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5 from the wing on debut
Joined: 27 May 2016
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | ^ That there are exceptions that prove the rule is not an answer to the political issue. The fact that it happens from very occasional time to very occasional time is neither here nor there for the political, as distinct from legal, process. The research suggests that, at worst, 10% of accusations are false (which means, of course, that, at worst, 90% are likely to be true) but the more sophisticated analysis is that the incidence of false reporting is under 1%. |
The fact that cases like that have been documented are likely to mean that the political decision will mean that there is no change to the law, unless society is now governed by a few people with many different twitter accounts.
I have seen those studies in relation to the percentage of false rape allegations as well as the percentage of rapes that were not reported. Their figures and conclusions are more rubbery than rubber, even if I do sound like Baldrick in saying that. |
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5 from the wing on debut
Joined: 27 May 2016
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| watt price tully wrote: | | 5 from the wing on debut wrote: | | That's right, but couldn't you also say that there is high correlation of women with mental health issues who deliberately self harm and suicide, when those woman have not been sexually assaulted or raped? |
No. |
Psychology/psychiatry and mental health is not my field, but I find it hard to believe that there is not a high correlation between mental health issues and women who deliberately self harm and suicide. |
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watt price tully 
Joined: 15 May 2007
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You left out abuse
In my field there is a pandemic of sexual abuse with people we see: it's staggering & I'm still gobsmacked by just how much of it there is. I do see a skewed sample but abuse and sexual abuse is rife
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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Hard to argue with the logic of this:
"If he were a teacher, would you be happy for him to keep teaching your kids?
In some respects Christian Porter's role is one of a higher public trust than that of the prime minister. He is also accused of committing a heinous crime. That, like it or not, hangs over his head"....
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/03/03/christian-porter-allegations-government-integrity/
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“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | ^ That there are exceptions that prove the rule is not an answer to the political issue. The fact that it happens from very occasional time to very occasional time is neither here nor there for the political, as distinct from legal, process. The research suggests that, at worst, 10% of accusations are false (which means, of course, that, at worst, 90% are likely to be true) but the more sophisticated analysis is that the incidence of false reporting is under 1%. |
It would be interesting to see whether that percentage increases when it comes to public figures, particularly politicians. Most people don't have any motivation to accuse a random person of rape, and would have no reason to put themselves through the arduous process that victims endure when they report what they experienced. But if it's a high-ranking political figure, the prospect of taking down someone like that must surely count for something.
This is why, for instance, I was always a little sceptical about the Brett Kavanaugh and (in some cases) Donald Trump sexual assault allegations – the future of the country actually hung in the balance based on whether or not they attained the positions they were seeking, so I can absolutely imagine someone thinking it might actually be their moral duty to falsely accuse them of a crime like this. In fact, I'd go as far as to say I feel pretty certain that some of the Trump allegations were made up, even despite the evidence we have to suggest that he's very likely been a long-term sexual predator. It still might be that it's 80-90% likely that a given accuser is telling the truth, but I think we perhaps need to approach these political cases with extra caution.
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All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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5 from the wing on debut
Joined: 27 May 2016
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| watt price tully wrote: | You left out abuse
In my field there is a pandemic of sexual abuse with people we see: it's staggering & I'm still gobsmacked by just how much of it there is. I do see a skewed sample but abuse and sexual abuse is rife |
Yes, someone very close to me was a victim of that when she was a child.
It was just as well for the perpetrator, and for myself, that he had disappeared before I found out about it. |
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eddiesmith 
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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@Pie4Shaw
Basic things like innocent until proven guilty and no reason he should be sacked over an unproven allegation.
It’s interesting to watch all the outrage over this allegation and ridiculous calls by certain one eyed posters about his position, yet we had someone accused of rape who stood for the highest office in the land and people accepted the police decision to not proceed.
If this woman was alive and police decided not to proceed on Porters case, the outrage would be off the charts! Just like they currently get outraged when people point out their hypocrisy. |
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stui magpie 
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Joined: 03 May 2005
Location: In flagrante delicto
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| Pies4shaw wrote: | | stui magpie wrote: | ^
So in essence you're saying Bill Shorten is a rapist who got away with it. |
I don't understand your point. I have no interest in Shorten. I think you mistake me for an ALP voter. |
You mistake me for someone who cares who you vote for. I was just taking your comments to the logical conclusion
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Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down. |
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5 from the wing on debut
Joined: 27 May 2016
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| It's now been stated by the police that the woman that made the allegations against Porter met with the police 5 times, never made a written statement to them and a few days before her death, informed the police that she was not proceeding with the matter. |
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think positive
Side By Side
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Location: somewhere
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| 5 from the wing on debut wrote: | | It's now been stated by the police that the woman that made the allegations against Porter met with the police 5 times, never made a written statement to them and a few days before her death, informed the police that she was not proceeding with the matter. |
that should be the end of it. im all for victims rights, everytime. i dont think its fair to hound the guy further, if he is smut as WPT says, they will come out of the woodwork. there are things i did at that age im not about to talk about ever again, and i have always been a law abiding citizen, id hate them to come back and haunt me. its not about statute of limitations, its more common sense. its been how many years?
as for the teacher comment, until he is convicted of something i would not pass judgement, you may know more about him WPT, I dont, so i cant judge him on your feelings.
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You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either! |
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5 from the wing on debut
Joined: 27 May 2016
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| Of course though it won't be the end of it because for the most part it has never been about the alleged victim, it has been about scoring political points. |
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Pies4shaw 
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| David wrote: | | Pies4shaw wrote: | | ^ That there are exceptions that prove the rule is not an answer to the political issue. The fact that it happens from very occasional time to very occasional time is neither here nor there for the political, as distinct from legal, process. The research suggests that, at worst, 10% of accusations are false (which means, of course, that, at worst, 90% are likely to be true) but the more sophisticated analysis is that the incidence of false reporting is under 1%. |
It would be interesting to see whether that percentage increases when it comes to public figures, particularly politicians. Most people don't have any motivation to accuse a random person of rape, and would have no reason to put themselves through the arduous process that victims endure when they report what they experienced. But if it's a high-ranking political figure, the prospect of taking down someone like that must surely count for something.
This is why, for instance, I was always a little sceptical about the Brett Kavanaugh and (in some cases) Donald Trump sexual assault allegations – the future of the country actually hung in the balance based on whether or not they attained the positions they were seeking, so I can absolutely imagine someone thinking it might actually be their moral duty to falsely accuse them of a crime like this. In fact, I'd go as far as to say I feel pretty certain that some of the Trump allegations were made up, even despite the evidence we have to suggest that he's very likely been a long-term sexual predator. It still might be that it's 80-90% likely that a given accuser is telling the truth, but I think we perhaps need to approach these political cases with extra caution. |
Many things are possible in the US that don't happen in real places. Even so, there's a difference between an allegation made against someone who is seeking high office (where one might be more inclined to suspect the timing) - eg, Trump, Kavanaugh or Shorten - and someone who happens to be a politician.
Maybe there is an "if I complain, now, I might stop them being elected/confirmed" phenomenon that might operate in some cases but I'm actually struggling to see any special political motivation in this instance. Of course, there's plenty of political motivation, both ways, now that this is a political football but none of that is relevant to the authenticity of the complaint. |
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eddiesmith
Lets get ready to Rumble
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Location: Lexus Centre
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| But this isn't the victim, it's 'anonymous' friends of the victim. Who knows who they are? Could be being pushed by someone after Porters seat at the next election. |
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watt price tully
Joined: 15 May 2007
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| 5 from the wing on debut wrote: | | Of course though it won't be the end of it because for the most part it has never been about the alleged victim, it has been about scoring political points. |
I think you’ll find her friends think differently and they have been very strong here.
Fortunately or unfortunately as the 4 corners programme attests Porter has some related form
At the same time the timing has been impeccable:
1. Scotty from Marketing saying before he becomes pm that we need to believe victims of abuse
2. Women pollies in the liberal party identifying a culture of abuse and bullying
3. Two women staffers identifying their maltreatment in the Liberal Party
4. The Four Corners Programme in November 2020 researching 3. above and interviewing the women and also identifying Porter as an alleged creep
5. The Australian of the Year being a young woman who was raped and silenced by antiqued laws
Apart from that you could say it was politically opportunistic.
As my old man used to say: “you’ve made your bed now you gotta lie in it”
(I only saw bits of Porter on TV because of work but no matter how you swing it was painful for him)
An enquiry will give him the benefit of clearing his name. A person died and she claimed he raped her. He should be given the chance to clear his name as the burden lies with the claimants (as it were) on the balance of probabilities.
_________________
“I even went as far as becoming a Southern Baptist until I realised they didn’t keep ‘em under long enough” Kinky Friedman |
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Pies4shaw
pies4shaw
Joined: 08 Oct 2007
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| ^ Let it be assumed, for argument's sake, that this is being pushed by someone who wants Porter's seat and is doing this solely for that purpose. That doesn't (and can't) affect the authenticity (or otherwise) of the underlying allegation. |
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