points, they only have a declining value through to the end of round four.
Re McInnes - if his name was to be called out after our pick 16 on the night, then the Pies would give up all their remaining points accumulated through to end of round four.
This means we would hand over 65, 66 and 68 and the remaining points deficit then comes off our first selection in the 2021 draft ( won’t stop us drafting Daicos, just makes it more problematic )
That all means at the end of securing McInnes, we are then left with 75, 91, 105 and 122.
Normally that would be horrendous and a very long night but because so many clubs won’t be making many selections due to shorter lists, our last couple indicative picks will drop down towards the sixties as the draft wears on.
Example - when clubs start passing in the fourth round, our pick 75 works further down the order with every pass that comes before it. Our 91 and 105 could effectively become the next two picks immediately after our adjusted 75. As soon as a club passes, their night is done. Once a club passes in the fourth round, they are also passing their fifth, sixth, seventh selections also.
We could easily end up with the last two picks of the draft in the late fifties / early sixties. This is the year to have a couple late picks because so many Vic kids are unknown quantities.
Remember, these selection numbers are at the start of the night but the pick numbers will change constantly as the night wears on.
Only one more sleep. |
Yes spot on. Hine gave a bit away. Many clubs will use less than 3 picks and those late picks of ours will come in a long way - could be in the 50s.
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"Even when Im old and gray, I wont be able to play but Ill still love the game"
Michael Jordan |
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Pies2016 wrote: | | think positive wrote: | | burnsy17 wrote: | Can someone help me out here....
If we’re required to take 6 more players into 2021, and we use up a few picks on points for McInness, then with what remaining picks do we pick the requisite 5 other blokes with?
Does this mean we’re picking up a few delisted free agents on thurs to make up the balance in players? |
i wondering this too, it doesnt add up!! |
Ok, here we go.
All clubs start with an indicative draft order through to end of round 8.
Pies will start the night with 14, 16, 65, 66, 68 (end of fourth round ) 75, 91, 105, and 122.
However, in the case of N G A / F S points, they only have a declining value through to the end of round four.
Re McInnes - if his name was to be called out after our pick 16 on the night, then the Pies would give up all their remaining points accumulated through to end of round four.
This means we would hand over 65, 66 and 68 and the remaining points deficit then comes off our first selection in the 2021 draft ( won’t stop us drafting Daicos, just makes it more problematic )
That all means at the end of securing McInnes, we are then left with 75, 91, 105 and 122.
Normally that would be horrendous and a very long night but because so many clubs won’t be making many selections due to shorter lists, our last couple indicative picks will drop down towards the sixties as the draft wears on.
Example - when clubs start passing in the fourth round, our pick 75 works further down the order with every pass that comes before it. Our 91 and 105 could effectively become the next two picks immediately after our adjusted 75. As soon as a club passes, their night is done. Once a club passes in the fourth round, they are also passing their fifth, sixth, seventh selections also.
We could easily end up with the last two picks of the draft in the late fifties / early sixties. This is the year to have a couple late picks because so many Vic kids are unknown quantities.
Remember, these selection numbers are at the start of the night but the pick numbers will change constantly as the night wears on.
Only one more sleep. |
Well explained. Thanks. Does that mean we're guaranteed to pick up a Scotty Bunrs with our the the lat pick at 55 tonight 
I don't think we'll be selecting Reef McInness (friggin Adelaide and friggin Essendon) as the bids will be too high for us early on.
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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^ ^ ^
This is the draft where a couple clubs will pluck some real gems with late selections. There will probably be a lot of Vic midfielders go late in this draft and that doesn’t mean they’re speculative, it just means they had no exposed form in 2020.
It’s a big risk if the Crows pick McInnes with their second pick, simply because he’s got strong family ties in Victoria. I still think the Crows would be better served to go with either Cook or Powell who are both locals and tipped to go in the early teens anyway.
The top six will pick themselves ( but the order is still a mystery ) and then it opens up. McInnes could go anywhere from 10 - 25, so buckle up cause it’s going to be an anxious wait. |
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Boogie Knights
Joined: 18 Sep 2015
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I think Essendon are the real risk for an early Reef bid and I recall reading somewhere that he's an Essendon supporter. (as an aside, wouldn't it be great if we had first dibs on kids who supported us? Phillips and McDonald would both be ours!)
If the bid comes somewhere in the consecutive picks (whatever they turn out to be), I think we would need to think seriously about passing on it depending on who is still available. My read is that between 6 and about 15, the talent level is pretty even and clubs will likely have considerably differing rankings depending on what they look for and what particular traits they've identified.
If Essendon do bid on Reef early, it means someone like Perkins, Powell, Bruhn, Henry, Macrae (or even Cox / Reid) etc. that Essendon are also linked to will fall. Any and all of those players figure to be in play for Collingwood as a result and it becomes a case of who we realistically see slipping to us and do we value them more than Reef. |
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mattdally
Joined: 21 Feb 2003
Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Looking forward to see how it all unfolds.
Live trading of picks is always interesting.
Wonder if we will attempt to make a move with Hawthorn - McDonald seems likely to be available at their pick if the experts have predicted the pointy end correctly. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| Boogie Knights wrote: | | I think Essendon are the real risk for an early Reef bid ......... |
I agree
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Pies2016
Joined: 12 Sep 2014
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| watt price tully wrote: | | Boogie Knights wrote: | | I think Essendon are the real risk for an early Reef bid ......... |
I agree |
Ok, thinking that through. That bid would come with the last of their three consecutive picks. Pick 8 would likely become pick 10 ( after two likely N G A bids before their 8 )
Should we match that bid, then after our 20 % discount, we would be required to come up with points totalling our first pick ( amended to 16 ) and one late pick in the sixties.
Remember, our first pick would have drifted out to 16 ( or even 17 ) by the time the Bombers called him out.
This means we would have effectively given up pick 16 for McInnes. That seems fair and reasonable. Not the bargain we would all hope for but still around the pick he has been linked to for the last 12 months.
We would then go again with our second pick at around 18 / 19 under the above scenario.
It’s not what we ideally want but given we give up our amended 14 ( now 16 ) for him, I would match their bid.
Obviously it also means there is at least one other club who rated him as a number ten pick.
Bring it on ! |
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Dave The Man
Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Location: Someville, Victoria, Australia
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| Boogie Knights wrote: | I think Essendon are the real risk for an early Reef bid and I recall reading somewhere that he's an Essendon supporter. (as an aside, wouldn't it be great if we had first dibs on kids who supported us? Phillips and McDonald would both be ours!)
If the bid comes somewhere in the consecutive picks (whatever they turn out to be), I think we would need to think seriously about passing on it depending on who is still available. My read is that between 6 and about 15, the talent level is pretty even and clubs will likely have considerably differing rankings depending on what they look for and what particular traits they've identified.
If Essendon do bid on Reef early, it means someone like Perkins, Powell, Bruhn, Henry, Macrae (or even Cox / Reid) etc. that Essendon are also linked to will fall. Any and all of those players figure to be in play for Collingwood as a result and it becomes a case of who we realistically see slipping to us and do we value them more than Reef. |
Talk on Essendon on Reef gone Cold by Warming up for Crows
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I am Da Man |
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